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Trade disputes and M acroeconomics

Trade disputes and M acroeconomics. JONG-EUN LEE OECD, Economic Department ( SEJONG UNIVERSITY, Seoul, KOREA ). Questions I want to answer. Macroeconomic factors matter in initiation of Trade Disputes?  Protectionism vs. case-specific reason  High/Middle/Low income countries

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Trade disputes and M acroeconomics

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  1. Trade disputes and Macroeconomics JONG-EUN LEE OECD, Economic Department (SEJONG UNIVERSITY, Seoul, KOREA)

  2. Questions I want to answer Macroeconomic factors matter in initiation of Trade Disputes? Protectionism vs. case-specific reason High/Middle/Low income countries World vs. national variables

  3. Why is it interesting? Provide a useful policy perspectives (not dragged by cliché or bored with theories) Deeper understanding for trade disputes Coverage

  4. History • Great Depression/ Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act • 1970s oil crisis/creeping protectionism • 1980s Argentina • Asian Financial Crisis • Democrat and Republican • Financial crisis in 2008/ tariff, anti-dumping, subsidies and bailout packages • Time to re-embrace globalism

  5. WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism Fairness and Enforcement Two tiers Sub-Saharan countries

  6. High income Middle income Low income

  7. International Macroeconomic Theory • The Mundell Fleming Model • The Dornbusch-Fischer Model • Computable General Equilibrium • Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium - New Keynesian DSGE - Real Business Cycle

  8. Previous studies • Grossman and Helpman(1994): political equilibrium where elected gov’t and interest groups interact in trade policy-making • Gawande and Bandyopadhyay(2000) • Jallab(2007): Anti-dumping cases with industry specific variables. Probit • Mah and Kim(2006) • Jensen(2007)

  9. Probit

  10. Conclusion Macroeconomic environments matter. High/Middle/Low show different patterns Nation-wide macro variables more significant than world-wide macro variables.

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