Insights from an integrated systems perspective of household fuels and health in China

1. Insights from an integrated systems perspective of household fuels and health in China H. Keith Florig Carnegie Mellon University Presented at the Workshop on Mitigation of Air Pollution and Climate Change in China Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Oslo, Norway October 17-19, 2004

2. “Co-benefits” and public policy goals Why stop here?

3. Macro & micro intervention Macro intervention Other stuff Social welfare Macro driving forces Household, societal, & environmental impacts Household fuels Micro intervention

4. Influence diagram for rural household fuels

5. Income Effects on Energy Choices

8. Rural Energy Consumption by Income (World Bank 1996) (Adapted from Worldbank Energy Sector Management Assistance Program Report 183/96, "Energy for Rural Development in China: An Assessment Based on a Joint Chinese/ESMAP Study in Six Counties")

9. Commercial energy vs. income in rural China(Wang & Feng 2003) Average per capita rural net income is currently about 2000 RMB From Wang and Feng, Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 7:545-552, 2003.

10. Appliance priorities in rural households • Lighting • Electric fan • TV & radio • Washing machine • Refrigerator … Electric cooking/heating

11. At the household level, cooking & heating choices are based on multiple attributes • Fuel availability (e.g., central heating, piped gas unavailable in many areas). • Economics: capital requirements, fuel price, fuel efficiency, household income, subsidies • Functional ease: convenience, controllability, evenness in time and space (heating) • Compatibility with traditional cooking styles • Cleanliness of surfaces (soot settling) • Health impacts (air pollution, safety, disease)

12. Other Income Effects

13. As wealth/income increases: • Demand for energy services grows • Access to health care improves • Living space expands • Persons per household declines • Smoking prevalence declines, but heavy smokers smoke more • Nutrition improves • Education rises

15. Dynamics

17. Time constants • Atmospheric residence times of particulates & PICs (< month) vs. CO2 (centuries) • Rural infrastructure construction, e.g., gas pipelines, roads (10-30 yrs) • Rural non-farm employment doubling (~10 yrs) • Rural real income doubling (~10 yrs) • Rural housing construction/urbanization (~5%/yr) • Permanent migration to cities (2% of rural pop/yr) • Solid  gas/liquid fuels transition (10-20 yrs) • Education of next generation (20 yrs)

18. A coalition of interested sectors

19. Household solid fuels as a commons problem • Climate effects • Health impacts beyond household • Exacerbates rural-urban inequality • Drains health care resources • Less healthy labor market • Lessens effectiveness of education • Burdens social security system • Damages ecosystems

20. Political economy of indoor air pollution Common stakeholder interest in rural residential solid fuels Public health Agri- culture Climate change Other interested lobbies: -Education -Tobacco -Ecosystem protection Energy Rural industry

21. Rural investment options – which buys rural residents the most utility per RMB? • Biogas digesters for cooking gas • Education • Industrial capital & micro-loans • Convert grain fields to export crops • Washing machine & refrigerator • Health clinics • Transportation infrastructure

22. Summary • Best policy prescriptions to address household solid fuels problem depend on how broadly “co-benefits” are defined • Mobilizing interventions for household solid fuels may require a broader coalition of stakeholders