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Norway High Speed Rail

Norway High Speed Rail. Contract 5: Market Analysis. Michael Hayes Project Director. Phase 2: Market Analysis. What is the potential market for HSR? How many people would use HSR (and how much revenue) for different options?

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Norway High Speed Rail

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  1. Norway High Speed Rail Contract 5: Market Analysis Michael Hayes Project Director

  2. Phase 2: Market Analysis • What is the potential market for HSR? • How many people would use HSR (and how much revenue) for different options? • Where should stations be situated and what facilities should they have? • How much freight could use the line? Using experience from across Europe

  3. 1. Potential Market for High Speed Rail Analysis to understand potential market: • Existing air, road and rail markets • Improving access to tourist destinations? • Better access to Gardermoen Airport? Compare with international experience

  4. 1. Potential Market for High Speed Rail Oslo – Stavanger Air: 1.2m pass/yr Rail: 0.3m pass/yr Road: 1m trips/yr Oslo – Kristiansand Air: 0.5m pass/yr Rail: 0.4m pass/yr Road: 2.6m trips/yr

  5. 1. Potential Market for High Speed Rail Oslo – Bergen Air: 1.5m pass/yr Rail: 0.6m pass/yr Road: 1.3m trips/yr

  6. 1. Potential Market for High Speed Rail Oslo – Trondheim Air: 1.5m pass/yr Rail: 0.4m pass/yr Road: 1.4m trips/yr Oslo – Stockholm: Air dominant (0.7m pass/yr) Oslo – Gothenburg: Road dominant (waiting data)

  7. 1. Potential Market for High Speed Rail European experience: • HSR captures air markets well, road markets less so.

  8. 2. Estimating HSR usage • Assess cost of travelling by each mode • How do people value different modes?

  9. 2. Estimating HSR usage Many fundamental questions in forecasting: • How willing are passengers to pay to save travel time? • How important are frequency, reliability and station access? • What impact does group size have on choice of travel? • Would HSR inherently generate new demand for travel?

  10. 2. Estimating HSR usage Also need to understand attitudes to HSR: • Do business travellers value ability to work on trains rather than planes? • Would amount of tunnels affect leisure market? • Is reliability an important factor? • Do people inherently value travelling by HSR more than by plane?

  11. 2. Estimating HSR usage Market survey exercise being undertaken • Surveys to understand attitudes for different types of travellers • Economic analysis to produce forecasting models • Supplement with sensitivity tests

  12. 3. Station Location and Facilities • How many intermediate stations? • Where should they be? Population within 15 minutes Oslo Stavanger Kristiansand

  13. 3. Station Location and Facilities • Are the existing stations in the right place? • What kind of facilities do they require?

  14. 4. Freight • Is there demand for high speed freight?

  15. 4. Freight • Could any HSR route carry normal freight trains?

  16. Michael Hayes Head of Rail Planning Euston Tower, 286 Euston Road LONDON NW1 3AT United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 20 7121 2388 Mobile: +44 (0)7857 981 343 Email: michael.hayes@atkinsglobal.com www.atkinsglobal.com

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