1. “A LPB demonstration project” Celeste Saulo CIMA and Dept. of Atmos. and Ocean Sciences University of Buenos Aires Argentina Christopher Cunningham Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies National Institute for Space Research Brasil

2. WHY LA PLATA BASIN? Area: 3.100.000 km2 Inhabitants: 201.656.965 Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland

3. GIFS-FDP PROPOSAL It is proposed to establish a GIFS Forecast Demonstration Project (GIFS-FDP) focusing on La Plata Basin. The main motivation is the variety of meteorological systems and scales that interact to produce the climatological summer (ONDJFM) rainfall patterns in the La Plata basin In other words it is suggested that the La Plata basin is a suitable “test bed” for the assessment of model performance and the development of  specific tools for high impact weather forecasting, among others Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland

4. GIFS-FDP OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective would be to develop and test TIGGE-based products that meet the needs and requirements of the operational weather forecast community, in order to evaluate the benefit of those products in an operational context Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland

5. GIFS-FDP BENEFITS Potential benefits derived from implementation of GIFS-FDP at LPB: Assessment of the TIGGE models performance in a key region of the planet Building of intellectual capacity (i.e., enhancing capacity building at several levels, including scientific, operational and decision making) Exchange of expertise among the nations involved Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland

6. GIFS-FDP CENTRAL IDEAS Focus on heavy rainfall prediction, since advantages of ensemble forecasting applied to severe weather have to be fully demonstrated Focus on producing forecast tools tailored to users needs Synchronize this FDP agenda with the agenda of the field experiment CHUVA Science: use this unique opportunity to calibrate/verify ensembles with more observations than usually available and possibly address questions like:  which is the impact of extra data on forecast quality? (this includes data assimilation community) How can we use model error statistics to understand which processes are strongly affecting forecast quality so that key problems can be isolated ad models improved? Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland

7. GIFS-FDP CENTRAL IDEAS Importance of looking closer into two different but related scales: WEATHER: Early detection of events of extreme precipitation in short-term forecast horizon (1-5 days) EXTENDED WEATHER (intraseasonal): Estimation of changing probabilities in the near future Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland

8. GIFS-FDP ACTIONS Capacity building: organize short-intensive courses, before the “forecast demonstration” phase, with specific focus on: statistical techniques for optimal use of ensemble forecasting - probabilistic forecasts ensemble verification/calibration Promote liaisons with decision making sector (energy, early warning, water management, …) Develop bias corrected TIGGE model outputs Statistically downscaling of TIGGE model outputs to main cities in LPB Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland