Telepresence for the Teleworkplace: Living-in versus visiting Cyberspace… Making Telepresence a Reality … or what DV is

1. Telepresence for the Teleworkplace:Living-in versus visiting Cyberspace…Making Telepresence a Reality … or what DV is really all about 30 April 1998 Gordon Bell (gbell@microsoft.com) Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Research http://www.research.microsoft.com/barc/gbell

2. Outline • Nature of the Teleworkplace • Platforms and technology push… why now? • The teleworking dimensions • Telepresentations: a killer app • But does anyone want telework? • Cyberspace… our quest • The end….. • The 16 questions posed in the DVC Brochure

3. Telework = work + telepresence … “being there while being here” • Goal: teleoffice/teleworkplace = workplace office • The teleworkplace is ideally just a “remote office” W/O • Communication, computer, and network support! • Team interactions for work! CSCW is a “rat hole”! • Interaction at coffee, meeting rooms, … in offices • Administrative support for phones, information (especially paper) management, keeping track of • Always on & always connected to intranet/intranet ...! • Telepresentations & communication -- the “killer apps” • Collaboration is desirable, hard, and may be possible. Needs B/W & low latency. It’s on its very slow way. • SOHOs & COMOHOs is a high growth market

4. Telecommuting versus time

5. Teleworking CW 9/1/97 • 15% 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk • 42% of US Co’s; 22% have policies (screening, worker expectations, liability, IP protection, etc. • Are telecommuters more productive? • 30% yes • 50% same • 4% no • 16% don’t know • Are telecommuters more accessible? • 13% yes • 40% same • 40% no • 7% don’t know

6. Telepresence for work: requirements • Telepresence = space and time shifting • Goal: teleoffice/teleworkplace = workplace office • Limited space, bandwidth, administrative and computer support infrastructure, AND interaction • Need: run all office and professional apps, support computing environment, and be always connected • New app opportunities: telepresentations (e.g. NetShow, Powerpoint conferencing); • Web is the greatest library ever created • Create “presence” for collaboration by apps sharing (e.g. NetMeeting, Placeware) • Administrative support including paper handling! • Short term bets: large disks (e.g 20GB), more displays, videophones, cameras, scanners, bandwidth limits

7. Telework & telepresence: a forcing function into several areas... • Home Network • Network connection is always on … and at high speed • Support (at reasonable cost) for all apps… -- the teleworker = system admin • Office work… e.g. paperlessness, message mgm’t “recording all we read, write, hear, and see”-- the teleworker = admin. assistant aka secretary • Telepresence… attending meetings and lectures, taking courses, etc. without travel • Collaboration on a work project without travel

8. Why telepresence now?

9. It’s the near-term platforms, stupid!(multimedia is finally happening) • Text & 2D graphics >> images, voice, & video • The WEB: being anywhere and doing anything • Disk sizes and cost c1998 • $50-100 / GB • 4 GB standard; CD-R; and 20-40 GB MO R/W • The videophone will emerge for distributed conferences • Document, picture, and video capture and compression • 10,000 to 250,000 pages / GB; 10,000 pictures / GB • 40-400 books / GB or $0.25-2.50 / book • Plethora of … CAMERAS EVERYWHERE! • More Screens. We need at least two! • Voice and video compression* • 250 hours / GB voice • Stamp size-VHS: 12-50 hours / GB; • Audio: Surround sound that is part of V-places

10. Memex

11. Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen Human data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetime read text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 G speech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T stills w/voice @100KB 200 K 2 M/G 60 G video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 T video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P

12. Storage and data-rate requirements for common office data-types Documents image compressed #/GB page or fax 100 K 4K 10K;250K business card 5 K 500 200K;2M snapshot 3 M 100 K 10,000 350 page book 25 M 1-2 M 40;750 Human data-types /hr /day /lifetime read text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M 60-300 G speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M 15 G speech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M 1.2 T Video comp. 50KbPOTS 22 M .25 G 25 T video comp. 200Kb VHS 90 M 1 G 100 T video comp. 4.3Mb DVD 1.8 G 20 G 1 P

