Energy Efficiency in the EU15: Achievements and Prospects

1. “Conference on the Future of Energy in Enlarged Europe: Perspectives for R&D Co-operation“ A contribution within the context of the Weimar Triangle Warsaw, 7- 8th October 2004 Energy Efficiency in the EU15: Achievements and Prospects Wolfgang Eichhammer Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research www.isi.fraunhofer.de Karlsruhe, Germany

2. Energy Efficiency - The sextuple dividend “The double dividend” • Reduction of environmental burden (CO2, local pollution) • Effects on employment/competitiveness • Supply security: protection to oil/gas price shocks • Economy: protection to “oil/pas price intoxication” (Yoyo in energy prices; high energy prices in slowly recovering economy) • Savings on oil stocks (90 days provision) • Energy Efficiency: Trigger for Innovation

3. Energy Efficiency • Where we are and our policies

4. Energy efficiency is improving … until 1998 : almost 10% since 1990: main improvement in industry with 17% against, 6% in transport and 5% in households; slow-down since 1998 ODEX Odyssee Bottom-up Index for Energy Efficiency "Dow Jones for Energy Efficiency" Source: Odyssee Database www.odyssee-indicators.org

5. Change in Efficiency Standards of New Dwellings: Specific Consumption Index Some of our most performant national policies Source: Odyssee Database www.odyssee-indicators.org

6. Consumption for heating in the EU: per dwelling , stable on average , but decrease per m2 ; regular reduction for new dwellings because of re-enforcement in standards • Recent revisions in 8 countries Italy (94), Germany (95 & 02), Denmark(95) Netherlands (95, 98 & 00), Ireland (97), Austria France (01), Greece (95 & 01) • Planned reinforcement in 3 countries Finland (03), UK , France and Denmark (05) On average , 4 revisions since 1973in most countries with an energy saving of 60% for dwellings built now compared to 1973 • But limited impact on average unit consumption:in 1999, dwellings built since 1990 only represent 8% of total heating consumption larger dwellings offset half of the reduction in consumption per m2 Source: Odyssee Database www.odyssee-indicators.org

7. Limits to policy: Impact of hypothetical building regulation every 6 years on stock (lifestyle !)

8. Policy Impact ! Not autonomous Success of a consistent and comprehensive policy, of an innovative and proactive industry, as well as of receptive consumers Source: MURE database (www.mure2.com)

9. Taking into account lifestyle changes (larger refrigerators) this was still the equivalent of half the EU wind industry and several large nuclear plants. In the next 15 years this can be doubled !

10. Household electricity consumption by type of appliances: successful energy policies versus social trends The race between equipment levels and policy Labelling Policies In particular ICT Source: Odyssee Database 2002

11. Message 1: Successful but…. • We were quite successful in improving energy efficiency in the fields where we had coherent policies. • However, behaviour/rebound effects will destroy in many occasions our efforts • Two strategies: either be even more stronger in the technology field or tackle behaviour

12. Message from a recent evaluation of energy efficiency measures in the residential sector (EU15) What we will achieve in the present decade: 500-700 PJ What we have achieved in the past decade: 500-600 PJ What we have to achieve according to the proposed EU Energy Service Directive: 1400 PJ What we can achieve in an economic manner: 1500 PJ We need to double our efforts in energy efficiency in the present and in particular the future decades not taking in account behaviour and living standard ! Source: MURE www.mure2.com

13. Message 2: "Lead policy" measure needed • We need a "lead policy" measure for the field of energy efficiency that can provide us with targets for the next decades similar to the RES-E Directive for renewables • The proposed EU Directive for Energy Service (1% improvement per year beyond autonomous improvement) has the potential for such a "Lead policy" measure and needs a strong political support in all EU member states.

14. Armory Lovin‘s Bathroom Plug (today) How we use energy today

15. Armory Lovin‘s bathroom plug 2080 Product/Material Strategies Nanotechnologies Biotechnologies ….. 2080 Current efficiency level No-regret potentials 2020 Energy Efficiency R&D 2040 The Future

16. Message 3: Coherent agenda needed • We need a coherent R&D agenda with long-term targets and intermediate milestones beyond FP6 bundling more strongly advances in other fields such as nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, material sciences and efficiency into the improvement of energy efficiency. • This agenda needs to be determined together with the private sector (transport sector, industrial sector, products for the residential sector, supply industries) • We need more energy efficiency technology platforms beyond the steel technology platform proposed currently, based on our problems: e.g "how to reduce consumption levels in existing buildings to the level of new buildings without 50 cm of insulation", "how to reduce stand-by consumption to close to zero", "how to reduce the weight of our cars to the half" (benefit also to hydrogen, electric cars, biofuel cars,…) • We need to communicate the results of this agenda more regularly and more officially to the public: renewables and hydrogen have by far a better PR-Strategy than energy efficiency ! • We need to consider behavioural aspects in addition to technology aspects

