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VARIATIONS OF POPULATION GROWTH IN DIFFERENT REGIONS

VARIATIONS OF POPULATION GROWTH IN DIFFERENT REGIONS. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL.

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VARIATIONS OF POPULATION GROWTH IN DIFFERENT REGIONS

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  1. VARIATIONS OF POPULATION GROWTH IN DIFFERENT REGIONS

  2. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL • DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: PROCESS OF CHANGE IN A SOCIETY’S POPULATION FROM A CONDITION OF HIGH CRUDE BIRTH & DEATH RATES & LOW RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE TO A CONDITION OF LOW CRUDE BIRTH & DEATH RATES, LOW RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE, & HIGHER TOTAL POPULATION • ECUMENE – PORTION OF THE EARTH’S SURFACE PERMANENTLY OCCUPIED BY HUMAN SETTLEMENT

  3. STAGE 1: LOW GROWTH- VERY HIGH BIRTH & DEATH RATES PRODUCE VIRTUALLY NO LONG-TERM NATURAL INCREASESTAGE 2: HIGH GROWTH-RAPIDLY DECLINING DEATH RATES & VERY HIGH BIRTH RATES PRODUCE VERY HIGH NATURAL INCREASECAPE VERDE ENTERED STAGE 2 ABOUT 1950 – WHY?

  4. STAGE 3: DECREASING GROWTH-BIRTH RATES RAPIDLY DECLINE, DEATH RATES CONTINUE TO DECLINE & NIR BEGIN TO MODERATESTAGE 4: LOW GROWTH-VERY LOW BIRTH & DEATH RATES PRODUCE VIRTUALLY NO LONG-TERM NATURAL INCREASE & POSSIBLY A DECLINE

  5. DECLINING BIRTH RATES2 STRATEGIES UTILIZED: 1) EDUCATION & HEALTH CARE 2) CONTRACEPTION

  6. T. MALTHUS 1766-1834 AN ESSAY ON THE PRINCIPLE OF POPULATION • POPULATION GROWS GEOMETRICALLY BUT FOOD ARITHMETICALLY SO WE’RE DOOMED • NEO-MALTHUSIANS DUE TO NIR 20TH C. • DIDN’T ANTICIPATE MORE ENTERING STAGE 2 & MORE RESOURCES THAN FOOD BECOMING DEPLETED

  7. MALTHUS’ THEORY, CRITICS & REALITY • RESOURCE DEPLETION: YES BUT… • WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION HAS OUTPACED NIR SINCE 1950 • INDIA’S WHEAT PRODUCTION WAY UP, RICE NOT SO MUCH • TECHNOLOGY, AVAILABLE LAND, HIGHER YLD SEEDS ETC. • PROBLEM IS DISTRIBUTION NOT PRODUCTION • POPULATION GROWING BUT A POSITIVE BECASUE….. • MORE PEOPLE STIMULATE ECONOMY, FOOD PRODUCTION, MORE CONSUMERS GENERATE GREATER DEMAND FOR GOODS LEADING TO MORE JOBS • MARXISTS: WORLD HAS ENOUGH RESOURCES BUT NEED TO DISTRIBUTE THEM EQUALLY

  8. POSSIBLE STAGE 5? JAPANGRAYING NATION: POPULATION OF 65+ GREATER THAN 14 & UNDER • 127 MILL TO 95 MILL 2050 & WITH DECLINE DRAMATIC SHIFT • LABOR? JAPAN’S ETHNOCENTRIC CULTURE DISCOURAGES IMMIGRATION • HEALTH CARE COSTS WILL SKYROCKET, SCHOOLS WILL CLOSE, UNEMPLOY. • SOLUTION: ENCOURAGE JAPANESE TO WORK LONGER, MORE WOMEN IN WORKFORCE, AT HOME HEALTH CARE BUT WOMEN WORKING AFFECTS BIRTHS • JAPAN NEEDS A CULTURE SHIFT AWAY FROM GET MARRIED, HAVE KIDS & STAY AT HOME OR GO TO SCHOOL, GET A CAREER & STAY SINGLE

  9. POPULATION FUTURES – CHINA & INDIA • FULL CYCLE STAGES 1-4: LITTLE TO NO NIR TO LITTLE OR NO NIR • DEMOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES UNDERLIE PROCESS: • TOTAL POP MUCH GREATER IN 4 • CBR & CDR HIGH IN 1 & LOW IN 4 • CHINA & INDIA MOST POPULOUS: MORE THAN 1/3 OF WORLD POPULATION LIVE IN CH. & IN. • INDIAN INDEPENDENCE 1947 & GROWTH COMMENCED & 1ST TO ATTEMPT NATIONAL FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAM: STERILIZATION • NOW FAMILY WELFARE • CHINA’S 1 CHILD POLICY 1980: PERMIT TO HAVE CHILDREN, $ PYMTS, BETTER HOUSING, MORE LAND IF RURAL BUT • LESSENED SOME DUE TO ECONOMIC GROWTH: COUNSELING ON BC OPTIONS, FAMILY PLANNING FEE IF YOU WANT A 2ND CHILD TO COVER ADMIN COSTS • AS OF YET, LARGE INCREASE IN BIRTH RATE HASN’T HAPPENED

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