EPRI and the Comprehensive Modeling System

1. EPRI and the Comprehensive Modeling System D. Alan Hansen Environment Department

2. It’s 1989 and EPRI is: • Conducting its part of EMFS in Eastern United States • Planning its part of SJVAQS/AUSPEX in CA • Planning its part of LMOS in Upper Midwest • Planning its part of SERON in Southeast • Completed or planning visibility studies (SCENES, WHITEX, Dallas winter haze, Denver Brown Cloud) • Developing or planning advanced plume models • Developing or enhancing ADOM, RADM, LES and rainband models • Supporting numerous studies of aqueous chemistry • The first four all involved elaborate model development and evaluation activities. • All this was being done through several unrelated projects.

3. Question: “How do we tie all this together into an integrated research enterprise?”

4. Answer • Form a consortium • public and private research organizations • Develop and support a Comprehensive Modeling System • provide integrative framework for the science and modeling technology emerging from these studies • would be rigorously evaluated using the field study data • characterize modeling uncertainty • identify further research needs to improve model reliability and capability.

5. CMS Attributes • suitable and acceptable for regulatory applications • accessible to all participating organizations • able to simulate key atmospheric processes influencing the issues under study so that optimal solutions to multiple, interacting problems can, in principle, be found • modular to facilitate ready understanding of model structure and upgrading of process representations and other programmed components • easily readable code and self-documenting • menu driven so that non-experts can use them

6. CMA Attributes, continued • able to access on-line data sets necessary for model input and evaluation • able to display output data in graphical, geographical, and other symbolic forms to facilitate interpretation and communication of results • exercisable in distributed, heterogeneous computing environments, wherein any reasonable number of advanced computers can work on the problem simultaneously, efficiently and speedily Source: Hansen, D.A., Dennis, R.L., Ebel, A., Hanna, S., Kaye, J., and Thuillier, R., Feb-94. “CAMRAQ: the Quest for Modern Solutions to Regional Air Quality Problems”. Environ. Sci. Technol.28:70A-77A

7. Implementation Steps • Visit modeling groups and supercomputer centers to better understand problems, needs and capabilities. • Write a concept paper explaining the motivation, approach, attributes and expected benefits of a collaborative CMS (initially a “Complete Modeling System”, later a “Comprehensive Modeling System).[OH1] • Gain internal support by creating a project, the Tropospheric Model Development and Evaluation project and getting it approved by EPRI advisors. • Not unanimous advisory approval • Raised questions: Why should EPRI take on something that really is government responsibility? How can I personally use this? • Travel the continent drumming up support, including meeting with Mssrs. Rosenberg and Pruess of OAR.

8. Implementation Steps, continued • Hold two workshops • Organizations developing and evaluating models and their contractors to discuss research needs and collaborative approaches • Modelers and computer scientists to familiarize each other with needs and capabilities • Sign Memorandum of Understanding forming CAMRAQ • Secure consortium funding, a long, hard process. • Hire a coordinator and hold quarterly planning meetings. • Select design contractor. • Draft a detailed blueprint for a CMS and its supporting infrastructure • Develop a prototype CMS. • Develop version 1 CMS.

9. Making a Long Story Short • Final step never implemented: Erosion of internal support due to • insufficient collaborative funding, • lack of buy-in by public and private agencies (culture of “doing their own thing”), • EPRI advisor interest waning, and • anticipated availability of Models-3.

10. CMAS Organization and Flow Diagram

11. Possible new directions or emphases for CMAS/EPA • More interagency collaboration: • WRF and AQ forecasting steps in right direction. • Need to demonstrate value of Models-3 to other agencies and gain their financial support for CMAS • Continue push to make Models-3 a truly multi-media modeling system • Regrid CMAQ with geocentric coordinate system with global domain and inclusion of stratosphere. • Incorporate adaptive gridding into CMAQ and met driver. Adjust physics to be compatible with adaptive gridding. • Include analyzed satellite data for 4DDA nudging of met driver. • Develop capability for chemical 4DDA in CMAQ.

12. Possible new directions or emphases for CMAS/EPA, continued • Implementation on Terra-grid (?) for • developing annual NOx/SOx/VOC response surfaces for selected grid cells across North America for ozone and PM. • implementing detailed process analyses for more thorough diagnostic evaluation. • exploring differences in ozone production efficiency using CMAQ-APT with many point sources and many puffs to resolve plume structure.