13. SOHO AKA COMOHO Teleworking Environment Guardian Angel:intercom,records what we read, see, and hear… protects us fromourselves and others

14. Not shown: ECG; GPS; Libretto, .5mm PCS; Pilot Compass; altimeter Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife

15. One of GB’s Teleworkplaces

16. Tecra & Libretto Replacement… at 3#

17. Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing

19. SOHO (small office, home office)network computing environment POTS (legacy services) IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP gateway, file, print, compute LAN PC NC* PC *NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc. ... ... Phone Phone Phone

20. Telework & communications space

21. Mechanisms (how) Synchronous Asynchronous ICQ, Internet phone & phone conf. RealAudio & simple graphics Workspace for remote program control Whiteboard (groups)... Videophone Remote Rover (Robot Videophone) The Space of Telepresencefor work email Formal presentations sans video ... Voice & Videomail Video lectures & courses Profession person-computer 1:1 personal communication 2 site-site conferencing; n site conferencing 1:p broadcasts computer management distributed groups with >2, 10, <100, view (troll) hallways with “informal” interaction 1: 1 videophone calls for (problem solving, authoring) interviews classes formal meetings (lectures, conferences, stockholder meetings, town halls, etc..) Type of Work (What) Group Interaction (Who)

22. WHO 1:1 person-person communication n:m 2-site-site video conference 1:n-site broadcasting or Mbone narrowcasting distributed group. >2 - 5 - 10 - 100 ---- person-computer computer management (no persons) What view (troll) hallways, “seeking interaction” 1:1 interview, status report, etc. 1-6 videophone calls for (design, problem solving, authoring) hold staff meetings with 1 or more members distributed attend classes formal meetings (lectures, conferences, stockholder meetings, town halls, etc..) Telepresence: who and what

23. Telemeeting clone

24. Telework clones… being in more than one place at the same time

25. Animatron...

26. Synchronous Internet phone & phone conferencing RealAudio & Overhead graphics Shared applications Whiteboards CU SeeMe on POTS… IP Videophone Mbone Video conferencing Room Video conferencing Remote Rover (Robot Videophone) Asynchronous voice mail…STT email ... TTS Home pages replace bulletin boards, file transport, and document distribution Schedule & “Notes” Voice and Video “email” Telepresentations (meetings, presentations, & courses) Telepresence Mechanisms (for Work)

27. Voice* TTS (synthetic or speaker driven) 4 Kb-64 Kb codec of real voice Stereo of real voice Stereo with sound source identification Projection into arbitrary virtual world environment *variable speed Visual AKA Video* Text avatar (simple… photo) Avatar with voice sync Avatar of real person Video codec based projection “Postage stamp” … POTS “Mailing label” … ISDN or 2x POTS Compressed VHS (200 Kbps) MPEG 2 (1- 4 Mbps) Speaker tracking, 1-n cameras VR image of a large space 3d images “holodeck” Animatron e.g. Barney Mobile Animatron *Meeting in real or virtual world Voice and Visual Alternatives (in order of increasing B/W)

28. Telepresentations: The next or another killer app?

29. Tools for telepresentations and telecollaboration • Powerpoint: conference & record, Precept: mbone multicasting • NetShow: On demand viewing of video 28.8 - 100 Kb • CuSeeMe: audio, video, whiteboard • NetMeeting: audio, 2 way video, chat, whiteboard, program sharing • Placeware for large scale meetings, presentations, and collaborations

30. Telepresentations“Being There (e.g. meeting, lecture, confererene) Without Really Being There (or Then)” • Presenter or audience need not be physically present • Reach a wider audience • “I have a schedule conflict.” • Anybody with a web connection can participate • Reduce costs • No need to travel to attend or participate in a presentation

31. Telepresentation Features • Essential • High quality audio and Graphics aka slides • Important • Some essence of the presenter - even a few still images • Non-Essential • Video of the presenter • Two-way communication

32. Telepresentations will be a well-defined app by 2001. • ACM97 was the first telepresented conference with Mbone multicast & servers that host the conference cf. http://www.research.microsoft.com/acm97 • Bet: More people will view the conference from Cyberspace than that attended it. • Big question: will telepresentation technology AKA tele-learning affect learning and education?

