Project Team Paul Worrlein Matt Steffan Josh English Azadeh Yazdani Brent Sullivan
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Project Team Paul Worrlein Matt Steffan Josh English Azadeh Yazdani Brent Sullivan. Introduction. The Portland Streetcar runs on a 7 mile loop route connecting Northwest Portland, the Pearl District, Downtown, Portland State University and South Waterfront. Image courtesy of NextBus.
Project Team Paul Worrlein Matt Steffan Josh English Azadeh Yazdani Brent Sullivan
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Presentation Transcript
Project Team Paul Worrlein Matt Steffan Josh English Azadeh Yazdani Brent Sullivan
Introduction • The Portland Streetcar runs on a 7 mile loop route connecting Northwest Portland, the Pearl District, Downtown, Portland State University and South Waterfront.
NextBus • How accurate are the predictions? • NextBus claims the margin of error is less than one minute within five minutes of arrival • Within ten minutes of arrival, the margin of error is less than two minutes • These values were used as a basis for verification of arrival times
Portland Streetcar Inc. • Streetcar headways are listed for three time blocks throughout day • Weekdays 9 am to 8pm 13 minute headway • All other hours 14-20 minute headway • These values were used as a basis of comparison for headways
The issue • Passenger and Portland Streetcar Citizens Advisory Committee have expressed concern about the accuracy of arrival predictions displayed at streetcar stops
Project goals • Collect sufficient data in order to provide a thorough analysis • Produce recommendation for Portland Streetcar Inc. regarding use of timing system for streetcar arrivals
Methodology • Collect data at various stops along streetcar route North of Max line • Analyze/reduce data to confirm or refute accuracy claims of NextBus system
Data Collection • Ideal conditions result in low deviation from expected arrival • Poor conditions result in large deviation from expected arrival
Data Reduction • Compared predicted arrival times with actual arrival times • Found average discrepancies between actual and predicted arrival times • Looked at average values of headway between cars and distribution of headways throughout day
Observations • Weather • Unannounced street car arrivals • Traffic • Loading and unloading conditions • Problems with car door/ADA ramp extension • Route blockages
Conclusion • Prediction of arrival times are within the margin of error claimed by NextBus • Observed headways confirmed those posted by Portland Streetcar Inc. • Problems with headway and arrival predictions were usually attributed to isolated uncontrollable events such as weather or emergency vehicles blocking streets.
Recommendations • Portland Streetcar Inc. could petition NextBus to look into refining the prediction algorithm for delays from unpredictable events such as accidents and emergencies • System map showing current stop location and location of next streetcar, similar to NextBus website
Proposed interactive streetcar display Image courtesy of NextBus