Demography

1. Demography • birth, death, immigration, and emigration. • Populations grow due to birth and immigration, which occurs when individuals enter a population by moving from another population. • Populations decline due to deaths and emigration, which occurs when individuals leave a population to join another population. • Demography is the study of factors such as these that determine the size and structure of populations through time.

2. Demography • If a population consists primarily of young individuals with a high survival rate and reproductive rate, the population size should increase over time. • On the other hand, if a population comprises chiefly old individuals with low reproductive rates and low survival rates, then it is almost certain to decline over time. • To understand a population’s dynamics, biologists turn to the data contained in a life table.

3. Life Tables • A life table summarizes the probability that an individual will survive and reproduce in any given time interval over the course of its lifetime. • The lizard Lacerta viviparais a common resident of open, grassy habitats in western Europe. Most populations give birth to live young. • Biologists were able to construct a life table for this species

5. Survivorship • Survivorship is the proportion of offspring produced that survive, on average, to a particular age. • To recognize general patterns in survivorship and make comparisons among populations or species, biologists create a graph called a survivorship curve. • The survivorship curve is a plot of the logarithm of the number of survivors versus age. • There are three general types of survivorship curves.

6. Survivorship • In a type I curve, survivorship throughout life is high, and most individuals approach the maximum life span of the species (e.g. humans ) • In a type II curve, most individuals experience relatively constant survivorship over their lifetimes; songbirds have this curve. • Type III curves result from high death rates early in life, with high survivorship after maturity; many plants have type III curves.

7. Fecundity • Fecundity is the number of female offspring produced by each female in the population. • Age-specific fecundity is the average number of female offspring produced by a female in a given age class—a group of individuals of a specific age. • Data on survivorship and fecundity allow researchers to calculate the growth rate of a population.

8. The Role of Life History • In many species, key aspects of the life table vary dramatically among populations.

9. What Are Fitness Trade-Offs? • Fitnesstrade-offs occur because every individual has a restricted amount of time and energy at its disposal―its resources are limited. • If a female devotes a great deal of energy to producing a large number of offspring, it is not possible for her to devote that same energy to her immune system, growth, nutrient stores, or other traits that increase survival. • A female can maximize fecundity, maximize survival, or strike a balance between the two.

10. Life History Is Based on Resource Allocation • An organism’s life historydescribes how an organism allocates its resources to growth, reproduction, and activities or structures related to survival. • Traits such as survivorship, age-specific fecundity, age at first reproduction, and growth rate are all aspects of an organism’s life history. • Understanding variation in life history is all about understanding fitness trade-offs.

11. Patterns across Species • Life-history traits form a continuum. • In general, organisms with high fecundity tend to grow quickly, reach sexual maturity at a young age, and produce many small eggs or seeds. • In contrast, organisms with high survivorship tend to grow slowly, and invest their energy and time in traits that reduce damage from enemies and increase their own ability to compete for resources.

12. Predicting Population Growth • The most fundamental questions that biologists ask about populations involve growth or decline in numbers of individuals. • For conservationists, analyzing and predicting changes in population size is fundamental to managing threatened species. • A population’s overall growth rate is a function of birthrates, death rates, immigration rates, and emigration rates.

13. Quantifying the Growth Rate • A population’s growth rate is the change in the number of individuals in the population (N) per unit time (t). • If no immigration or emigration is occurring: growth rate = N r • The per-capita rate of increase(r) is the difference between the birthrate and death rate per individual. r = b − d

14. Quantifying the Growth Rate • If b>d, r>0 • If b<d, r<0. • Within populations, r varies through time. Its value can be positive, negative, or 0. • When birthrates per individual are as high as possible and death rates per individual are as low as possible, r reaches a maximum value called the intrinsic rate of increase, rmax. • When this occurs, the population's growth rate is expressed as: N/t = rmaxN

15. Quantifying the Growth Rate • Each species has a characteristic rmax that does not change. But at any specific time, the per-capita rate of increase of each population of that species is likely to be much lower than rmax. • A population’s r is also likely to be different from r values of other populations of the same species and to change over time.

