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ERCOT Monthly Operational Overview ( March 2012 ) April 12, 2012

ERCOT Monthly Operational Overview ( March 2012 ) April 12, 2012. Grid Operations & Planning. Content. Operations Peak Demand: Actual vs. Forecast On-line Resources: Total at Peak and Wind CPS1 Monthly Performance Historical Peak and Minimum Loads

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ERCOT Monthly Operational Overview ( March 2012 ) April 12, 2012

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  1. ERCOT Monthly Operational Overview (March 2012)April 12, 2012

  2. Grid Operations & Planning

  3. Content • Operations • Peak Demand: Actual vs. Forecast On-line Resources: Total at Peak and Wind • CPS1 Monthly Performance • Historical Peak and Minimum Loads • Day-Ahead Load Forecast Performance • Reliability Unit Commitment Capacity (RUC) by weather zone • Generic Transmission Limits (GTLs) • Advisories, Watches and EEAs • Significant System Incidents • Cooling Reservoir Level Update • Planning Activities • Summary • Generation Interconnection Requests • Wind Capacity ERCOT Public

  4. March 2012 Daily Peak Demand: Hourly Average Actual vs. Forecast, Wind Day-Ahead COPs & On-line Capacity at Peak Note: All data are hourly averages during the peak load hour obtained from COPs, and EMMS. ERCOT Public

  5. March 2012 Actual Wind Output plus Curtailments vs. Wind Day-Ahead COPs for All Hours % of Hours when Estimated Uncurtailed Wind Output >= COP HSLs (Target = 50%) 52% Note: QSEs must use the AWST 50% probability of exceedance forecast as the HSL in their COPs ERCOT Public

  6. March 2012 ERCOT’s CPS1 Monthly Performance CPS1 12 Month Rolling Average = 152.45% ERCOT Public

  7. March 2012 Monthly Peak Actual Demand ERCOT Public

  8. March 2012 Monthly Minimum Actual Demand ERCOT Public

  9. Day-Ahead Load Forecast Performance in March 2012 April 12, 2012 ERCOT Public

  10. Reliability Unit Commitment (RUC) Capacity by weather zone in March 2012 ERCOT Public

  11. March 2012 Generic Transmission Limits (GTLs) GTL: A transmission flow limit more constraining than a Transmission Element’s normal limit established to constrain flow between geographic areas of the ERCOT Transmission System that is used to enforce stability and voltage constraints that cannot be modeled directly in ERCOT’s transmission security analysis applications. Note: This table lists how many times a constraint has been activated to avoid exceeding a GTL limit, it does not imply an exceedance of the GTL occurred. April 12, 2012 ERCOT Public

  12. Advisories and Watches in March 2012 • Advisories issued for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 3000 MW. • Issued 13 Days • Watches issued for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 2500 MW. • 1 Watch issued for PRC below 2500 MW. • Transmission Watches • March 8th At 13:32 ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch due to contingency overload. • March 19th At 13:50 ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch due post contingency overload due to forced outages in Hillsboro area. A TOAP was developed and put in place. • March 26th At 13:56 ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch for the Far West area. • March 27th At 11:31 ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch for the Far West area. • March 29th At 14:47 ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch for the Far West area due to a planned bus outage. • Energy Emergency Alerts • None ERCOT Public

  13. Cooling Reservoir Levels Update – 01 April 2012 * In Feet above Mean Sea Level ERCOT Public

  14. Planning Summary – March 2012 • ERCOT is currently tracking 128 active generation interconnection requests totaling over 34,000 MW. This includes over 19,000 MW of wind generation. • ERCOT is currently reviewing proposed transmission improvements with a total cost of $74.2 Million • Transmission Projects endorsed in 2012 total $394 Million • All projects (in engineering, routing, licensing and construction) total approximately $9.84 Billion • Transmission Projects energized in 2012 total about $108.8 million ERCOT Public

  15. County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (all fuels) March 2012 ERCOT Public

  16. County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (Wind) March 2012 ERCOT Public

  17. Wind Generation – March 2012 ERCOT Public

  18. Generation Interconnection Activity by Fuel – March 2012 ERCOT Public

  19. Generation Interconnection Activity by Project Phase – March 2012 ERCOT Public

  20. Market Operations

  21. Day-Ahead Schedule – March 2012 ERCOT Public

  22. Day-Ahead Electricity And Ancillary Service Hourly Average Prices – March 2012 ERCOT Public

  23. Day-Ahead Vs Real-Time Load Zone SPP(Hourly Average) – March 2012 ERCOT Public

  24. Day-Ahead Vs Real-Time Hub Average SPP (Hourly Average) – March 2012 ERCOT Public

  25. DRUC Monthly Summary – March 2012 ERCOT Public

  26. HRUC Monthly Summary – March 2012 ERCOT Public

  27. Non-Spinning Reserve Service Deployment – March 2012 ERCOT Public

  28. CRR Price Convergence – March 2012 Congestion Revenue Right cost in auction convergence with payment in Day-Ahead Market ERCOT Public

  29. Reliability Services – March 2012 • RUC Cost continue to trend low as compared to previous months. • March 2012 cost was $0.01M, compared to: • A charge of $0M in Feb 2012 • A charge of $0.9M in March 2011 April 12, 2012 ERCOT Public

  30. Ancillary Services – March 2012 • Capacity Services costs were slightly increased from last month. • March 2012 cost was $25.61M, compared to: • A charge of $14.87M in Feb 2012 • A charge of $36.21M in March 2011 ERCOT Public

  31. Energy Settlement – March 2012 Day-Ahead  and Real-Time energy settlement similar to February, but much lower than the average costs in 2011 and reflective of lower prices seen year-to-date in 2012. ERCOT Public

  32. Congestion Revenue Rights (CRR) – March 2012 • Congestion Revenue Rights were fully funded. • Excess funds available for distribution to load. ERCOT Public

  33. Revenue Neutrality – March 2012 • Revenue Neutrality trending higher, increase can be attributed to pockets of local congestion causing prices to spike. • March 2012 was a charge of $8.29M, compared to: • $0.23M in Feb 2012 • $1.13M in Mar 2011 ERCOT Public

  34. Net Uplift to Load – March 2012 • Net uplift to load trending higher, increases can be attributed to overall increases in Revenue Neutrality and Ancillary Services. • March 2012 was a charge of $14.67M, compared to: • $2.5M in Feb 2012 • $27.3M in Mar 2011 ERCOT Public

  35. Advanced Meter Settlement Impacts – March 2012 March 2012: Now settling 4.8M ESIIDs using Advanced Meter data. March 2012: 84.2% of the load in ERCOT is settled with 15-min interval data (AMS, Competitive IDR, and NOIE IDR). ERCOT Public

  36. ERCOT Wide Load Volumes by Meter Type – INITIAL Settlement – March 2012 ERCOT Public

  37. Retail Transaction Volumes – Summary – March 2012 ERCOT Public

  38. Retail Transaction Volumes – Summary – March 2012 Switches Move-Ins Move-Outs Mass Transition ERCOT Public

  39. Retail Performance Measures – Switch – March 2012 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter ERCOT Public

  40. Retail Performance Measures (Priority Move-In) – March 2012 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter ERCOT Public

  41. Retail Performance Measures (Standard Move-In) – March 2012 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter ERCOT Public

  42. Projects Report

  43. ERCOT Portfolio Stoplight Report (as of 4/6/2012) ERCOT Public

  44. ERCOT Portfolio Stoplight Report (as of 4/6/2012) ERCOT Public

  45. ERCOT Portfolio Stoplight Report (as of 4/6/2012) ERCOT Public

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