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A Behavioral Perspective on Decision Making

shaylee avatar
shaylee
27 diapositives · 408 Views · Sep 09, 2012

This document explores various behavioral perspectives on decision-making within families, the impact of reward magnitude on discount rates, and strategies like the Save More Tomorrow Plan (SMarT) to encourage future savings. It also highlights challenges in accessing financial services, especially for the poor, and the importance of simplifying complex processes to improve comprehension and participation. By examining factors like time delay and conflict in choices, this analysis provides insights into enhancing financial decision-making and well-being.

#public choice theory #resolution #limited partnership #judgment #settlement #vote #closure #operations research
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    1. A Behavioral Perspective on Decision Making Families and Work Institute Corporate Leadership Circle March 25, 2009

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    7. Magnitude Discount rates decline with the size of the reward (very high for small amounts) $10 now versus $15 in one year $1000 now versus $1500 in one year $15 immediately ~ $60 in a year (300%) $250 ~ $350 (40%) $3000 ~ $4000 (33%) Note: potential aggregation problems

    8. Time delay Discount rates decline sharply with length of time to be waited 1 apple today > 2 apples tomorrow 1 apple in 50 days < 2 apples in 51 days $1000 now > $1100 in 2 months $1000 in 10 months < $1100 in 12 months

    10. The Save More Tomorrow Plan (SMarT; Benartzi & Thaler) People pre-commit to saving more in the future. Saving increases are synchronized with salary increases. People remain in the plan unless they drop out.

    11. Results in First Implementation

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    13. Actual prob. of behavior: often does not increase with intention strength Manipulations designed to strengthen intentions to carry out a behavior : larger impact on self-predictions but not on behavior Manipulations designed to influence ease with which intentions are translated into behavior (e.g., access, reminders): larger impact on behavior than on self-predictions (increased welfare!)

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    16. Rational Choice explanation: High costs of accessing financial services: Banks are far, expensive; avoid serving the poor

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    18. Providing low-fee bank accounts to the poor (Bertrand, Mullainathan, & Shafir) Prior program proved of limited effectiveness (<50% take-up.) Follow-up surveys: 90% intended to, but forgot, misplaced the relevant forms, etc 2-hour long workshop; If workshop participant interested in FA: Referral letter to take to the bank, OR Sign up on site if bank representative present at the workshop

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    20. Conflict: Dominance: x) 65% chance to win $15 x) 65% chance to win $15 y) 30% chance to win $35 x) 65% chance to win $14

    21. Conflict and the status quo

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    25. State applications are up to 36 pages, written at the 9th to 12th grade reading level. Must be signed by the applicant, under penalty of perjury!! Incomprehensible; demeaning; scary; overwhelming; technically difficult; condescending... Not today!

    26. In fact: Not flailing around; Not unpredictable; Not errors of judgment or arithmetic! Instead: Systematic experiences inherent to our mental life