16. Exponential Growth • Exponential population growth occurs when r does not change over time. It does not depend on the number of individuals in the population (it is density independent.) • In nature, exponential growth is observed in two circumstances: • A few individuals found a new population in a new habitat. • A population has been devastated by a storm or some other type of catastrophe and then begins to recover, starting with a few surviving individuals.

18. Exponential Growth • Exponential growth cannot continue indefinitely. (Environments have finite resources) • When population density—the number of individuals per unit area—gets very high, the population’s per-capita birthrate should decrease and the per-capita death rate increase, causing r to decline. • This type of growth is density dependent.

19. Logistic Growth • Carrying capacity, K, is the maximum number of individuals in a population that can be supported in a particular habitat over a sustained period of time. K can change depending on conditions. • The carrying capacity of a habitat depends on a large number of factors: food, space, water, soil quality, and resting or nesting sites. Carrying capacity can change from year to year, depending on conditions.

20. Predicting pop size: A Logistic Growth Equation • If a population of size N is below the carrying capacity K, the population should continue to grow. Specifically, a population’s growth rate should be proportional to (K – N)/K: N/t = rmaxN((K – N)/K) • This expression is called the logistic growth equation (density dependent).

21. Graphing Logistic Growth • In a hypothetical population, density-dependent growth has three distinct stages: • Initially, growth is exponential (r is constant). • Growth rate begins to decrease (N increases) when competition for density-dependent factors begins to occur. • Growth rate reaches 0 at the carrying capacity (N vs. t is flat).

22. What Limits Growth Rates and Population Sizes? • Population sizes change as a result of density-independent and density-dependent factors. • Density-independent factors are usually abiotic; they change birthrates and death rates irrespective of population size. • Density-dependent factors are usually biotic; they change in intensity as a function of population size.

23. A Closer Look at Density Dependence • An experimental study of a coral-reef fish called the bridled goby showed a strong density-dependent relationship in survivorship. • Likewise, a long-term study of song sparrows on Mandarte Island, British Columbia, showed a strong density-dependent relationship in fecundity. • Density-dependent changes in survivorship and fecundity cause logistic population growth.

24. Carrying Capacity Is Not Fixed • K varies among species and populations. • K varies because for any particular species, some habitats are better than other habitats due to differences in food availability, space, and other density-dependent factors. Stated another way, K varies in space. • It also varies with time, as conditions in some years are better than in others. • In addition, the same habitat may have a very different carrying capacity for different species.

25. Population Dynamics: changes in pops thru time

26. How Do Metapopulations Change through Time? • If individuals from a species occupy many small patches of habitat so that they form many independent populations, they represent metapopulations―a population of populations. • Because humans are reducing large, contiguous areas of forest and grasslands to isolated patches or reserves, more and more species are being forced into a metapopulation structure. • Glanville fritillaries—an endangered species of butterfly native to the Åland islands off the coast of Finland—exist naturally as metapopulations.

27. Metapopulations Should Be Dynamic • Ilkka Hanski and colleagues determined the number of Glanville fritillary breeding pairs in each patch within a metapopulation. • Over time, each population within the larger metapopulation is expected to go extinct due to any number of potential causes. • migration (rescue effect) • There is thus a balance between extinction and recolonization within a metapopulation. Subpopulations may blink on and off over time, but the overall population is maintained at a stable number of individuals.

28. Metapopulations Should Be Dynamic • Experimental studies supported the dynamic nature of metapopulations in Glanville fritillaries; the overall population size was relatively stable even though constituent populations came and went.

