The German Focal Research Area „Quantitative Precipitation Forecast“

1. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast The German Focal Research Area „Quantitative Precipitation Forecast“ Clemens Simmer Meteorological Institute University Bonn

2. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast DWD Motivation: Quality of Numerical Weather Forecast increases – except for precipitation ECMWF

3. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Quality of Precipitation Forecast (DWD) Quelle: Ebert et al. 2003: BAMS, S. 481-492, Fig. 4 • starting 0,1 mm/Day 4 mm/Day 8 mm/Day • Germany, Daily Precipitation • Systematic overestimation of low rainrates has decreased • Quality of forecast of strong precipitation has decreased

4. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Similar Problems for all NWP Models Quelle: Ebert et al. 2003: BAMS, S. 481-492, Fig. 4

5. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Goals of the Priority Program Improve QPF by the • identification of the physical and chemical processes responsible for deficits • exploration and application of existing and new data sets for data assimilation and improved representation of relevant processes • determination of the predictability of precipitation using statistical dynamical analyses

6. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Coordination Andreas Hense (Chair), University Bonn Gerhard Adrian, German Weather Service Christoph Kottmeier, University/Research Center Karlsruhe Clemens Simmer, University Bonn Volker Wulfmeyer (Coordinator COPS), University Hohenheim Susanne Crewell (Coordinator GOP), University Munich

7. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Structure of SPP 1167

8. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Time Schedule and Funds • Acceptance: May 2003 • Start: April 2004 • Duration: 6 years • Funding periods: 3 x 2 years until 2010

9. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast 1. Phase Projects - Overview 1 x Overall Coordination 1 x Preparation of Field Experiment 3 x Development and Use of Ensemble Technique 5 x Data Assimilation Techniques 3 x Nowcasting Techniques 1 x Improvement of Numerical Techniques 3 x Verification Studies 2 x Cloud/Precipitation Microphysics 2 x Convection Parametrisation 3 x Effects of the Land Surface and Orography

10. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Current Projects (1) Short-range QPF by combining observations of water vapour, wind and clouds with advanced methods in data assimilation. Prediction of convective precipitation: Application of a novel two-moment cloud microphysical scheme A nonlocal and hybrid cumulus parameterization scheme for use in nonhydrostatic weather prediction models Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts using multi-dimensional remote sensing observations Statistical-dynamical methods for scale dependent model evaluation and short term precipitation forecasting Stochastic Parameterisation of Precipitation in Ensemble Simulations with an Intermediate Complexity General Circulation Model On the potential of total lightning data for nowcasting of thunderstorms and precipitation Hybrid probabilistic forecast scheme for postfrontal shower precipitation Generation and validation of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts using breeding and Ensemble Kalman methods with the global model GME

11. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Current Projects (2) Multiple scales analysis of precip. clouds: Feas. study for selected cloud types Spectral microphyics with special emphasis on cloud droplet nucleation Mechanisms and prediction of precipitation over complex terrain The influence of aerosols - cloud interactions on precipitation formation and predictability Preconditions to GPS water vapour tomography with a resolution relevant for data assimilation in weather forecast models Improved water vapour and wind initialization for precipitation forecast: from existing lidar data towards targeted observations Development of a resolution-dependent parameterization for surface fluxes with inclusion of sub-grid-scale land-use effects Quantitative precipitation forecasts using ensemble forecast modeling, Bayesian chains, evolutionary algorithms, variational assimilation, physical initialisation and nudging Quantification of topographic effects for typical Elbe-catchments in the Erzgebirge Streamflow data assimilation for numerical weather prediction models The verification of precipitation forecasts from numerical models on short time-scales over Germany with pattern-oriented error measures

12. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Observations Gerneral Observation Period (GOP) during 2007 • Collection and analysis of all currently available data • Interaction between European monitoring stations • Setup of an ARM-Station in the IOP region Intensive Observation Period (IOP) during summer 2007 Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS)

13. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Orography in Germany Overlay: Mean precipitation amounts in summer, average between 1901 and 2000 (DWD Klimastatusbericht 2001) GOP area IOP COPS (Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study): Region: Southwestern Germany Duration: 3 months Date: Summer 2007 Coverage: about 200 km x 200 km IOP area Observation Period 2007

14. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast THORPEX Regional Campaign GOP region TRACKS region IOP target region MAP FDP region International Cooperations

15. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Observing Systems Synergy Cloud radars Precipitation radars Lidars • K-, X-, C- or S-band, • n = 2 – 10 GHz,   15 – 3 cm, • Reflectivity, LOS velocity, refractivity in precipitation •   0.3 – 2 m, =1015–1.51014 Hz • apar, bpar, d ( liquid/ice), q, T, LOS wind in clear air, aerosol layers and thin clouds • Ka- or W-band • n = 35 – 95 GHz,   9 – 3 mm • Particle reflectivity factor, depolarization ( liquid/ice), LOS velocity in clouds MW +FTIR • The full potential of synergetic measurements is not explored yet, e.g.: • Reff in clouds using lidar and cloud radar (Donovan et al. 2001) • CCN using lidar, cloud radar and MW radiometer (Feingold et al. 1997) 20-190 GHz, IR • LWC(z), q(z), T(z), ...

16. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Goals of COPS  Improve the skill of short-range QPF, e.g. for applications in hydrology  Investigate the predictability of convective precipitation  Understand the 3-d development of convection  Separate model errors due to initialization and parameterization

17. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Science Steering Group of COPS Prof. Dr. Volker Wulfmeyer, IPM, UHOH, Germany, Chair Prof. Dr. Christoph Kottmeier, IMK, Karlsruhe, Germany, Co-Chair Prof. Dr. Gerhard Adrian, DWD, Offenbach, Germany Dr. Edward V. Browell, NASA LaRC, Hampton, Virginia, USA Dr. Alan Blyth, School of Environment, University of Leeds, UK Prof. Dr. Susanne Crewell, Institute of Meteorology, LMU, Munich, Germany Prof. Dr. Kenneth J. Davis, Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, USA Prof. Dr. Hartmut Graßl, MPIfM, Hamburg, Germany Dr. R. Michael Hardesty, NOAA ETL, USA Prof. Dr. Jost Heintzenberg, Institute for Tropospheric Research, Leipzig, Germany Dr. Einar-Arne Herland*, ESA Prof. Dr. Jos Lelieveld, MPIfC, Mainz, Germany Dr. Dave Parsons, MMM, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, USA Dr. Evelyne Richard, Aeronomy Laboratory, Toulouse, France Dr. Herman Russchenberg, IRCTR, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands Prof. Dr. Christoph Schär, IAC, ETH Zurich, Switzerland Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schumann, IPA, DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany Prof. Dr. Reinhold Steinacker, Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria

18. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Gerneral Observing Period 2007Goals : • Gather all available observations routinely performed in the GOP area (rain gauges, three-dimensional RADAR observations,..) • Support institutes to operate their "standard instruments" during the whole GOP (for example FZK-IFU Garmisch, UBern, UBonn, IfT,...) • Redistribute instruments within GOP area to obtain the atmospheric state at certain sites as complete as possible • Cooperate with the European Observatories (Cabauw, Chilbolton, Lindenberg, SIRTA) • Perform long-term observations within the COPS experiment area

19. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Obser-vations ForwardOperator Retrieval WeatherForecasts Gerneral Observing Period 2007Goals: • Data base of quality controlled ground-based and satellite remote sensing observations matched with Lokal-Modell simulations high resolution time series satellite overpasses • Forward modelling tools to simulate the multi-dimensional observations from model output microwave and polarimetric radar simulator • Investigation of the process chain from water vapour to precipitation at the ground using data from past field experiments (CLIWA-NET, BBC1+2, LITFASS2003, VERTIKATOR) • One full year evaluation of Lokal-Modell forecasts using the observation-to-model and model-to-observation approaches

20. Priority Program SPP 1167 of the DFG Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Relevance for BALTEX Phase II • Contribution to IP objectives • Better understanding of energy and water cycle • Improved tools for water management • Contribute to GOP 2007 to obtain a more European perspective • Contribute to IOP with measurements • …