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U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands & U.S. Virgin Islands Weekly Drought Monitor – Update

U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands & U.S. Virgin Islands Weekly Drought Monitor – Update. Richard R. Heim Jr. NOAA / NESDIS / National Centers for Environmental Information Asheville, North Carolina USA USDM Forum Workshop Bowling Green, KY - September 2019. Overview.

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U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands & U.S. Virgin Islands Weekly Drought Monitor – Update

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  1. U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands & U.S. Virgin Islands Weekly Drought Monitor – Update Richard R. Heim Jr. NOAA / NESDIS / National Centers for Environmental Information Asheville, North Carolina USA USDM Forum Workshop Bowling Green, KY - September 2019

  2. Overview In 2019, the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) coverage was extended to the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) and U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) OCONUS USDM – A New Look How we are doing it – Data & monitoring tools

  3. “OCONUS” (2nd Page) USDM • USAPI and USVI plotted on a “Second Page” USDM • Drought depiction plotted as dots instead of polygons within ArcGIS • Second set of authors • Anthony Artusa, Richard Heim, Curtis Riganti, Brad Rippey, Ahira Sanchez-Lugo, Claire Shield (with Deborah Bathke backup) • Separate listservs for product distribution & communication (feedback)

  4. Size of Islands – HI, PR, USVI, USAPI filled polygon depiction point / dot depiction

  5. USAPI into USDM – Issues  A Different Way of Looking at Drought Kwajalein • Geography: large spatial extent, isolated small islands • Hydrology: few streams or reservoirs, groundwater lenses, no snowpack, rainwater catchment important • Rainwater catchments main source of water for many islands, can provide water for ~ 2 weeks if no rain falls • Tropical Climate: precip mean & S.D. large, T.C.’s important • Agriculture: long-term impacts (USAPI) vs. short-term (CONUS) • Drought: can begin rapidly, intensify rapidly, and end rapidly • Data: few drought indicators, mainly just precipitation & SPI

  6. USAPI Drought Monitoring Criteria • Daily precipitation trigger • Weekly minimum rainfall needed to meet water needs = (monthly min*) / 4 • 2 or 3 consecutive weeks of no rainfall or low (below weekly min) rainfall  Drought onset * Monthly min = 4 or 8 inches, depending on island • Monthly SPI • Can be useful for determining Dx intensity once drought is established, but not for triggering drought • Monthly Percent of Normal Precipitation • Not as useful if normal is too much different from the monthly minimum precip drought trigger • Use monthly precipitation percentiles (ranks) instead

  7. USAPI USDM • Indicators – Mostly just precipitation • Weekly & monthly thresholds, duration of dryness • Precipitation percentiles, SPI • Limited impacts information, Majuro reservoir level • 23 USAPI stations analyzed – drought status applies island-wide • USAPI went operational as part of USDM on the March 5, 2019 map

  8. USVI into USDM – Issues St. Thomas St. John Puerto Rico St. Croix Geography: small islands Hydrology: few streams (ephemeral), groundwater lenses; but no reservoirs, no snowpack; rainwater catchment (cisterns) important Tropical Climate: large seasonality, T.C.’s important Drought: heightened susceptibility to short-term dryness Data: few drought indicators – precipitation, SPI, USGS groundwater

  9. USVI Drought Monitoring Approach • Convergence of Evidence using available (limited) indicators • Precipitation, SPI • Groundwater

  10. USVI USDM • Indicators – Mostly just precipitation • Weekly, Monthly, Seasonal precipitation amount & percent of normal precipitation • Monthly SPI • USGS Groundwater level • Limited impacts information • 5 stations (2 NOAA, 2 CoCoRaHS, 1 unofficial) analyzed – drought status applies island-wide • USVI went operational as part of USDM on the June 4, 2019 map

  11. Remotely-Sensed Indicators Radar-based 7-day Precipitation Amount / USVI Satellite-based 7-day Precipitation Amount / USAPI SPoRT AHPS Satellite-based 7-day NDVI Percent of Average / USVI (Climate Engine)

  12. NDMC ArcGIS Web Tool • For Page 2 map & narrative

  13. Thank You! • WRCC (Western Regional Climate Center) • NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information) • USDA • University of the Virgin Islands • Volunteer observers on the USVI • And probably others whom I’ve forgotten or overlooked • Acknowledgements – This work would not be possible without: • NWS Offices and Partners in the Pacific & PR & USVI; NWS-SR; CPC • PEAC Center (Pacific ENSO Application Climate Center) • NDMC (National Drought Mitigation Center)

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