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Peak Oil Values & Policy for 21C Towards 2020 Climate Change Conference Sunshine Coast, Queensland 8-9th June 2007

Peak Oil Values & Policy for 21C Towards 2020 Climate Change Conference Sunshine Coast, Queensland 8-9th June 2007. Ian T. Dunlop Deputy Convenor. The Peak Oil Opportunity. Peaking of Oil Supply oil is not running out

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Peak Oil Values & Policy for 21C Towards 2020 Climate Change Conference Sunshine Coast, Queensland 8-9th June 2007

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  1. Peak OilValues & Policy for 21CTowards 2020Climate Change ConferenceSunshine Coast, Queensland8-9th June 2007 Ian T. Dunlop Deputy Convenor

  2. The Peak Oil Opportunity • Peaking of Oil Supply • oil is not running out • but soon it will not be physically possible to expand oil supply to meet increasing demand • Climate Change and Peak Oil are inextricably linked • and converging • Solutions to Peak Oil must reinforce, and not conflict with, solutions to Climate Change • Convergence will profoundly alter our way of life, our institutions & our prosperity • for the better, as our current lifestyle is not sustainable

  3. Global Drivers • Population Growth • Poverty & Inequality • Liberalisation • Globalisation • Technological Change • Sustainability

  4. World Population Where to ? BC AD Source: J.E.Cohen, Columbia University, New York, 2005

  5. Poverty & Inequality Enjoy 80% of World GDP World Population = 6.5 billion Source: World Bank Global Database 2004

  6. World Ecological Footprint Source: Global Footprint Network

  7. World Energy Consumption Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006

  8. Energy & Prosperity

  9. Energy Demand Growth“Official Forecast” 1971 - 2030

  10. Global Fossil Fuel Resources

  11. World Oil Production Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006

  12. Peak Oil matters Oil dominates its markets • 80-95% of all transport is fuelled by oil products • 50-75% of all oil is used for transportation • All petrochemicals are produced from oil • 99% of all lubrication is done with oil products • 95% of all goods in the shops get there using oil • 99% of our food involves oil or gas for fertilisers, agrochemicals, tilling, cultivation and transport • Oil is the most important source of primary energy on the planet accounting for 36.4% of all energy

  13. Crude Oil Importers

  14. Crude Oil Exporters

  15. The Oil Triangle of the Middle East Within the Oil Triangle you can find roughly 60 percent of the remaining oil reserves in the world. The 2001 Cheney report, US Energy Policy, says that in year 2020 around 54 to 67 percent of the world consumption of oil needs to come from the Oil Triangle. Qatar

  16. Typical Oil Province Production Profile

  17. The Growing Gap Source: Exxon Mobil 2002 - updated

  18. Oil Availability The “Official Future” in 2005 Availability of oil resources as a function of economic price Source: IEA (2005)

  19. “Official Future” Today “ The energy future which we are creating is unsustainable. If we continue as before, the energy supply to meet the needs of the world economy over the next 25 years is too vulnerable to failure arising from under-investment, environmental catastrophe or sudden supply interruption” Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2006

  20. Global Oil Depletion - ASPO Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil

  21. CRUDE OIL PRICES1861-2005 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006

  22. The Economist’s View “If the price of eggs is high enough, even the roosters will start to lay” Perhaps, but if economists were farmers, geologists or petroleum engineers it would be a strange world ! Dr. Brian Fisher Executive Director ABARE May 2006

  23. Why are oil supplies peaking? • We are not finding oil fast enough • It is getting harder • We are not developing fields fast enough • Too many fields are old and declining • We are short of people and equipment • Oilfield inflation is soaring • Our societies are totally oil dependent • Oil supply will peak soon.

