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3.1. Introduction to adaptation

3.1. Introduction to adaptation. Bruno Locatelli, CIRAD-CIFOR. Objectives. To explain why adaptation is important for development To present how adaptation can be mainstreamed into development To present adaptation policies at global and national scales. Outline.

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3.1. Introduction to adaptation

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  1. 3.1. Introduction to adaptation Bruno Locatelli, CIRAD-CIFOR

  2. Objectives • To explain why adaptation is important for development • To present how adaptationcan be mainstreamed intodevelopment • To present adaptation policies at global and national scales

  3. Outline • Why is adaptation important for development? • Mainstreaming adaptation into development • Adaptation policies at global and national scales

  4. 1. Why is adaptation important for development? • Most development activities are sensitive to climate • Current climate variability (CV) • Future climate change (CC) and future climate variability • Examples: • Rain fed agriculture is highly dependent on precipitation patterns • Agroforestry and forestry are sensitive to wind storms • Forest productivity depends on rainfall • Drinking water supply is highly dependent on rainfall and temperature • Infrastructure is sensitive to flooding

  5. Examples: Agriculture Anomalies in June–September rainfall (red) and wet-season rice harvest (blue) in India. Changes in crop growing season under CC. Tropical areas are negatively affected. Source: Darwin 2004 Source: Auffhammer et al. 2006

  6. Example: Water Illustrative map of future climate change impacts on freshwater which are a threat to the sustainable development of the affected regions (Kundzewicz et al. 2008)

  7. Example: Water Watersheds currently under ‘severe water stress’ and with projected increase in water stress because of global change (Alcamo and Henrichs 2002)

  8. Example:National development GDP Growth and Rainfall in Ethiopia Source: The World Bank (2005) in USAID 2007

  9. CC impacts on development:Example of USAID’s objectives (1/2) Impacts of CC Instability Conflicts Undermining of peace efforts Disruption of efforts to strengthen civil society Reduction in participation of marginalized groups Vector-borne diseases Malnutrition Health effects of reduced access to clean water Risk of death from extreme events Pressure on post-disaster systems USAID, 2007

  10. CC impacts on development:Example of USAID’s objectives (2/2) Impacts of CC Crop loss and soil erosion Changes in crop yield Increased incidence of pests and diseases More forest fires Changes in flora and fauna ranges Loss of biodiversity Damage to coasts, coral reefs, and mangroves Losses to livelihoods assets Increased debt burden Increased poverty Decreased hydropower potential Damaged dams due to flooding Changes in energy demand

  11. Vulnerability V=PI-AC Projected Impacts PI=E+S Adaptive Capacity AC Exposure E Sensitivity S How to reduce vulnerability? Decrease E Decrease S Increase AC E.g.: Exposure of cities to flooding: restrict settlements in flood-prone areas, manage watershed E.g.: Exposure of ecosystems to temperature changes:impossible to reduce E.g.: Sensitivity of bridges to flooding:design higher or stronger bridges E.g.: Sensitivity of agriculture to drought:use drought-resistant varieties E.g.: Capacity of society to cope with flooding: reduce poverty, strengthen institutions, raise population awareness, implement alert systems… E.g.: Capacity of ecosystems to cope with CC: reduce other pressures, increase connectivity

  12. 2. Mainstreaming adaptation into development • Depending on challenges: • An adaptation project may be similar to traditional development • An adaptation project may require a new approach • Mainstreaming adaptation into development projects • A general claim • Would lead to more robust projects • But few efforts in that direction • 25% of World Bank’s projects are vulnerable to CV or CC • Only 2% address climate risks (World Bank, 2006 cited by USAID, 2007)

  13. How to design adaptation? • Six steps proposed by USAID (2007) • Flexible approach • Can be applied to an ongoing project

  14. Step 1: Screen for Vulnerability • Basic questions to be addressed: • Is my project sensitive to climate variability? • If it is, it is likely to be sensitive to climate change • Can long-term climate changes introduce other risks to my project? • Other questions: • Is there experience with adaptation in the country? • Have adaptation policies been identified? • Are there barriers to the implementation of adaptation measures? • Can models, tools and practices be adapted from other studies? • What would be the cost of not adapting?

