From the small to the BIG picture

1. Stephen Cashman Consultancy & Training From the small to the BIG picture Identifying the IMPLICATIONS of UK audience data for the arts & arts marketing

2. Working in the realm of Futurecasting … • AKA ‘futures thinking’, ‘foresight’ or being ‘future wise’ • About identifying trends and their implications

3. Words of caution & of solace… • “Every generation believes it lives in a time of accelerated change”Nicholas Imparato & Oren Harari [1994] Jumping the Curve • “We can’t predict the future, but we can prepare for it”Old corporate planning maxim

4. Also in the world of ‘evidence based’ policy making • A ‘good’ conclusion … … is a robust conclusion … which is an informed one • Hence driven byINTELLIGENCE

5. Session focus as much on PROCESS (the how to) as CONTENT(the what)

6. ‘f’ thinking & horizon scanning a vital role performed by marketers and other strategists

7. Marketer as boundary spanner The organisation The environment On look out duty The Boundary Spanners (Jemison [1984])

8. NEWS FLASH Breaking UK stories from the near futurewith potential consequences for the arts & audiences

9. Sick duck in China triggers H5N1 flu pandemic MILLIONS OF PEOPLE DIE

10. Identity theft still Britain’s FASTEST GROWING CRIME

11. Introduction of IDENTITY CARDS gives each UK citizen unique BIOMETRIC reference

12. Slowing Gulf Stream leaves Britainwith SIBERIAN CLIMATE

13. UK blessed by a wealth of micro arts / audience data, information & knowledge … T G I MORI research for RESOURCE Social Trends Census 2001 Arts in England Towards 2010 Regional Trends

14. Although good the data are less than perfect … • Rarely compiled on a common & consistent basis • Challenges here include how to assess: • Participation as well as consumption • Ticketed / paid for events PLUS non-ticketed / free events & transient door sales • What people really want from an arts experience and how they perceive it

15. Issues 1 & 2 What needs to be done to make collection of data consistent? What would be a new & useful definition of ‘the arts & culture’?

16. UK arts attendances are more or less static %of adults Source: ONS [2003] Social Trends 33 (using data from BMRB Target Group Index)

17. A 36% personal relevance gap ‘The arts - they’re great but are not for me(?)’ % who Strongly agree or agree Source: ACE [2002] Arts in England

18. ‘There should be public subsidy - especially for arts near me’ % saying this Source: ACE [2002] Arts in England

19. Issues 3 & 4 What might be done in the UK to increase levels of arts use & a sense of personal relevance? What future is there for UK public subsidy and how do we secure it?

20. 2014 Projections The demographic timebomb [DTB] goes off Under 16 Pop m 65 & over Year Source: ONS [2003] Social Trends 33

21. The actuality: 2007… Proportion of UK population older than 65, will EXCEEDthat for 14year olds or younger

22. More aspects & potential consequences of the DTB • By 2025 there will be 1.6 m more people aged 65 & over than there are under 16s • People age 50 & over control 80% of UK disposable wealth • Grandparents becoming primary carers & gatekeepers for young people • NB The UK’s looming pensions crisis and prospect of working until we’re 70

23. Issues 5 & 6 Should the UK arts persist in its apparent obsession with the young - and why? How might our provision be changed to embrace the major opportunity of ‘3rd agers’?

24. All wired now? - the rapid rise of digital media • 39% of UK households have access to the Internet (Source: Social Trends 33) • 14% of UK people used the Net to view or listen to the arts (Source: Arts in England) • UK DVD sales of ‘Harry Potter & the Chamber of Secrets’ hit 1million in 1st two days on sale

25. Spending on DVDs is booming UKspend on DVDs £s m Source: ONS [2003] Social Trends 33

26. There’s a media avalanche going on … • So time is the new currency: “consumers now make choices based on what offers the best value for time”Andrew Curry, The Henley Centre [2002] The Disappointment Gap, AMA Conference

27. Beware - the ‘amazing shrinking attention span’ • For the arts an increased desire for things that streamline time use imply: • Value for time media such as radio & TV • Flexible opening & programming times • Art in short bursts Source: ACE / The Henley Centre [2000] Towards 2010

28. Issues 7 & 8 How might ‘authentic’ arts experiences compete with digitised alternatives? (A need for a CAMRA?) How shall we compete for scarce time?

29. The identified issues • 1. Making data collection consistent • 2. Redefining ‘the arts & culture’ • 3. How to increase levels of use & personal relevance • 4. Securing the future of Public Subsidy • 5. The emphasis on arts & young people • 6. Embracing the ‘3rd age’ opportunity • 7. Emphasising physical authenticity • 8. Competing for scarce time

30. Micro research data ANALYSIS Initial findings & conclusions Plan of action Virtuous learning cycle Relatedtocontext Sense of implications Reflecting on the process

31. “Too much information”? Avoiding the risk of drowning in data

32. Seeing the wood for the trees means keeping a sense of PERSPECTIVE

33. enIGMA thinking(after Pam Henderson & kate Whitlock [2005]) • Enquire if a trend is something you can: • INFLUENCE • GAIN FROM • MONITORor • AVOID

34. “Either we take hold of the future, or the future will take hold of us”Patrick Dixon [2002] Futurewise - six faces of global change