1 / 18

Concept Definition Phase for Clean Electric Power Systems

Concept Definition Phase for Clean Electric Power Systems. Apollo lessons. “ We will put a man on the moon before the end of the decade and return him safely to earth ” JFK May 25, 1961. Start with the ultimate goal Characterize alternative systems Choose a direction.

rosie
Télécharger la présentation

Concept Definition Phase for Clean Electric Power Systems

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Concept Definition Phasefor Clean Electric Power Systems Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  2. Apollo lessons “We will put a man on the moon before the end of the decade and return him safely to earth” JFK May 25, 1961 • Start with the ultimate goal • Characterize alternative systems • Choose a direction Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  3. Clean Energy goal confusion • These are not performance goals but technology options • Assumes that systems scale, the achievement can be incorporated into larger scale systems • Confused by politics and public perceptions Future of Energy objective • Focus on the ultimate objective and whole systems • Derive interim goals derived from ultimate objectives • Big reductions are inevitable • Fossil fuel is a finite resource • Flexible time frame • Sooner is better for health & environment • Climate change may accelerate schedule 30% renewables by 2030 20% wind by 2020 … Big (90%) reduction in fossil fuel consumption Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  4. Classic concept definition Given ultimategoals Develop system concept models to explore, contrast, compare alternative feasible solutions Provide Society with factual feasible choices (m/s B) Follow on phases can be agile Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  5. Allocated wind power goals Compatible with clean, (10% fossil fuel) systems Reliable electric power systems Competitive cost Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  6. Wincharger system • Zenith Radio “farm” (DC) radio • ~ 750,000 systems 1930-1940s • Provided farmers with quality radio! • Radio was most expensive component • Battery sized for 4 days storage • High electricity cost ~ $2/kWh • Unreliable during July-August • Did not survive rural electrification Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  7. Wind systems are inefficient • Robust systems come from interconnection of a large number of independent generators • Reliable clean wind systems require • Full redundancy • Overbuilding wind • Additional transmission assets. Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  8. Wind + fossil fuel + storage* Paper summary • 0.1% fossil fuel system for PJM region appears to be technically feasible • 3x wind energy overbuild, discard 2/3 of electricity • ~ 24 hours storage • Full peak power fossil fuel backup ~8 hrs/yr • Stated cost ~ 38¢/kWh Critique • Extreme events (July) drive system size • $0.38/kWh cost estimate is optimistic (>$0.67/kWh) • Large environmental impact ~24,000 sq miles, the size of West Virginia • Concept is sound but needs classical concept development * Budischak, et al, Cost minimized combinations of wind, solar, storage, Journal of Power Sources 225, 2013, pp. 60-74 Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  9. Basis for system concept trades PJM load 2012 Curtailment begins at 25% • PJM published wind & load data • CY2012 • EIA published cost estimates, • New 2018 installations • Wind, natural gas, nuclear • 15% reserve margin • No wind contribution to system capacity • Full redundancy • No transmission constraints Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  10. All natural gas system • Reference scenario • 100% emissions • Cost includes system reserves Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014 Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  11. NG + wind +ideal storage • Add wind + ideal storage • Concept limit • Ideal storage • Large size, zero cost, 100% efficient • 100% of wind generation displaces natural gas • Line slopes up to the right because wind capital cost exceeds Ngas variable cost Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014 Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  12. Wind without storage Curtailed system cost Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014 • Curtailment at PJM 2012 • Begins at 26% • Bites at 50% Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  13. Grid scale storage Storage state of charge Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014 Storage system impact • Storage size is 2,135 GWh • One day at average load • Estimated cost $200 $/kWh based on Bath Co, VA pumped hydro facility • 1,000 ft vertical elevation • 0.4 sq mile upper reservoir • 105’ level change • 80% round trip efficiency • 68 Bath county facilities required Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  14. Nuclear power Nuclear model Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014 Nuclear on system cost/performance • Nuclear follows daily minimum • Diurnal variations • All Ngas • Ngas & hot water storage Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  15. Comparison with Budischak Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014 Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  16. Retail electricity prices • MD at 8% renewables, mostly hydro pays 11 cts/kWh • Germany with 25% renewables pays 36 cts/kWh • Something is missing! Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014 Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  17. Conclusions • Focus on • Ultimate goals • Complete systems • To do • Transmission upgrades internal to the system • Congestion induced curtailment • Multiple years • Multiple regions • Storage parameter variation • Add solar PV • EIA cost refinement Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

  18. Join the Hangout alex@pavlak.net Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative

More Related