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Integrating Biophysical and Socioeconomic Model Outputs

Integrating Biophysical and Socioeconomic Model Outputs. Dr. Randall Ritzema IWMI. Background.

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Integrating Biophysical and Socioeconomic Model Outputs

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  1. Integrating Biophysical and Socioeconomic Model Outputs Dr. Randall Ritzema IWMI

  2. Background • Goal of Nile Basin Development Challenge Project 4 (N4) is to assess potential impacts- both biophysical and socioeconomic- at the basin scale resulting from implementation of Rainwater Management Strategies • To assess impacts, need to link biophysical and socioeconomic processes • Modeling has proceeded along disciplinary lines, and at differing scales: • Hydrologic: SWAT, APEX • Water resource management: WEAP • Economic: ECOSAUT • Crop: CropWat, AquaCrop • Livestock: ILRI livestock water productivity model • This presentation: initial ideas on model integration

  3. Basin-level BP/SE integration frameworks Explicit Integration Sectoral Linkage To link and extrapolate BP and SE processes Resource Management Typology

  4. Resource Management Typology • Delineate population segment which manages BP resources in target catchment • Partition population segment into RM units • Assumption: Economic decisions made at HH level • Livelihood Profiles suggest different HH production systems w/i Livelihood Zones • HH’s can therefore be aggregated into RMUs based on BP and SE attribute similarities • Assumption: Access/benefit/cost is equitably distributed within RMU • Water/Land “management” mapping- establish BP resource flows from/to RMUs

  5. Resource Management Typology • FEWSNET/LIU Livelihood Zones/Profiles: natural RMU definitions • Ethiopian Rural Economic Atlas: population/HH distributions • Full spatial / economic coverage: satisfies need for extrapolation

  6. Sectoral Linkage Approach: BP-initiated BP Tools N3 Feasibility Mapping SWAT AquaCROP HDM via RMUs ( ECOSAUT) Flows (unimpaired) • Considerations: • Potential of fragmented linkages • Use of MCA to understand interactions • Feedbacks? WEAP Sediment SE Impact Indicators Flows (impaired)

  7. Sectoral Linkage Approach: SE initiated Verification of assumptions? Expected yield & water use Other econ inputs BP Tools Apex-verified SWAT AquaCROP RMU charac- terization HDM: RMU (modified ECOSAUT) SISM (modified HDM) DDM Land use to HRU’s Flows (unimpaired) Irrigation Demand WEAP Carry-over water availability • Considerations: • Use of N3 mapping to constrain RMU decision-making • One “optimal” decision set per set of imposed conditions • Feedbacks? Sediment SE Impact Indicators Flows (impaired)

  8. Explicit Integration Approach N3 Feasibility Mapping Systems Dynamics integrated model Flow/sediment response module characterization (subcatchment) Apex-verified SWAT RMU charac- terization Crop response / irrigation demand module characterization AquaCROP • Considerations: • Feedbacks embedded; addresses fragmented linkages • Potential to assess many scenarios, uncertainty • Depends upon effective modules Sediment SE Impact Indicators Flows

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