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John Rolfe and Galina Ivanova

Application of choice and choice behaviour to the community choices among option for the development of the Moranbah township. John Rolfe and Galina Ivanova. Outline of this presentation. Case study: Mining town Methods of assessing community preferences Survey outline Results

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John Rolfe and Galina Ivanova

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  1. Application of choice and choice behaviour to the community choices among option for the development of the Moranbah township John Rolfe andGalina Ivanova

  2. Outline of this presentation • Case study: Mining town • Methods of assessing community preferences • Survey outline • Results • Pooling CM and CB data • Discussion

  3. Background: Issues for Mining Town • Mining has been through cyclical patterns of decline and boom • Increased use of workcamps and ‘fly-in/fly-out’ • Town development is limited by high housing costs and low levels of local spending • Other key issues are provision of services (water) and future proximity of mining • Limited knowledge what are the priorities in the community regarding town development

  4. Bowen Basin Area map

  5. Moranbah • Coal mining town in northern Bowen Basin • Population of approx. 7,000 • Up to 4,000 non-permanent workforce also ‘cycling’ through the town • Substantial pressure from local council to locate more workforce in the town • Council refuses to allow more workcamps to be built • Issues about future development of reserves close to township

  6. Case study: Moranbah • Funded by the State Government • Objectives of the Study • Assess views of residents regarding development options • Use 2 techniques: Choice Modelling (CM) and Contingent Behaviour (CB) • focuses attention on the key issues or attributes of importance, • provides some quantitative feedback about the relative importance of those issues and attributes (tradeoffs). • CB vs CM • CB does not use $ • CB provides insights on how behaviour might change • CB provides more flexibility with choices

  7. Survey • A literature review and extended stakeholder analysis were used to design a CM / CB survey • Choice Modelling survey • 3 choice sets /respondent • 3 profiles / choice set describing the alternatives on offer • One of the profiles described a status quo option • The other profiles varied • Contingent Behaviour survey • Reference point – intention to stay in Moranbah (years) • 3 profiles describing the alternatives on offer • Same profiles as from the CM experiment • Respondent identified the length of residence for each scenario

  8. 2 Figure 1. Example choice set used in survey

  9. Performance of the survey • November 2006 - Combined phone and mail-out. • Both CM and CB contained in mail-out • Split sample used to test order effect • Random sample of households in Moranbah community • Each respondent completed three choice sets • The response rate was 41% (131). • CM data analysed with logistic regression models • CB data analysed with multiple regression models

  10. Results of the Choice Modelling Experiment *** = significant at the 1% level, ** = significant at the 5% level, * = significant at the 10% level.

  11. Results of the Choice Modelling Experiment

  12. Example of Choice Behaviour survey Question 2. If the scenario below summarised the key changes in Moranbah in the next five years, would it change how long you think you would live in Moranbah? Please circle how many years from now you think you will live in Moranbah if this is how it develops (Remember your answer in Question 1) less than one year 1 1 - 2 years 2 2 - 3 years 3 3 - 4 years 4 4 - 5 years 5 6 - 10 years 6 10 - 15 years 7 over 15 years 8 unsure 9

  13. Planned stay in Moranbah

  14. Conducting the CB analysis • Calculated a dependent variable from the responses • Change in intention to stay • Difference between ‘Planned years of stay’ and ‘Years of stay’ for each profile • Variable indicates the level of behaviour response to each profile • Used as dependent variable in regression

  15. Choice Modelling vs. Contingent Behavior • Results are similar but not identical • Priority of the variables is similar • Relative weighting of variables is more extreme with CB data • Results suggest that responses may vary to some extent between CM and CB formats • Potential reasons • Different formats (closed vs open-ended) • Categorical responses in CB • Brevity of the response format • ?

  16. Testing for order effects • Tested CM models to identify if coming before or after CB sets affected values • No significant effect on CM models

  17. Pooling the data • Exploratory test to combine data sets • Converted CB data to binary format • Assumed that respondents implicitly considered a status quo option relative to each CB choice on offer • Set the status quo option and the choice alternative • Stacked CB data with CM dataset

  18. Pooled data exercise

  19. Discussion • Choice modelling: • Promising tool for prioritising development options • different benefits can be compared to costs of implementation • Contingent Behaviour: • Largely supportive of the CM results • Different format to engage people in choice exercises • Pooled data set • Difficult to add value from pooling exercise

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