33. But does anyone want telework?

34. Problems: socio vs technical • Isolation & loneliness • need for communication/stimulation • chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas • loss of group/teamwork skills • danger of becoming “terminal” • interruptions & focus • lack of support staff to help, answer ?s • supervision and ability to have 1:1 • unclear that many people want it… they simply need the contact with people

35. A People Model: Does anyone want telepresence? Spock formal(in writing) Self-control informal(verbal) Sally Field Analyticals.. being right, detailed analretentives Drivers…results oriented megalomaniacs Managing Interpersonal Relationships(MIR) 2D Model broadcast- push email Amiables…consensusbuilders spinelesswimps Expressives...want recognition, need contact psychotics --------------chat---------------- Intensity Souter Evangelism Swaggert

36. Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers! Body Continent Region/ Intranet Cars… phys. nets Home… buildings Campus World Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

37. By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use. “ Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper, loser gets fed) ”

38. Two, $1K Bets with Nicholas Negroponte on Internet Growth • That by December 31, 2000 there will be 1 billion users on the web. • (5:1 odds) That by December 31, 2001, there will be 1 billion users on the web.

39. Growth in users? World population@1.6% Internet growth extrapolated@98%

40. Good News • Bandwidth will come • Audio and video compression is improving to live within POTS limit • Videophones will be built-into all PCs within 5 years at 0 cost • Telepresentations are here for “live” and “on demand” useThis will change education! • Telecollaboration tools work for simple apps…

41. Telework: Summary • The web is the enabler. We still lack B/W. • Technology is coming, research lags in handling • Storage of all text, audio, and useful video • Videophones, cameras, netPCs, WebTV, etc. • More pixels we require to increase “presence” • Adequate audio… the “killer” component • A big part of telework is just office productivity • Coexistence with computer, paper, telephone, • Data-types require a multimedia database • Computer and network management is a real “time killer” • CSCW is a rathole. We don’t understand CW • The killer apps are simple: telepresentations and shared apps • Being connected all the time is essential

42. “Therapy from long distance debated”- SJ Mercury 5 April 1998http://www.sjmercury.com/breaking/headline1/056580.htm

43. The End

44. Bonus slides:Gordon’s very own answers to the 16 questions posed in the DVC Brochure

45. Will streaming video bring the Internet to its knees? • Depends on the data-rate. Is it 28.8 Kbps? Or > 4500 Kbps for DVD and HDTV-quality? • By definition, it won’t or can’t because • It won’t be deployed if the network can’t support it • Better question: What forms will streaming video take over the next five years for the corporate user? • What forms will streaming video take as a function of time for the home internet user?

46. What are the essential ingredients for success in remote collaboration? • The type of work… it has to be “coarse grain” I.e. little interaction among the collaborators per unit of collaboration and work output • Telepresentation-type collaboration does work • The application supporting it • Great audio • Were you able to collaborate in a single site?

47. How much interoperability is really out there? • Not much…among vendors. • Microsoft has a solution to this problem and we comply with the various ITU standards

48. Which technology will win the broadband access battle -- cable modems or DSL products? • I.e. the dumb or the blind? • Cable will lead in the short term because of the inherent ease of doing it, its low cost, and the possibility that users could simply buy their cable modems and attach them. Not a given because the transition to digital channels will confuse things • But in the long term, service most likely has to be Central Office based for reliability and scalability and for symmetry.

49. Why are desktop video conferencing sales growing faster in the consumer market than in business market? • It would be surprising if videoconferencing sales are growing faster. • Surely 2 way videophone is growing • Clearer need: the videophone • It is easy to do for videophone use • Lack of a great product that works • Lace of infrastructure on the net, including firewalls • Audio isn’t good enough… I.e. acceptable

50. How will Disney use the Internet to distribute multimedia content? • Slowly… look at their site with a young child • Games, cartoons, and stories • To engage the users into stories like DisneyLand or DisneyWorld