  15. Step 2: Identify Adaptations • Preparatory activities: • Review information on impacts and vulnerabilities • Review other programs with an adaptation component • Solicit advice from experts • Review country policies • Participatory activities: • Meet with stakeholders to discuss vulnerability and adaptation • Consult national and international experts

  16. Step 3: Conduct Analysis • Question • What would be the project performance with and without adaptation, under current and future conditions? • Criteria • Several criteria available • Example of 4 USAID’s pilot studies • Set of criteria selected by stakeholders • Output • Assessment matrix: Adaptation options x Analysis criteria

  17. Steps 4 to 6: Select, Implement and Evaluate Adaptation

  18. Discussion • Based on a case of forestry program • What you would do to assess climate impacts? • What adaptation actions you might choose • How would you apply these 6 steps explained earlier in the case of a forestry program?

  19. For more information

  20. 3. Adaptation policies at global and national scales • UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol • Several provisions relevant to vulnerability and adaptation • Parties are committed to undertaking activities to facilitate adaptation • Specific attention to most vulnerable countries • Small island countries • LDC • Countries with: low-lying coastal areas, arid and semi-arid areas, forested areas, areas prone to natural disasters, areas liable to drought and desertification, fragile ecosystems. • Slow implementation

  21. Recent developments • Guidelines for non-Annex I National Communications • Developed with a Consultative Group of Experts from non-Annex I Parties (CGE) • COP 8 (New Delhi, 2002), Parties adopted revised guidelines • http://unfccc.int/national_reports/non-annex_i_natcom/guidelines_and_user_manual/items/2607.php

  22. Recent developments • Funds, decided in COP7 (Marrakesh, 2001) • LDC Fund • Supports the preparation of NAPAs (National Adaptation Programs of Action) • Starting point for the development and implementation of projects • Around US$ 40M (more pledged) • SCCF (Special Climate Change Fund) • Supports programs that complement those supported by GEF climate change area • US$ 34M • Adaptation Fund • Funded by a share of the proceeds of the CDM (2%) • Between EUR 125M and 750M • At the heart of negotiations: the governing institution • http://unfccc.int/cooperation_and_support/financial_mechanism/items/2807.php Source: Schipper and Stockwell 2006

  23. Recent developments • Work program on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change (COP12, Nairobi, 2006) • International framework implemented by Parties, IGO and NGO, private sector, communities and other stakeholders • Objectives • To help countries improve their understanding of CC impacts and vulnerability • To increase their ability to make informed decisions on how to adapt successfully • Nine areas of work: 1. Methods and tools 2. Data and observations 3. Climate modeling, scenarios and downscaling 4. Climate related risks and extreme events 5. Socio-economic information 6. Adaptation planning and practices 7. Research 8. Technologies for adaptation 9. Economic diversification http://unfccc.int/adaptation/sbsta_agenda_item_adaptation/items/3633.php

  24. Recent developments • Bali Roadmap • In CoP13 (Indonesia) • Roadmap for negotiations before Copenhagen in 2009 • Four building blocks • Mitigation • Adaptation • Financing • Technology • Adaptation is at the same level as mitigation

  25. National Adaptation Policies • NAPAs • National Adaptation Programmes of Action • As of May 2008, 31 out of 49 LDCs have developed their NAPAs • Next step: implementation of projects • National communications • All have a section on vulnerability and adaptation • But sometimes not very consistent • Adaptation projects and policies • Still under developed

