Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Africa

1. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Africa Josue Dione Director, Food Security and Sustainable Development Division (FSSD) UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA)

2. Outline • Agriculture, food security and poverty reduction • Under-investment in, under-capitalization and poor performance of agriculture • Implications for agricultural R&D • Compounding impacts of climate change • Additional challenges for agricultural R&D

3. Agriculture, Food Security and Poverty Reduction • 70% of the poor in Africa live in rural areas • Livelihoods of 90% of rural people depend directly or indirectly on agriculture • 60% of the total labor force is employed in agriculture • Large proportion of urban employment is linked to agriculture (esp. women in informal sector) • Urban poor spend 60% of their budget on food • Strong link between agricultural growth and overall economic growth (1.5-2.7 multipliers)

4. Under-investment in Agriculture • Decrease in the proportion of public spending on agriculture from 6.4% in 1980 to 4.5% in 2002 – AU Maputo 2003 Summit commitment to increase this at 10% minimum by 2008 • Decline in public spending on agricultural research from 0.93% of agricultural GDP in 1981 to 0.69% in the 1990s (compared to 2.4% in industrial countries) • Fall of official development assistance to agriculture by 65% between the late 1980s and late 1990s

5. Under-capitalization of Agriculture • Only 6% of the arable is irrigated, against 40% in Asia • 20 kg of fertilizer per hectare of arable land in Africa (8 kg/ha in SSA), i.e. 22% (and 9%) of world average • Tractors per 1000 ha of arable land: 3 times less than in Asia and 8 times less than in Latin America • Road density is 2.5 times less than in Latin America and 6 times less than in Asia • Poor rural access to energy and telecommunications • Institutions of agricultural education, research and extension are poorly staffed, under-equipped and under-funded

6. Poor Performance of Agriculture • Land productivity at 42% of that in Asia and 50% of that in Latin America • Labor productivity at 60% of that in Asia and Latin America • Sharp fall of share of global agricultural exports from 15% in the mid-1960s to 5% in 2000 • Food imports increasing at 3.2% per year, from US$ 13 bn in 1990-92 to US$ 20 bn in 2002-04 • Close to US$ 2bn of food aid per year • Yet, over 25% of Africa’s population is undernourished

7. Implications for Agricultural R&D • Challenge of addressing, for structural and sustainable development of African agriculture, issues of/gaps in: • Technologies • Infrastructure • Institutions • Policies • Not only at farm level, but throughout value chains of strategic food and agricultural commodities (maximum efficiency + minimum transactions costs)

8. Compounding Impacts of Climate Change

9. Compounding Impacts of Climate Change • Projected impacts of CC on agriculture from IPCC Assessment, Stern Review and other major studies: • Reduced rainfall: up to 10% decrease in Southern Africa and parts of the Horn of Africa by 2050 • Reduced water resources from major glaciers (Kilimanjaro, Kenya, Rwenzori), major lakes (Victoria, Chad) and rivers (e.g. Nile, Niger, Zambezi) • Reduced area suitable to agriculture: increase in arid and semi-arid areas by 60-90 million hectares

10. Compounding Impacts of Climate Change • Reduced soil moisture storage capacity, quality and fertility with higher temperatures • Reduced length of growing seasons: by more than 20% in the Sahel by 2020 with an additional 0.4°C • Increased proliferation of pests and incidence of pest attacks • Constrained availability of human resources (labour) due to expanded range and prevalence of vector-borne diseases (in addition to HIV/AIDS)

11. Compounding Impacts of Climate Change • Reduced crop yields from rain-fed agriculture by up to 50% in many countries – and income by 11% (irrigated agriculture) to 31% (dryland agriculture) – Cline 2007 • Reduced productivity and increased production cost of livestock (reduced feed and fodder availability) • Reduced fisheries resources from lakes due to rising temperatures • Increased food insecurity and poverty for hundreds of people more, under business as usual

12. Additional Challenges for Agricultural R&D • Developing value chains of selected strategic food and agricultural commodities within a framework of regional integration • Adopted by AU/NEPAD Food Security Summit of December 2006: • Rice, maize, legumes, cotton, oil palm, beef, dairy, poultry and fisheries products at continental level • Cassava, sorghum and millet at regional level

13. Additional Challenges for Agricultural R&D • Linking the NEPAD/CAADP pillars around such strategic commodities within a framework of regional integration – Regional Strategic Commodity Belts • Sustainable land and water management pillar • Infrastructure, trade capacities and market access pillar • Food supply chain and emergency response pillar • Research, technology dissemination and adoption – Regional R&D Centers of Excellence

14. Additional Challenges for Agricultural R&D • Some major R&D issues to ponder: • Comparative advantage: Re. The development of Regional strategic commodity belts and value chains -- How would climate change impact agro-ecological zones, comparative potential and advantage for different commodities, specialization/diversification? • Growth and adaptation strategies: What are the implications of CC for research on crop and animal breeding, water resources management, soil fertility management, food crisis prevention strategies, etc.?

15. Additional Challenges for Agricultural R&D • Some major R&D issues to ponder: • Land for forests vs. agriculture: What are the tradeoffs between expanding land under agriculture and keeping forests for CC mitigation? • Cropping for food, feed, fiber or fuel: What are the recommendable options, their costs/benefits and R&D implications? THANK YOU …