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The Multi-Scale Integrated Assessment of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism grammar:

The Multi-Scale Integrated Assessment of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism grammar: Theoretical Relevance and Practical Applications. Mario GIAMPIETRO ICREA Research Professor <giampietro@liphe4.org>. Content of the presentation : . Study the evolutionary trend of structural changes

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The Multi-Scale Integrated Assessment of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism grammar:

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  1. The Multi-Scale Integrated Assessment of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism grammar: TheoreticalRelevance and PracticalApplications Mario GIAMPIETRO ICREA Research Professor <giampietro@liphe4.org>

  2. Content of the presentation: • Studytheevolutionarytrend of structuralchanges • over a largesample of countries (82) 1980-2007 • showingtheexistence of a clear attractor 2. A comparison of EU14 1992-2005 showingthe existenceof clear benchmarksdescribingthe metaboliccharacteristics offunctional compartments of society 3. Conclusions

  3. Would you believe someone telling you that at the next World Cup the players of the various EU national teams, during the month of that competition, will eat ¼ of what they eat now, and will generate a ¼ of the excrements they generate now?

  4. WHOLE level n Total mass = 70 kg 1 kg of brain = 10 kg of body 1 kg of heart = 21 kg of body liver Metabolic Rate = 1.16 W/kg brain !!!!!!!! Endosomatic Flow = 81 W heart muscles kidney kg W/kg W Liver 1.8 9.7 17.4 Brain 1.4 11.6 16.2 Heart 0.3 21.3 6.4 Kidneys 0.3 21.3 6.4 Muscles 28.0 0.6 16.8 Fat 15.0 0.2 3.0 Others 23.2 0.6 14.0 PARTS level n-1 We don’t believe it because we have a multi-level knowledge of human metabolism!

  5. liver brain Metabolic rate: W/kg Weight: kg Total Energy flow 81 W Total mass 70 kg Metabolic rate 1.2 W/kg Others kidneys Weight 70 kg Whole fat heart heart 0.4% kidneys 0.4% muscles Parts Human Body Metabolic rate 1.2 W/kg Definition of lower level metabolic elements useful for generating a mosaic effect brain 2.0% ORGANS of an ADULT MAN (70 kg mass) kg W/kg W Liver 1.8 9.7 17.4 Brain 1.4 11.6 16.2 Heart 0.3 21.3 6.4 Kidneys 0.3 21.3 6.4 Muscles 28.0 0.6 16.8 Fat tissue 15.0 0.2 3.0 Others 23.2 0.6 14.0 Total Body 70.0 1.2 81.0 liver 2.5% muscles 40.0% Fat 21.4% others 33.1%

  6. Total Energy Throughput 1,120 PJ (year) EMRi: MJ/hour HAi: hours/year THA EMRSA TET Total Human Activity 60.8 Gh (year) Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h Household Sector (HH) Total Human Activity 60.8 Gh (hours per year) SG Whole BM AG EM EM sector 0.1% Parts out of scale! CATALONIA2005 Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h BM sectors 3.2% Functional Compartments of CATALONIA HAi EMRi ETi Gh(year) MJ/h PJ(year) EM sector 0.06 2,000 120 BM sector 1.95 331 547 SG sector 3.6 75 270 AG sector 0.15 175 27 HH sector 55.1 2.8 155 Society 60.8 18.4 1,120 AG sector 0.2% SG sector 6% HH sector 91%

  7. Studytheevolutionarytrend of structuralchanges • over a largesample of countries (82) 1980-2007 • showingtheexistence of a clear attractor

  8. IntroducingBio-EconomicPressure as a biophysicalindicator of economicdevelopment

  9. STAGE 1 STAGE 1 Infant Mortality Rate Infant Mortality Rate Infant Mortality Rate STAGE 2 STAGE 2 BEP BEP InfantMortalityRate vs BEP 2007 1980 STAGE 2 STAGE 2 Life Expectancy at Birth Life Expectancy at Birth % of work force in industry STAGE 1 STAGE 1 BEP BEP Life Expectancy at Birth vs BEP

