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Solar Variability Impact on Atmosphere: Historical Trends and Model Studies

Explore the response of the upper atmosphere to solar forcing, including ozone and temperature trends from 1950 to 2003, with a focus on land, atmosphere, ocean, sea ice interactions. Investigate the role of carbon/nitrogen cycles, vegetation ecosystem dynamics, and gas-chemical processes. Analyze the impact of prognostic aerosols and upper atmospheric solar cycle studies. Calibration against observed SAGE data and comparisons of calculated and measured data provided by experts Judith Lean and Tom Woods.

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Solar Variability Impact on Atmosphere: Historical Trends and Model Studies

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  1. The Stratosphere:Point / Counterpoint

  2. Solar Forcing Coupler Land Atmosphere Ocean Sea Ice C/N Cycle Dyn. Veg. Ecosystem & BGC Gas chem. Prognostic Aerosols Upper Atm.

  3. Solar Cycle Studies: Model Input Spectral composite courtesy of: Judith Lean (NRL) and Tom Woods (CU/LASP)

  4. Response of the upper atmosphere to solar variability Marsh and Matthes

  5. Historical Forcings, including CFCs and volcanic aerosols Coupler Land Atmosphere Ocean Sea Ice C/N Cycle Dyn. Veg. Ecosystem & BGC Gas chem. Prognostic Aerosols Upper Atm.

  6. Calculated and Observed Ozone Trends SAGE-I 1979-1981 and SAGE-II 1984-2000 Rolando Garcia • Red inset on left covers approximately same region as observations on right • Agreement is quite good, including region of apparent “self-healing” in lower tropical stratosphere

  7. Calculated and Observed Temperature Trends SSU + MSU 1979-1998 Rolando Garcia • Red inset on left covers approximately same region as observations on right • Note comparable modeled vs. observed trend in upper stratosphere, although model trend is somewhat smaller

  8. 4 K 100 km -2 K 3 K 80 km -2 K 3 K 50 km -3 K 0.8 K 25 km -0.8 K Calculated Temperature Trends, 1950-2003 Global-means, deseasonalized Caution: 11-year solar signal not removed in trend calculations; this is large above 50 km, as shown on right

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