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MA 276: Sports and statistics Lecture 9: Statistics and referee behavior

MA 276: Sports and statistics Lecture 9: Statistics and referee behavior. Goals. Overview of referee literature Responses to cues Effects on game. Tools. Visualizations Natural experiments Linear and logistic regression Differences in Differences Generalized additive models.

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MA 276: Sports and statistics Lecture 9: Statistics and referee behavior

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  1. MA 276: Sports and statisticsLecture 9: Statistics and referee behavior

  2. Goals • Overview of referee literature • Responses to cues • Effects on game Tools • Visualizations • Natural experiments • Linear and logistic regression • Differences in Differences • Generalized additive models

  3. Pre-lesson activity • Soccer: extra time (Garicano et al) • NFL: sideline (Lopez) • Soccer: empty stadia (Priks)

  4. For your article Read abstract, methods, results, discussion. • Describe goal • Methods and notation • Findings • Practical and statistical significance

  5. Summary Soccer: extra time (Garicano et al)

  6. Summary Soccer: extra time (Garicano et al)

  7. Summary NFL: sideline (Lopez) Generalized additive model: -fixed effect for sideline -useful for non-linear associations by LOS -allows for `wiggliness` -more flexibility

  8. Summary NFL: sideline (Lopez)

  9. Summary NFL: sideline (Lopez)

  10. Summary Natural experiment: serendipitous scenarios in observational data where assignment to treatment approximates a randomized design or a well-controlled experiment -What’s the benefit? Soccer: empty stadia (Priks)

  11. Summary Soccer: empty stadia (Priks)

  12. Summary Soccer: empty stadia (Priks)

  13. Summary Soccer: empty stadia (Priks)

  14. Why referees? • Tasked with making impartial decisions • Testing ground for social biases • Data – lots of it • Unique designs of sport

  15. Why not referees? • Confounded data – examples? • Actionable? • Unique designs of sport

  16. Additional findings, racial bias Price & Wolfers:

  17. Additional findings, racial bias Price & Wolfers:

  18. Additional findings, racial bias Price & Wolfers:

  19. Additional findings, racial bias Price & Wolfers:

  20. Additional findings, racial bias Price & WolfersPart II:

  21. Additional findings, racial bias Racial bias in MLB (Parsons et al): MLB bias potentially overstated (Tainsky)

  22. Additional findings, sequential calls Make-up calls (Lopez & Davis): But why? What does this suggest?

  23. Additional findings, sequential calls Make-up calls (Gift): But why? What does this suggest?

  24. Additional findings, timing matters Timing of NFL penalties (Snyder and Lopez): OHR: Holding, run plays OHP: Holding, pass plays DPI: Defensive pass interference But why? What does this suggest?

  25. Additional findings, monitoring Monitoring improves performance (Mills): But why? What does this suggest? Effects on baseball?

  26. More fun ones Mills: MLB strike zone by position, count Zitzewitz: Favorable Olympic judging Nevill: Crowd noise experiment, ref experience Frank & Gilovich: Uniform color Gift & Rodenberg: Napolean complex

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