  10. Studyingstructuralchanges of socio-economicsystems duetoeconomicdevelopment/technicalprogress

  11. Changes in economic structure for selected countries Source of figure: MA 2005.

  12. The position of 82 countriesover 27 years – 2214 points!

  13. The position of 82 countriesover 27 years – 2214 points!

  14. 2. A comparison of EU14 1992-2005 showingthe existenceof clear benchmarksdescribingthe metaboliccharacteristics of functional compartments of society

  15. How useful is the indicator TET/GDP?  the energy intensity of “an economy”

  16. Finland = 29.73 MJ/hr El Salvador = 2.92 MJ/hr TET GDP TET THA GDP THA MJ No significance ! No external referent ! = $ El Salvador = 0.23 $/hr Finland = 2.35 $/hr (2,020 $/year p.c) (20,600 $/year p.c) MJ US$ = 12.6 !!! Year 1997 Finland = 12.6 MJ/$ El Salvador = 12.6 MJ/$

  17. TET THA GDP THA MJ/hour €/hour

  18. At the level n – the whole society TET THA GDP THA MJ/hour €/hour

  19. Total Energy Throughput 1,120 PJ (year) EMRi: MJ/hour HAi: hours/year THA EMRSA TET Total Human Activity 60.8 Gh (year) Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h Household Sector (HH) Total Human Activity 60.8 Gh (hours per year) SG Whole BM AG EM EM sector 0.1% Parts out of scale! CATALONIA2005 Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h BM sectors 3.2% Functional Compartments of CATALONIA HAi EMRi ETi Gh(year) MJ/h PJ(year) EM sector 0.06 2,000 120 BM sector 1.95 331 547 SG sector 3.6 75 270 AG sector 0.15 175 27 HH sector 55.1 2.8 155 Society 60.8 18.4 1,120 AG sector 0.2% SG sector 6% HH sector 91%

  20. GDP THA GDP HAPW At the level n-1 – production vs consumption (Paid Work sector versus Household sector) EMRPW PW sector (production) level n-1 MJ/hour EMRSA Whole Society level n EMRHH €/hour HH sector (consumption) level n-1

  21. ETi HAi GDPi HAi The metabolic pattern of Germany across hierarchical levels Level n-2 EMRi Level n-1 Level n-2 Level n-2 Level n MJ/hour THA HH Level n-1 €/hour GDP/hour

  22. MJ/hour 17 MJ/hour EMRAS Level n €/hour GDP/THA EXTERNAL REFERENT 3 €/hour MJ/hour 150 MJ/hour EMRPW 2 MJ/hour EMRHH Level n-1 €/hour ELPPW EXTERNAL REFERENT 300 MJ/hour MJ/hour 27 €/hour EMRPS 80 MJ/hour EMRSG 60 MJ/hour EMRAG Level n-2 €/hour ELPAG ELPPS* ELPSG EXTERNAL REFERENT 14 €/hour 33 €/hour 28 €/hour

  23. Level n-2 Level n-1 Level n-2 Level n-2 Level n The metabolic pattern of Spain across levels

  24. Level n-2 Level n-1 Level n-2 Level n-2 Level n The metabolic pattern of UK across levels

  25. Belgium Finland Sweden Netherlands France Germany Austria UK Italy Greece Portugal Spain

  26. Belgium Finland Sweden Netherlands France Germany Austria UK Italy Greece Portugal Spain

  27. Exploring the metabolic pattern at level n-2 Finland Sweeden Energy consumption MJ/hour Productive sector Ireland Household Portugal Service sector GDP/hour

  28. The metabolic pattern of EU countries across levels GERMANY UK 1992-2005 1992-2005 part part whole whole SPAIN IRELAND 1992-2005 1992-2005 ! part part whole whole Level n-2 Level n-1 Level n-1 Level n-2 Level n-2 Level n Level n Level n-1 Level n-1 Level n Level n

  29. 3. Conclusions

  30. The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization 1. Pre Industrial Phase [c. 3 000 000 BC to 1765] A - Tool making (c. 3 000 000 BC); B - Fire used (c. 1 000 000 BC); C - Neolithic agricultural revolution (c. 8 000 BC); D - Watts steam engine of 1765 starting the Industrial Phase (1930-2025) 2. Industrial Phase [1930 to 2025, estimated] E - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value; F - Peak energy-use; G - Present energy-use; H - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value 3. Post Industrial Phase [c. 2100 and beyond] J, K, and L = Recurring future attempts at industrialization fail.

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