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Hybrid Threats and Resilience through Civil Preparedness : An Academic View

Explore the concept of hybrid threats and resilience through civil preparedness, encompassing identification and targeting of vulnerabilities, dependency-building, and power projection. Discover the chain of resilience involving political, economic, military, intelligence, communications security, and civil preparedness aspects. Learn how to conceptualize resilience by ensuring sufficient civil preparedness at all levels to resist and recover from crises effectively.

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Hybrid Threats and Resilience through Civil Preparedness : An Academic View

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  1. Hybrid Threats and Resilience through Civil Preparedness:An Academic View • Ramon Loik • Research Fellow • International Centre for Defence and Security ICDS • Security and Resilience Programme

  2. (In-)Security and ‘Hybrid Threats’ • Security can be understood ascombination of external threats and internal vulnerabilities (B. Buzan). • Hybrid threats target vulnerabilities ofsociety both externally and internally (domestically): • Identification of vulnerabilities (Target Selection) • Targeting of vulnerabilities (Active Influencing) • Dependency–Building • ´Weaponizing´ of dependencies • Power Projection follows ...

  3. STATE (X) Proactive Interests (Intention) Resources Timing Active Influencing: State-sponsored proxies Intrest-driven proxies TARGET STATE / SOCIETY (Y) Reactive Fragmentation Polarization Cleavage Escalation Crises

  4. Complementary Perspectives:Chain of Resilience • Political, Economic and Diplomatic– • Military / Defense– (related concepts such as asymmetric and unconventional warfare) • Intelligence & Counter-Intelligence– • Communications (incl. Cyber) Security– • Civil Preparedness & Crises Management Perspective

  5. Conceptualizing Resilience • Resilience should ensure sufficient level of civil preparedness – households, communities, industries, infrastructuresand state(s) – to resist andrecoverfrom crises. • Resilience is multi-level and shouldcomprehensively binding together all societal resources available to withstand and recover from large-scale shocks. • Risks ~ ∫(External + Internal Threats Rating) / Consequences Rating x Vulnerability Rating

  6. Labels of Comprehensive Resilience-Building Source: Structure adapted form Møller (2012: 7). Content developed by Loik

  7. Example: Estonian Concept for Civil Protection

  8. Estonian National Crisis Management System CivilEmergencies (EmergencyAct) NationalDefenceCrisis (NationalDefenceAct) Emergencymanagementauthority Government / Prime Minister C2 GovernmentCrisisCommittee GovernmentSecurityCommittee COORD Risk Assessments JointThreatAssessments CAPABILITY PLANNING SectoralDevelopmentPlans NationalDefenceDevelopmentPlan EmergencyResponsePlans NationalDefenceContingencyPlan CONTINGENCY PLANNING

  9. Primary Data Source: Estonian MoI

  10. Capability–Building Approach

  11. Thankyou & Discussion • ramon.loik@icds.ee

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