  26. Thank you for your attention

  27. References • Adger, W.N., Huq, S., Brown, K., Conway, D. and Hulme, M. 2003 Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Prog. Dev. Studies 3(3):179-195. • Adger, W.N. et al. 2005 Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters. Science 309:1036-1039. • Adger, W.N. 2003 Social capital, collective action and adaptation to climate change. Economic Geography 79:387-404. • Adger, W.N., Arnell, N.W. and Tompkins, E.L. 2005. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Global Environmental Change 15:77-86. • Berkes, F. and Jolly, D. 2001 Adapting to climate change: social-ecological resilience in a Canadian Western Arctic community. Conservation Ecology 5(2):18. • Burton, I. et al. 2006 Adaptation to Climate Change: International Policy Options. Pew Center. • Cutter, S.L., Boruff, B.J. and Shirley, W.L. 2003 Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Social Science Quarterly 84:242-261. • Dow, K. 1992 Exploring differences in our common future(s): the meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change. Geoforum 23:417-436. • Dow, K., Kasperson, R.E. and Bohn, M. 2006 Exploring the social justice implications of adaptation and vulnerability. In: Adger et al. (eds.) Fairness in Adaptation to Climate Change. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. p. 79-96. • Downing, T.E. et al. 2001. Vulnerability Indices: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation. UNEP Policy Series. UNEP, Nairobi.

  28. Eakin, H. 2005. Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: cases from Central Mexico. World Development 33:1923-1938. • Eakin, H. and Luers, A.L. 2006 Assessing human and biophysical vulnerability to global environmental change. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 31. • Folke, C. 2006 Resilience: the emergence of a perspective for socialecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change 16(3):253-267. • Grothmann, T. and Patt, A. 2005 Adaptive capacity and human cognition: the process of individual adaptation to climate change. Global Environmental Change 15:199-213. • Haddad, B.M. 2005 Ranking the adaptive capacity of nations to climate change when socio-political goals are explicit. Global Environmental Change 15:165-176. • Kelly, P.M. and Adger, W.N. 2000 Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation. Climatic Change 47:325-352. • Klein, R.J.T. and Nicholls, R.J. 1999 Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change. Ambio 28:182-187. • Luers, A.L. et al. 2003 A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico. Global Environmental Change 13:255-267. • Morduch, J. 1994 Poverty and vulnerability. American Economic Review 84:221-225. • Mortimore, M.J. and Adams, W.M. 2001 Farmer adaptation, change and 'crisis' in the Sahel. Global Environmental Change 11:49-57. • Naess, L.O., Bang, G., Eriksen, S. and Vevatne, J. 2005 Institutional adaptation to climate change: flood responses at the municipal level in Norway. Global Environ. Change 15:125-138.

  29. O'Brien, K. 2006 Are we missing the point? Global environmental change as an issue of human security. Global Environmental Change 16:1-3. • O'Brien, K.L. et al. 2004 Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India. Global Environmental Change 14:303-313. • Parry, M. and Carter, T. 1994 Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment: A Guide to the IPCC Approach. Earthscan, London. • Pelling, M. and High, C. 2005 Understanding adaptation: what can social capital offer assessments of adaptive capacity? Global Environmental Change 15:308-319. • Sarewitz, D., Pielke, R. and Keykhah, M. 2003 Vulnerability and risk: some thoughts from a political and policy perspective. Risk Analysis 23:805-810 • Smit, B. and Pilifosova, O. 2001 Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity. In: McCarthy et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC Working Group II. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. p. 877-912. • Smith, J.B. et al. 2001 Vulnerability to climate change and reasons for concern: a synthesis. In: McCarthy et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC Working Group II. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. p. 914-967. • Turner II. et al. 2003a A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences US 100:8074-8079.

  30. Turner II. et al. 2003b Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerability analysis: three case studies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences US 100:8080-8085. • UNDP. 2004 Adaptation Policy Framework for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures. www.undp.org • UNEP. 1998 Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies. www.unep.org • USAID. 2007 Adapting to Climate Change Variability and Change: a Guidance Manual for Development Planning. www.usaid.gov • Yohe, G. and Tol, R.S.J. 2002 Indicators for social and economic coping capacity: moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change 12:25-40.

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