17. White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D-The 2000 Watt SocietyIf you want to build a ship,don ’t drum up the men to gather wood,divide the work and give orders.Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea.Antoine de Saint Exupéry Source: White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D CEPE (Switzerland) http://www.cepe.ethz.ch/publications/list.htm#4

18. Long-term energy saving potentials industrial sector: Distance of current energy consumption to minimum energy consumption The task is difficult…

19. QSL-Process for the smelting of lead QSL process Classical lead shaft furnace …but not impossible

20. Lead Smelting (QSL-Process in Germany) • The essential energetical progress of the new process consisted in: • the unification of two previously separate process steps in one reaction vessel, of which one is exothermal (lead roasting), the other endothermal (lead reduction). • in the reduction of recirculated raw materials in the sinter step • In the demonstration phase 40 % energy savings were achieved, in the industrial application over 25 %. Investment costs were lowered by about 20 %.

21. Applications of nanotechnology for the energy sector Source: ESTIR Project (Fraunhofer ISI)

22. Supercapacitors to avoid oversizing of car engines Source: White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D CEPE (Switzerland)

23. Looking beyond present savings: More economic flat screens…rethinking our products in the light of energy efficiency right from the R&D stage Source: Science et Vie 2004

24. Application of biotechnological processes to energy supply and demand • Production of energy sources from various raw materials and sources: Established processes use biomass in order to generate hydrogen, ethanol, methanol, and acetone with butanol and ethanol (ABE). Innovative process optimization focus on the use of cheaper carbon sources and aim on the improvement of strains and strain metabolism by genetic engineering. A third area for innovation is the improved efficiency of product recovery. • Biogas and biomass for energy generation employ biotechnological techniques as well, however at present there are little efforts for high-tech improvement. • Application of photosynthesis for energy generation. At present this process is pure basic research. According to experts industrial applications are expected to have a long term perspective for commercialization. • Bioleaching: extraction of specific metals from their ores through the use of bacteria (relevant for low-concentration ores, e.g. for copper. Source: ESTIR Project (Fraunhofer ISI)

25. The long-term improvement of energy efficiency has many legs... Direct efficiency improvement in the chain from energy supply to use Process substitution Lowering the demand for useful energy Recycling of energy-intensive materials Reduce the specific material consumption (”Dematerialisation”) Product recycling and lifetime extension/ intensification of product use Use of biogenic raw materials Energy Material See also: Dematerialisation less clear than it seems www.vhknet.com/download/dematerialisation.pdf

26. Informal Environment Council - Dutch EU presidency (16-18 July 2004) • Objective: emphasise on strategic chances for European industry: Eco-efficiency as main driver for creating a highly innovative European industry. In a Porter perspective, Europe has a unique possibility to create jobs and strong (new) industries for the future by emphasising eco-efficiency as a key drive. • Scoping: Use eco-efficiency as a key motor of European competitiveness • Concrete goal: • Development of eco-efficient systems - with the aim of building global leadership in new industrial markets (including the service economy). Broader than just environmental technologies • More focus on industry (putting eco-efficiency into action) and high level policy makers (supportive instruments) • Chose investments in eco-efficient systems that are (or can become) highly competitive in the global market How to make eco-efficiency innovations happen in practice

27. Message 4: Innovation supporting policy context • Innovations for energy efficiency can only grow in a steady policy environment providing strong incentives and clear messages (unless the oil exporting countries and oil price speculation are doing the job for us). High energy prices (but lower energy cost for the consumer at the end!) are unfortunately part of such an innovation supporting context. See also: Clean, Clever and Competitive Presidency conclusions Informal Environment Council 16-18 July 2004 www2.vrom.nl/docs/internationaal/IEC_Conclusions.pdf

28. Potential for energy efficiency improvement in New EU Members (1) Source: www.ceec-indicators.org

29. Potential for energy efficiency improvement in New EU Members (2) Source: www.ceec-indicators.org

30. Message 5: Seize opportunities • The new EU Member States have through the renewal of their production tools as well as the car and building stocks the chance to take energy efficiency improvement very seriously into account. Once this moment is over, the chance will only come back …30-100 years later

31. Energy Efficiency R&D Fields for Co-operation in the Weimar Triangle and beyond • Setting a common and comprehensive European agenda for energy efficiency based on a White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D aiming at a 1% improvement for energy efficiency per year for at least half of this century. This strategy should include and bundle in particular advances for energy efficiency in the fields of nanotechnologies, biotechnologies and material sciences. • Supporting "Lead Policies" such as the proposed Energy Service Directive that pave the way for short as well as long-term energy efficiency improvements. • Creating, in co-operation with industrial actors, innovation clusters /centres for excellence / technology platforms in the field of energy efficiency • Investigating behavioural aspects of efficient use of energy • Extending monitoring and evaluation tools for energy efficiency such as ODYSSEE (www.odyssee-indicators.org) and MURE (www.mure2.com) to New Member States (partially ongoing)