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Mapping Stocking Rates in Scotland: Integrating JAC and IACS data

Mapping Stocking Rates in Scotland: Integrating JAC and IACS data. Keith Matthews, Dave Miller, James Sample and Sarah Dunn. Agricultural Statistics User Conference, July 2013, Edinburgh. Outline. Datasets Calculations Complications Outputs Applications Future CAP Activity M easures

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Mapping Stocking Rates in Scotland: Integrating JAC and IACS data

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  1. Mapping Stocking Rates in Scotland: Integrating JAC and IACS data Keith Matthews, Dave Miller, James Sample and Sarah Dunn Agricultural Statistics User Conference, July 2013, Edinburgh

  2. Outline • Datasets • Calculations • Complications • Outputs • Applications • Future CAP Activity Measures • Designated Sites • Water Quality • Woodland Expansion

  3. Datasets • IACS • SG-RPID dataset derived from SAF forms - claims • >5M ha coverage in 2009, increasing • Linked to field mapping (GIS) • Land use, ownership, rentals etc. • JAC • Livestock numbers (and several other items for related projects) • Other datasets • Common Grazings – beyond those in IACS • National Forest Inventory (decadal) • Linkage – holding numbers, FID-Holding-BRN

  4. IACS+ Examples

  5. SR Calculation • Forage area – land use classification (IACS crop codes) • Livestock numbers – simplified classes – cattle, sheep and deer • Conversion to livestock units (LSU) – weightings • Cow-calf = 1.0 • Ewe-lamb = 0.12 • Deer = 0.3 • Simplification – JAC will support much more detailed calculations – see SAC Farm Management Handbook • SR = LSU/Forage Area

  6. Complications & Compromises • IACS + JAC • JAC (LU and Stock)+ IACS • Crofters + JAC – shares, apportionments and in-bye • JAC + JAC - not mapped – some limits on rentals data, type not specified.

  7. Rental Issues • Rentals only accounted for in seasonal SAF sheets • Business not holding • But - mismatch ~150,000 ha - rental-in by non IACS – no matching record for the rental-out • Rental-in only specified as business not holding (issue when multi-holding business – which livestock to associate) • In raw IACS data some coding issues, e.g. claims for all area even though renting records exist. Rules based clean up, limiting to GIS areas, rental-in prioritised as most reliable.

  8. Limitations • Business level • Single date • Averages over all grazing land – mixed businesses particularly challenging – e.g. SW dairy and Highland sheep in separate holdings • Other factors may mitigate or exacerbate any consequences of stocking – e.g. availability of housing

  9. Outputs • National SR map • Regional or sectoralbreakdowns • Relationships with other variables

  10. Future CAP: Activity Requirements • Example of an SR base activity requirement • SR value was 0.12 lsu/ha • Used scale-back from Pack Inquiry not the guillotine of the agreed regulation • Significant effects

  11. Designated Areas • Discussion of activity measures for Pillar 1 CAP and Areas of Natural Constraint in Pillar 2 • Range of SRs for combinations of designations • Unmapped area significant

  12. Water Quality: Nitrates Directive Review • SR estimates spatial distribution of manure production • IACS data used to infer application rates of inorganic fertilisers • Used as inputs to a spatially distributed nitrate leaching model (NIRAMS II) • Map surface and groundwater monitoring as one strand of evidence in the 2013 Nitrates Directive review

  13. Woodland Expansion Advisory Group • 10,000 ha per annum afforestation aspiration • Consequences for livestock numbers • Regional and land capability break-downof SR areas

  14. Conclusions • Feasible – useful despite some limits • Improvements – a move to holding basis would eliminate cross-holding averages – rentals issues can be solved • New cattle movement datasets from CTS now underpin JAC so more sophistication possible here • Move beyond SR – lifecycle of livestock within EPIC exposure to environments and linkage to disease • Future CAP activity criteria – if SR based, then a far more rigorous set of calculations will be needed

  15. Contacts • Dr Keith MatthewsThe James Hutton InstituteCraigiebuckler, AberdeenEmail: keith.matthews@hutton.ac.ukWeb: http://www.hutton.ac.uk/staff/keith-matthews • Dr James SampleEmail: james.sample@hutton.ac.ukWeb: http://www.hutton.ac.uk/staff/james-sample

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