The impact of Myanmar on the EU-ASEAN relationship Presentation: EIAS 5 February 2013

1. The impact of Myanmar on the EU-ASEAN relationshipPresentation: EIAS 5 February 2013 Sanne Brasch Kristensen Institute for Society and Globalisation Roskilde University Email: sanneb@ruc.dk

2. The presentation • Why is Myanmar an issue for the EU & ASEAN? • Myth: • “The EU does not really care about human rights in Myanmar – what matters is trade-relations with ASEAN” • EU-ASEAN political cooperation • EU-ASEAN and the FTA negotiations • Conclusion and outlook • Myanmar matters and might continue to do so.

3. The EU and Myanmar • Myanmar is seen as a threat to human rights and democracy. • Aung San SuuKyi as the symbol of human rights violations • The EU applied restrictive measures on the government of Myanmar in 1997 • Intention was to leave the population unharmed • EU’s identity is based on human rights and democracy • Therefore: Myanmar becomes a threat to the EU’s identity

4. ASEAN and Myanmar • Myanmar as a defense against China’s political and economic influence in the region • Sovereignty is fundamental to ASEAN • Constructive/enhanced engagement • ”we are not doing diplomacy through media” • ASEAN diplomat • Intervention in Myanmar would be a fundamental threat to sovereignty • De-stabilizing the whole region

5. Political Cooperation 1997-2010 • 1997-2000 Cooperation blocked due to EU sanctions: • The EU: ”it is clear that the presence of the Burmese minister would run counter to the EU's common position of Burma that bans the issuing of visas to diplomats” • Mr. Robin Cook, quoted in European Daily Bulletin, 1999 • ASEAN: ” ... We do not interfere (in Myanmar affairs) because we adhere to the Charter of the United Nations which forbids interference in other states” -Philippine Ambassador, quoted in Business Time 1997 • Rotterdam issue in 2005

6. Political cooperation1997-2010 • Mutual Mistrust due to Myanmar: • ASEAN perception of the EU: • ”The EU lacks real commitment …just look at development aid paid to Myanmar “ - ASEAN-Officials • The sanctionist policy “made the EU total non-credible in the eyes of ASEAN” • EU-Official • EU perception of ASEAN policy • ” the ASEAN policy of non-interference is ‘just a camouflage to do just that – nothing” – • EU-Diplomat

7. Political cooperation 2011-The change in the EU • EU becomes committed • sanctions suspended 2012 • Opens office in Yangon • Humanitarian and development aid improves • EU officials visit the region • “The remarkable transformation that is under way in Myanmar will further strengthen EU-ASEAN relations” -Asthon, quoted in Investvine • “I believe ASEAN is playing a positive role by putting pressure on Myanmar to walk in the right direction” • De Gucht, quoted in Jakarta Post

8. Political Cooperation 2011- • ASEAN’s rethorical change: • I hope that a long period of strained relations between ASEAN and the EU will be put behind us” • Dr Surin, Quoted in Jarkarta 2011 • “ASEAN finally believes in the EU” • Due to the visit of Asthon • ASEAN official

9. A change in ASEAN norms? • ASEAN norm of non-interference supplemented in the Charter of 2008 • Human rights and democracy officially a part of ASEAN norms • Non-interference still the dominating norm • “HR is important but you cannot be obsessed with it..development needs to be addressed before political issues” - ASEAN official • On a rhetorical level ASEAN became more critical of Myanmar • “... The Government of the Union of Myanmar, as a responsible member of ASEAN, had the responsibility to protect and promote human rights” - Chairman’s statement, 2009

10. From mistrust to ? • On a political level Myanmar did impact the EU-ASEAN relationship • A higher degree of trust after 2011: • Internal development in Myanmar allowed for different engagement by the EU • Now considered ‘real’ by ASEAN-countries • But – also a change in the ASEAN norms of non-interference and human right after 2008 • More open critique of Myanmar

11. Free Trade Agreement • Two stories in the EU on the issue of Myanmar and FTA: • Different levels of development in ASEAN-countries – it is not Myanmar per se. • Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia benefit from other agreements • ”Myanmar is present at EU-ASEAN business summits” -EU-diplomat • Myanmar’s human rights and democracy norms a problem: • “…the political issue is obviously the rights atrocities in Myanmar” -Karel de Gucht, quoted in Business Mirror

12. FTA – impact assessment -TRADE07/C1/C01 – Lot 2 • ASEAN could see its exports to the EU rise by 18.5% - and expect economic gains equivalent to 2% of its GDP by 2020. The EU could see its exports to ASEAN increase significantly - also increasing total EU global exports by almost 2%. - Global Europe, Brussels 2008

13. FTA – ASEAN perception • Myanmar is an obstacle to block-to-block FTA • What about the different levels of development internally in the EU? • ”No the real issue is Myanmar” - ASEAN-official • ”Agreements need to be inclusive – we don’t want a restricted agreement with 9+1” • ASEAN-official • “The understanding is that we are talking to the EU as a group of 10 member countries, and Myanmar is a member of ASEAN” • ASEAN-official • A block-to-block FTA ”will depend on how Myanmar is progressing” -ASEAN-official

14. Conclussion • The myth is a myth… sort of • Politically Myanmar blocked for cooperation • Myanmar has been an obstacle a region-region to FTA • The myth had a huge impact on ASEAN-EU relationship • Creating mutual mistrust • Trust was built due to: • Change in the EU practices on Myanmar • AND in ASEAN attitude

15. Outlook • The issue of Myanmar in the EU-ASEAN relationship is not solved • The EU’s sanctions are only suspended • Asthon: fighting in Kachin State threatens peace process • “The high-representative is deeply concerned about the continues fighting in Kachin State, putting at risk the nation-wide peace process and the gains already made” • Statement 15.01.13 • ASEAN has been very silent as a block

16. Outlook –continued • Region-to-region FTA negotiations is about to be started again in 2015 • 2015: ASEAN Regional Economic Community to be launched • The EU will reconsider the issue of regional FTA • But it will also depend on the political situation in Myanmar • If the political issue is not solved the EU-ASEAN relationship might be affected once more

17. Thank you for your attention 