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Unraveling The Great Depression Ahead: Insights by Harry S. Dent Jr.

Dive into the economic forecasts and insights of Harry S. Dent Jr. as we explore potential risks of a looming economic downturn. This comprehensive presentation covers historical trends, market cycles, and crucial indicators such as the Dow Industrials and Federal debt. Gain perspective on the impact of synchronized global booms and busts, commodity price cycles, and household net worth declines. Discover what the data indicates for the future economy and how it may echo past depressions.

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Unraveling The Great Depression Ahead: Insights by Harry S. Dent Jr.

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Presentation Transcript

  1. The Great Depression Ahead presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr.

  2. 35,000 50,000 5 3 4 5,000 1 2 2005 1982 2000 1995 2009 1990 1985 Dow Channel 1982-2009

  3. Tech Bubble Past and PresentGeneral Motors vs. Intel - 80 year lag

  4. Capitalized Economic Profits Source: Steve Moore and Art Laffer

  5. Synchronized Global Boom% Gain from 2002 Bear Market Lows

  6. Synchronized Global Bust% Loss from 2007 Highs

  7. Weekly Leading Index

  8. Weekly Leading Index Economic Cycle Research Institute

  9. ECRI Economic Indicators Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute

  10. Dow IndustrialsScenario 1 9,900

  11. Dow IndustrialsScenario 2 11,800 S S H

  12. 10-Yr Treasury Bond Yield1989-2009

  13. T Bond Sentiment

  14. Money Supply Expansion Source: Hays Advisory

  15. Inflation Indicator

  16. 29-30 Year Commodity Price CycleCRB Index (PPI before 1947) 2039-40 2009-10 1980 1920 1951

  17. Household Net Worth Decline Source: Federal Reserve

  18. The Velocity of MoneyGDP to Adjusted Monetary Base Source: St. Louis Fed, US BEA

  19. Velocity of Money Source: Van Hoisington and Hunt 2009

  20. Japan Government Debt as a % of GDP Source: OECD

  21. Federal Debt as a % of GDP Source: Conde Nast Portfolio

  22. US Debt SnapshotTrillions of $US

  23. US Private Sector Debt as a % of GDP Source: The Economist, “Out of Keynes’s Shadow,” 2/12/2009

  24. Federal Debt as a % of GDP Source: The White House

  25. US Private Sector Debt as a % of GDP Source: The Economist

  26. Total Real Estate DebtIn $Millions Source: Federal Reserve

  27. Total Corporate Debt Source: Bloomberg

  28. Total Consumer Credit Owned and SecuritizedIn $ Thousands Source: Federal Reserve

  29. Unfunded Liabilities Source: The Economist

  30. Average Home PricesJanuary 1994-February 2009 -45% -55% -65% Source: Case-Shiller US 10-City Index

  31. Commercial Real Estate PricesMoodys/REAL CPPI Index - National All Property Source: Bloomberg

  32. 230-Year Bull Market Since Mid 1780sA 300-Year Boom/Bust Cycle III V V (V) (B) 55 4 (A) (C) 2010s IV Depression 2070s Depression I 1930s Depression 1840s Depression II 1720s Depression 1780s Depression 2060 2090 2120 2030 Source: Robert Prechter, Conquer the Crash,pg. 33, with projections forward by Harry Dent.

  33. Brazil $5,800 GDP Per Capita % Urban

  34. Urbanization Rates

  35. United Kingdom GDP Per Capita % Urban

  36. Western Europe GDP Per Capita % Urban

  37. Japan GDP Per Capita % Urban

  38. China GDP Per Capita % Urban

  39. United States $25,100 GDP Per Capita % Urban

  40. South Korea GDP Per Capita $11,000 % Urban

  41. Japan $29,000 GDP Per Capita % Urban

  42. Israel $13,000 GDP Per Capita % Urban

  43. $23,000 Thailand GDP Per Capita % Urban

  44. Egypt $7,200 GDP Per Capita % Urban

  45. $5,800 Vietnam GDP Per Capita % Urban

  46. Australia GDP Per Capita $16,000 % Urban

  47. India Linear $6,400 GDP Per Capita % Urban

  48. $13,500 India post 1980 GDP Per Capita % Urban

  49. Chile GDP Per Capita $6,900 % Urban

  50. Brazil $5,800 GDP Per Capita % Urban

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