Department of Strategic and Defence Studies

1. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Regional Conflicts & Natural Resources Looking for Reasons, Rationale and Solutions DirectorColonel, Lic.Pol.Sci Juha Pyykönen Sustainable Global Technologies HUT, 16 Oct 2006

2. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Regional Conflicts & Natural Resources • Part I • Short introduction to a theoretical approach • Case Study: Oil & Middle East • Part II • Explaining past, current and future conflicts through their root reasons

3. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Regional Conflicts & Natural Resources • Part I • Theoretical approach is based on Strategic Studies • state actors and their security goals to be met through necessary means • a state is sovereign (nobody above to govern, anarchy=lack of governance) • most important is sovereignty and independence of a state • common distrust (=security dilemma) resulting to arms race, competition • key definitions: (limits indicate number of deaths per year [25], total [1000]) • a conflict: umbrella for all situations where contradicting interests are dealt with organized violence or a threat of it, includes a crisis • a crisis: situation with high level of threat and risk together with large destruction • a war: an organized and politically directed violence between sovereign states • tools for conflict/crisis/war management: numerous civilian and military activities in order to control and de-escalate in proportion to the level of a conflict/crisis/war

4. GRAND STRATEGY of a state National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies POLITICAL REALISMMAJOR FACTORS of a Grand Strategy Resources Geopolitical Political Military

5. GEOGRAPHICAL factors • Location • Size and Shape • Internal structure • Terrain, waterways, obstacles • Climate • Soil, vegetation • Natural Resources • RESOURCE factors • Natural resources • Population • Economics (structure, productivity, quality) • Transport, Communication (SLOC) • Academic research • Technical development • Costs National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies D I S T A N C E S • POLITICAL factors • Political system, level of integration • Political interests and goals • Political situation (internal, global) • Political history • Conception of the world • International agreements, commitments • Common opinion • MILITARY factors • Military leadership • Threat scenarios • Military strategy • Military power and organisation • Technology • Experiences, common tradition • National cohesion

6. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies • Conflicts have changed since the Cold War • Main reasons for the change • International system is more flexible (multi-/unipolar) • Concept of security is much broader • Closer linkage between political and economic • Characteristics • “Nukes” lost its linkage to Low Intensity Conflicts • No states as parties to conflict, but non-state • “Victory” as final goal less important, but compromises • Need for new tools for conflict/crisis management

7. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Conflicts since WW II (1945-) 1 Annual number of civilian and inter-state conflicts

8. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Conflicts since WW II (1945-) 2 Armed conflicts 1990-2000 (Wallensteen-Sollenberg 2001)

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10. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Conflict Pyramid/Ladder/Cycle

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13. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies • Part II • Explaining past, current and future conflicts • through their root reasons • 1st Example: Population and Civil Conflict • (Cincotta R. – Engelman, R. – Anastasion, D.: The Security Demographic. Population and Civil Conflicts after the Cold War, Population Action International, 2003) • 3 stress factors add to the risk of a civil conflict • “Young Adults” • “Urbanization” • “Availability of water and cropland” • In addition, losing 10% of work force in every 5 years

15. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies • Part II • Explaining past, current and future conflicts through their root reasons • 2 nd Example: Governance and Civil Conflict • (World Bank) • Freedom of Opinion, Responsibility: political, societal, human rights • 2) Political instability and violence, incl. terrorism • 3) Good Governance: governance and quality of public services • 4) Level of Administration in Economy: hindrances of economy • 5) Rule of Law: Police, Independent Jurisdiction, Crime etc. • 6) Level of Corruption

16. Best with all 6 indicators • Lähde: World Bank

17. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies • Part II • Explaining past, current and future conflicts through their root reasons • 3rd Example: Conflict Indicators • (World Bank) • 9 indicating factors in relation to the risk of a conflict • “Low Per Capita” • “Primary Commodity Exports” (Dependence on) • “Youth Unemployment” • “Militarization” (GNP on Defence) • “Ethnic Dominance” (Ethno-linquistic Group of Pop 45-90%) • “Political and Civil Rights” (Freedom House) • “Political Instability” • “Reoccurrence of Conflict” (in years)

