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System Dynamics Mapping and Modeling for Tobacco Control Working with Experts to Illustrate the Approach

System Dynamics Mapping and Modeling for Tobacco Control Working with Experts to Illustrate the Approach. George P. Richardson Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany, SUNY. April Roggio Rockefeller College University at Albany, SUNY. Peter Otto

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System Dynamics Mapping and Modeling for Tobacco Control Working with Experts to Illustrate the Approach

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  1. System Dynamics Mapping and Modeling for Tobacco ControlWorking with Experts to Illustrate the Approach George P. RichardsonRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at Albany, SUNY April Roggio Rockefeller CollegeUniversity at Albany, SUNY Peter Otto School of Business Dowling College

  2. System Dynamics in ISIS • Initial problem definition meeting, November 2003 • Rapid mapping and illustrative modeling, reported on in December 2003 • Further modeling over spring and summer 2004, but without further expert input • Report writing led by the ISIS Team

  3. The November Meeting: Initial Problem Conceptualization • Hopes and Fears • Dynamics • Policy options • Historical • Speculative

  4. Defining the Problem Dynamically:the Tobacco Use Sector

  5. Idealized Graphs(Reference Behavior Modes) Interest in cessation Smokers in the US

  6. Tobacco Industry

  7. Idealized Graphs Awareness of TI behavior Interest in cessation TI Marketing Activities Smokers in the US

  8. Tobacco Control

  9. Government Intervention

  10. Idealized Graphs Awareness of TI behavior Interest in cessation Smokers in the US TI Marketing Activities Funding for Tobacco Control Strength of Tobacco Control Programs

  11. Smoke-free workplaces (voluntary and state regulations)>> changes in social norms Increased unit cost through taxes (industry compensated, variability between states) Decreased agricultural subsidies Warning labels Youth access restrictions Advertising restrictions (TV, outdoors) Ad campaigns (counteradvertising) Availability of cessation meds Product regulation Comprehensive school and educational programs State bans on cigarette sales Purchase, use, and possession prosecution Federal funding The Group’s List of Policies Tried

  12. Licensing merchants Removed from k-rations (military) Military parity prices Behavioral programs to help people quit (~24% of adults smoke now -- a decrease) Less smoking in movies (this goes up and down) Litigation (move from laws to litigation) Public health service guidelines, CDC best practices, sgrs, NCI monographs Fire safe cigarettes Tar and nicotine testing methods/ harm reduction FTC monitoring of advertising and promotion ($) Increased research funding Coalition development More Policies tried

  13. Federal support for national quitlines Criminal charges against the tobacco industry Repeal of federal cigarette labeling in advertising Ratify and implement FCTCFDA regulation of tobacco Modify FTC testing methods Total ban on advertising Increased federal excise taxes to a minimum of $2 per pack Reform campaign finance laws (unclear: tobacco industry could retaliate) The Group’s List of Policies to Try

  14. Earmark MSA and excise taxes for tobacco control (increase tobacco control funding) “Health trumps trade” (change social/political norms; government and advocate support) Require health care providers to give smoking cessation treatment (may help people quit) Require tobacco industry to pay for all tobacco-related health Ad campaign: “It’s addiction, stupid!” More Policies to Try

  15. A Conceptual Map of the Tobacco Control System The Beginnings of a Systems View of Tobacco Prevalence and Control

  16. Any questions?

  17. Building Blocks of the Approach

  18. What Can One Say at This Point?

  19. A “Shard” of a Tobacco Model The Aging Chain of Smokers

  20. Simple arithmetic for the flows

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