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The Cocoa Crisis: Are We Running Out?

Explore the challenges and potential shortages in the cocoa industry, as demand continues to rise. Discover the impact on cocoa production, market trends, and the need for sustainable solutions to ensure a steady supply for future generations.

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The Cocoa Crisis: Are We Running Out?

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  1. Are We Running Out of Cocoa?Chocoa, Amsterdam March 06,2015Pamela Thornton

  2. SLIDE FROM 2010 • Where is the cocoa required to satisfy this future demand going to come from? • By 2020 we are going to need at least 4.5 mil tons pa to satisfy demand • Equates to 900 kmt pa more than we produced in 2009/10 or 700 kmt more than projections for 2010/11

  3. Demand Trends – Strong Historical Link to GDP Source: Armajaro

  4. Annual Growth in Grind per annum Source: Armajaro

  5. Production Trends by Continent = Forecast

  6. Production Trends – Ghana/Côte d'Ivoire Dotted Line = Since last conference Market fears CI was in a structural downtrend = forecast Structural downtrend or temporary blip? Source: Armajaro

  7. Farmgate Prices in US$

  8. Production Trends – 2nd Tier Origins = forecast

  9. S&D Potential Picture Source: Armajaro Data

  10. Ghana Rural : Urban Migration Rapid change since 2006 Source: IMF

  11. SLIDE FROM 2010 • Cocoa is a unique product • It requires harvesting by hand • Requires multi-stage post-harvest handling • Approx 25000 pods have to be cut open to produce 1 metric ton of beans • We have been spoiled as consumers benefitting from the efforts of desperately poor people who lack alternatives • This pool of African farmers is not enough to meet the needs of world demand going forward

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