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19. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies • Part II • Explaining past, current and future conflicts through their root reasons • 4th Example: Reasons for Conflicts • Smith, D.: Atlas of war and peace, 2003) • 4 reasons for war • “Poverty” • “Human Rights” • “Political System” • “Ethnic Groupings”

20. Part II - Case Study: Oil and Geopolitics in the Greater Middle East DirectorColonel, Lic.Pol.Sci Juha Pyykönen

21. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies CONSUMPTION TRENDSFrom coal to oil and towards hydrogen ? Natural gas Oil Coal Renewable energy sources (hydropower, wind etc.) Medieval 1900 2050-

22. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Energy resources as a source for a conflict 1 (4) • Most significant source for conflicts with military dimension • Rationale: Industrial countries heavily dependant on energy • to be continued for 50-70 years • One who controls oil and gas, rules energy-dependent states ! • Surplus oil regions today: all are ‘less developed’ • Greater Middle East, Central Asia, North Africa • Nigeria, Russia, Norway, Mexico, Venezuela • Underproduction regions today: all ‘most developed countries’ • EU, India, China, Japan, Australia, USA • Sub-Saharan Africa, most of Latin America • Most significant gas deposits located with oil !

23. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Energy resources as a source for a conflict 2 (4) • Most significant producers in Greater Middle East & Central Asia • Characteristics of local “players” • Saudi Arabia: poor governance, terrorism, pro-American, internal problems • Iraq: oil and gas, poor governance, fundamentalism, internal divisions, internal post-war conflict, domestic terror • Iran: oil and gas, poor governance, fundamentalism, WMD • Israel & Palestine: turmoil, pro-American and ally • Afghanistan: pipelines, post-war conflict, drug production • Georgia: pipelines, Russian and US interests • Central Asia: oil and gas, Chinese & Russian & American interests • Caucasian: oil and gas, pipelines, Russian influence, Nagorno-Karabah

24. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Energy resources as a source for a conflict 3 (4) • Why USA has to gain control over the region? • Need for energy, but preferably abroad thus saving domestic resources • Islamic self-esteem and attitudes towards West increasingly hostile • Biological fuels as a strategic resource only if no oil and gas available • Alternative regions aren’t less challenging? • Venezuela: internal turmoil, risk of taxing • Nigeria: corruption, south-north conflict ongoing, bad governance • Libya: previously “ an evil”, now rehabilitated • Russia: dependency on a former enemy not acceptable • North Sea: modest resources, used by allies in Europe • Greater Middle East & Central Asia retain their significance for next few decades for all major states except Russia

25. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Time-critical conclusions to an “eternal issue” • Short-term development • Key: Iraqi oil production, Iranian policies, internal situation in Saudi Arabia • USA continues to maintain control (through military means, if necessary) • EU to get used to US policy, or to become dependent on Russia’s energy • Long-term development • China must find optional energy resources (Russia, Iran, Sudan) • India should get her resources elsewhere (Iran) • Russia will invest heavily on energy production to gain influence, currency • Middle East producers looking for alternative to challenge US hegemony • Finally, oil and gas maintain their status as the strategic resource! • World revolves around oil for decades – crises appear in the future, too • However, enough oil and gas for next 50+ years.

26. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies CONCLUSION • A New Type of Conflict is A Reality: • Less military by nature • More Political, Economic, Societal, Environmental • Tools for Conflict/Crisis/War Management developed accordingly. • Enhanced cooperation is a necessity.

27. National Defence College Department of Strategic and Defence Studies QUESTIONS - COMMENTS - VIEWS DirectorLieutenant Colonel, Lic.Pol.Sci Juha Pyykönen