Atlantic Agriculture in a Changing Climate David Burton, Ph.D, P.Ag Climate Change Chair NSAC

1. Atlantic Agriculture in a Changing ClimateDavid Burton, Ph.D, P.AgClimate Change ChairNSAC

2. Agriculture in a Changing Climate • The Climate Change Issue • Mitigation of impacts on the atmosphere • Adapting to changing climatic conditions • A new “climate” for agriculture • Increased scrutiny of the impacts of agriculture on the environment • Agriculture as industry • Agriculture a “price-taker”

3. We Must Mitigate and Adapt • Must seek to mitigate our impacts on the atmosphere • Need to minimize future impacts • For agriculture there are other environmental benefits • Will not prevent climate change therefore must also focus on adaptation • Agriculture most effected by climate • Climate variability greatest challenge

4. “SWOT” Analysis • Strengths • Weaknesses • Opportunities • Threats

5. Strengths • Diversity • Mixed farming systems • Increases economic stability in changing climate • Resourcefulness of producer community • Atlantic producers most highly educated • 43% have education beyond high school (Aubin et al., 2003).

6. Strengths • Most aware of climate change issue • Of those aware of climate change issue, 68% believe producers should take responsibility for reducing GHG emissions • Most willing to undertake voluntary action • Strong linkage to rural community

7. Weaknesses • Profit margins • Small differences between input costs and returns increases vulnerability • High debit ratio • Age of agricultural community • Average age 53 • 36% intend to retire in next 5 years • Who will be our future producers?

8. Weaknesses • Atlantic agriculture industry 4% of National • Sufficient support? • Concentration in agricultural sector • 23% corporate ownership • Tools for adaptation • Currently have few tools identified • Limited research and extension capacity

9. Weaknesses • Producer awareness • Only 1 in 4 producers aware of climate change or greenhouse gas issues • Producer skepticism • 1/3 of agriculture producers feel their will be no impact of climate change

10. Opportunities • Introduction of new crops to the region • Increased corn and soybean acreage? • Improved yields of existing crops • Longer growing season • CO2 fertilization • Warmer temperatures

11. Bootsma et al., 2001

12. Bootsma et al., 2001

13. Corn 2,300 ha @ 5.6 t/ha $2.4 Million Soybean 3,500 ha @ 2.3 t/h $2.0 Million Barley 55,000 ha @ 3 t/ha $23 Million $27.4 Million Corn 30,000 ha @ 7 t/ha $39 Million Soybean 20,000 ha @ 3.0 t/ha $20 Million Barley 25,000ha @ 3.15 t/ha $11 Million $70 Million Shift to Corn-Soybean-Barley rotation 2050 1995-1998

14. Opportunities • Impetus to develop risk management • Linkage between adaptation and mitigation • Must address entire system • Stress co-benefits • Provide integrated solutions

15. Uncertainty Do not have good future data sets Frequency of extreme events Threats

16. Smit et al., 2002

17. Frequency of extreme events Economic risks Direct - Producer and larger community Indirect - Volatility of markets Environmental Impact Threats

18. Pests impacts Greater numbers Change in pest spectrum Sea-level rise Loss of agricultural land Salt water intrusion Threats

19. Issues • Water management • Will there be sufficient water? Too much? • Other demands on water sources • Ability to retain water on landscape • Water quality • Potential for increased impacts on water quality • Salt water intrusion on groundwater

20. Issues • Economic risk management • Rationalize programs • Stable, predictable programs that can be part of long-term planning

21. Needs • Improved future climate scenarios • Increased understanding of vulnerability • Capacity - research and extension support • Engaging the university community • BIOCAP Canada • Atlantic Environmental Science Network Climate Change Cooperative

22. Thank You