29. Why Do Some Populations Cycle? • Some populations exhibit population cycles—regular fluctuations in size. • Most hypotheses put forward to explain population cycles depend on some density-dependent factor. Predation, disease, or food shortages intensify dramatically at high population density and cause population numbers to crash. • A long-term study of the hare and lynx illustrates population cycles:

30. Is It Food or Predation? • To explain the hare-lynx cycle, biologists proposed two hypotheses based on density dependent factors: • Hares use up all their food when their populations reach high density and starve; in response, lynx also starve. • Lynx populations reach high density in response to increases in hare density. At high density, lynx eat so many hares that the prey population crashes. • So the question was, do hares control lynx population size, or do lynx control hare population size? • bottom-up control or top-down control?

31. A Field Experiment • To test the hypotheses that predation, food availability, or a combination of those two factors controls the hare-lynx cycle, researchers set up a series of study plots in similar boreal forests. • Three plots were used as controls, one plot excluded lynx but not hares, two plots provided additional food for hares, and one plot both excluded predators and provided extra food for hares.

36. How Does Age Structure Affect Population Growth? • A population’s age structure—the proportion of individuals that are at each possible age—has a dramatic influence on the population’s growth over time.

37. Age Structure in a Woodland Herb • The common primrose lives in sunny gaps in shady woodlands. • Its age structure varies over time. • Rapidly growing juveniles dominate populations in sunny new gaps. • As trees grow to shade these gaps, the growth of the population declines, leaving mostly adults in the population.

38. Age Structure in a Woodland Herb • The dynamics of primrose populations are expected to follow three trends: • Populations that are dominated by juveniles should experience rapid growth followed by a decline due to shading by trees. • The long-term trajectory of the overall primrose population in an area may depend primarily on the frequency and severity of windstorms that knock down trees and create sunlit gaps. • In a large tract of forest, the primrose population will have metapopulation structure.

39. Age Structure in Human Populations • The age structure of human populations in different countries, which varies dramatically, can be represented by age pyramids—graphs with horizontal bars representing the numbers of males and females of each age group. • The age structure of a population tends to be uniform in developed countries and bottom-heavy in developing countries. • Analyzing an age pyramid can give biologists important information about a population’s history, and also help them predict a population’s future.

41. Analyzing Change in Human Population Growth Rate • The rate of human population growth has increased over the past 250 years, leading to a very steeply rising curve over the past few decades. • It is almost impossible to overemphasize just how dramatically the human population has grown recently.

43. How Large Is the Current Human Population? • In 2009, the world population is estimated at over 6.8 billion, and about 77 million additional people are being added each year. • It is not possible to overstate the consequences to us and to the planet of these recent and current increases in human population. • In addition to being the primary cause of habitat loss and species extinction, overpopulation is linked to declines in living standards, political instability, and acute shortages of basic resources.

44. How Large Is the Current Human Population? • The one encouraging trend in the data is that the growth rate of the human population has begun to decline. • Since 1970, the growth rate of human populations has been dropping. Between 1990 and 1995, the worldwide growth rate averaged 1.46 percent per year; currently the annual rate is 1.2 percent.

45. Will Human Population Size Peak in Your Lifetime? • The UN has projected human population growth to the year 2050 based on current fertility rates, and 2.5 (high), 2.1 (medium), or 1.7 (low) children per woman. • When fertility at the replacement rate is sustained for a generation—each woman producing exactly enough offspring to replace herself and her offspring’s father—zero population growth (ZPG) results. • The future of the human population hinges on fertility rates—on how many children each woman living today decides to have.

47. Can Population Ecology Help Endangered Species? • When designing programs to save species threatened with extinction, conservationists draw heavily on concepts and techniques from population ecology.

48. Using Life-Table Data • Collecting and analyzing demographic data such as age-specific survivorship and fecundity are important for saving endangered species and for other applied problems. • Life-table data can be used to project the future of a population. • Projecting a population based on life-table data allows biologists to alter values for survivorship and fecundity at particular ages and assess the consequences. (also: for humans, life insurance premiums)