  24. Deepwater Oil - Getting Harder Source: BP

  25. Deep Water Oil vs Mt. Everest 8,848 metre Sea Level 2,100 metre to seabed 8,588 metre to oil reservoir New US Gulf of Mexico oilfield Jack 2

  26. What will the Peak look like ? • It could be sharp and nasty • geopolitical supply disruption / constraint • major oilfield depletion acceleration • producing countries consume more oil internally • climate change impact - Hurricane Katrina • It could be an “undulating plateau” • demand destruction • developing world cannot afford high prices • climate change emissions constraints • extra supply accelerates • to balance depletion • We will probably only see it in the rear-vision mirror • we may already be there

  27. Solutions -- but hurry • Efficiency in use • Demand management • Biofuels • Heavy oils and tarsands • Clean coal to create syngas • Gas to liquids The solutions must not worsen climate change

  28. 2005 Gbbls/year Efficiency Demand Growth Global Oil Solutions Filling the gap Transport mode shifts Pricing / taxes City design/lifestyle Past Production of Oil Other petroleum fuels gas, tar-sands Other fuels Deprivation, war Forecast Production • no single “Magic Bullet” solution, but lots of “Magic Buckshot” ! • probably no replacement ever for cheap plentiful oil • urgent preparation and adjustment are vital

  29. Australian Crude Oil & Condensate Supply & Demand Source: APPEA

  30. Australia uses 45,000 megalitres of oil each year = a 360m cube Sydney Harbour Bridge is 134 m high 80% of Australia’s oil usage is in transport If Australia’s 20 M tpa wheat crop was all converted to ethanol: = 9% of Australian oil usage

  31. Oil Consumption Comparison Million barrels/ day 2005 BP Statistical Review, 2006 Australia uses 0.9 China 7.0 US 20.6 World 82.5 US = 1 cubic km oil / year 1 km l l Australia United States China

  32. Total Oil Consumption Production Net imports M bbl/day China 20 EU 15 + Norway Australia 10 l l 1 km United States 0 Aust Eu-15+ USA China Japan Aust Eu-15 USA China Japan Oil consumption bbl/day/1000 people Registered vehicles /1000 people 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Aust Eu-15 USA China Japan

  33. Who Gets The Available Oil ? • Market forces • the wealthy win • The “Washington Consensus” • send in the marines ! • A global “Oil Depletion Protocol” • sharing equitably • an oil equivalent of the Kyoto Protocol

  34. Oil Depletion Protocol • A Developed World View: • Every nation would reduce their oil consumption annually by at least the global depletion rate • No country would produce oil at above its present depletion rate • No country would import oil at above the global depletion • A Developing World View • Equal per capita oil allocation globally, by a date to be agreed • National oil descent budget managed by a Tradeable Energy Quota system • with personal per capita oil allocation • Climate change and peak oil TEQ systems work in parallel Sources: Dr. Colin Campbell, ASPO Australia

  35. Community Awareness & Commitment • Transition to a low-carbon economy will fundamentally alter lifestyle of entire community • Peak Oil is barely on our radar • but it may be the issue which has a greater impact than climate change in the short-term • Be aware and prepare! • Requires principled, long term leadership • Community involvement and pressure are essential drivers • A unique opportunity to set humanity on a new course built on sustainable principles

  36. Technology alone is not enough.Values must change Technology New Existing New Values Existing Source: Hardin Tibbs

  37. 21st Century Value Shift Population • Values in 20th C • Quantity • Economy • Growth • Consumption • Materialism • Competition • Selfism • Nationalism • Short-term • Chains • Values in 21st C • Quality • Environment • Sustainability • De-materialisation • Self-restraint • Cooperation • Mutualism • Globalism • Long-term • Loops Time Itdunlop@ozemail.com.au

  38. Adaptive Change “It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, rather it is those most responsive to change” Charles Darwin

  39. “Don’t blow it - good planets are hard to find!” Time Thank you itdunlop@ozemail.com.au www.aspo-australia.org.au

  40. Background Slides

  41. How old are the fields? • Of the 18 largest fields, 12 are in decline, 5 have some potential and 1 is undeveloped • The 120 largest fields give 50% of total • 70% of production from fields 30+ years old • Few large recent discoveries • We’re dependent on the oil equivalent of ‘Old men and young boys’

  42. Sustainability “ Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” Gro Harlem Brundtland, “Our Common Future”,1987 “In a sustainable society, the rates of: • use of renewable resources do not exceed their rates of regeneration • use of nonrenewable resources do not exceed the rate at which sustainable renewable substitutes are developed • pollution emissions do not exceed the assimilative capacity of the environment” Herman Daly

  43. Tradeable Energy Quotas An electronic system for rationing carbon-rated energy… for all energy users… at national level. Also can be used to maintain a fair distribution of a scarce commodity such as oil or water

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