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Analyzing the Manufacturing Job Crisis: Productivity, Demand, and Trade from 1998 to 2003

This report explores the manufacturing job crisis in the United States between 1998 and 2003, focusing on the interplay of productivity, demand, and trade deficits in manufactures. It provides a comprehensive accounting framework, delves into the contributions of job loss from durable and non-durable sectors, and examines productivity growth trends. The analysis includes insights on trade deficits, the value of the dollar, and offers policy options such as dollar policy negotiations, legacy cost relief, and healthcare considerations.

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Analyzing the Manufacturing Job Crisis: Productivity, Demand, and Trade from 1998 to 2003

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Manufacturing’s job crisis

  2. Productivity, demand, and trade

  3. Productivity

  4. Demand

  5. Trade deficit in manufactures

  6. An accounting framework

  7. 1998-2003

  8. 2000-2003

  9. 2001-2003

  10. A closer look: durable vs. non-durables

  11. Contributions to job-loss: 1998-2003

  12. Contributions to job-loss: 2000-2003

  13. Contributions to job-loss: 2001-2003

  14. Productivity growth: durables vs. non-durables

  15. Productivity: Durables – NAICS 3341 and 3344

  16. Manufactures trade deficit + Value of the dollar

  17. Real, broad $ index: Time to breathe easy?

  18. Broad, major vs. OTIP indices

  19. Top 6 Deficit trading partners

  20. Deficit-weighted exchange rate change

  21. Policy options • 1) Dollar policy: continue negotiations with countries that peg their currency for competitive advantage • 2) Legacy cost relief for retiree health and pension benefits • 3) Health care, as always

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