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Hybrid Threats and Resilience through Civil Preparedness : An Academic View

Hybrid Threats and Resilience through Civil Preparedness : An Academic View. Ramon Loik Research Fellow International Centre for Defence and Security ICDS Security and Resilience Programme. (In-)Security and ‘Hybrid Threats ’.

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Hybrid Threats and Resilience through Civil Preparedness : An Academic View

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  1. Hybrid Threats and Resilience through Civil Preparedness:An Academic View • Ramon Loik • Research Fellow • International Centre for Defence and Security ICDS • Security and Resilience Programme

  2. (In-)Security and ‘Hybrid Threats’ • Security can be understood ascombination of external threats and internal vulnerabilities (B. Buzan). • Hybrid threats target vulnerabilities ofsociety both externally and internally (domestically): • Identification of vulnerabilities (Target Selection) • Targeting of vulnerabilities (Active Influencing) • Dependency–Building • ´Weaponizing´ of dependencies • Power Projection follows ...

  3. STATE (X) Proactive Interests (Intention) Resources Timing Active Influencing: State-sponsored proxies Intrest-driven proxies TARGET STATE / SOCIETY (Y) Reactive Fragmentation Polarization Cleavage Escalation Crises

  4. Complementary Perspectives:Chain of Resilience • Political, Economic and Diplomatic– • Military / Defense– (related concepts such as asymmetric and unconventional warfare) • Intelligence & Counter-Intelligence– • Communications (incl. Cyber) Security– • Civil Preparedness & Crises Management Perspective

  5. Conceptualizing Resilience • Resilience should ensure sufficient level of civil preparedness – households, communities, industries, infrastructuresand state(s) – to resist andrecoverfrom crises. • Resilience is multi-level and shouldcomprehensively binding together all societal resources available to withstand and recover from large-scale shocks. • Risks ~ ∫(External + Internal Threats Rating) / Consequences Rating x Vulnerability Rating

  6. Labels of Comprehensive Resilience-Building Source: Structure adapted form Møller (2012: 7). Content developed by Loik

  7. Example: Estonian Concept for Civil Protection

  8. Estonian National Crisis Management System CivilEmergencies (EmergencyAct) NationalDefenceCrisis (NationalDefenceAct) Emergencymanagementauthority Government / Prime Minister C2 GovernmentCrisisCommittee GovernmentSecurityCommittee COORD Risk Assessments JointThreatAssessments CAPABILITY PLANNING SectoralDevelopmentPlans NationalDefenceDevelopmentPlan EmergencyResponsePlans NationalDefenceContingencyPlan CONTINGENCY PLANNING

  9. Primary Data Source: Estonian MoI

  10. Capability–Building Approach

  11. Thankyou & Discussion • ramon.loik@icds.ee

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