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DELPHI ON TRANSPORT AND CO 2 EMISSIONS Finnish scenarios up to 2050

DELPHI ON TRANSPORT AND CO 2 EMISSIONS Finnish scenarios up to 2050. Vilja Varho, Petri Tapio, Laura Joki Finland Futures Research Centre vilja.varho@utu.fi / ffrc.utu.fi / www.fidea.fi. CO 2 emissions in the EU. CAST - project.

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DELPHI ON TRANSPORT AND CO 2 EMISSIONS Finnish scenarios up to 2050

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  1. DELPHI ON TRANSPORT AND CO2 EMISSIONSFinnish scenarios up to 2050 Vilja Varho, Petri Tapio, Laura Joki Finland FuturesResearch Centre vilja.varho@utu.fi / ffrc.utu.fi / www.fidea.fi

  2. CO2emissions in the EU Trends and Future of Sustainable Development

  3. CAST - project • Delphi study: 2 rounds, interviews & questionnaires(2009-2010) • DisaggregativePolicy Delphi: search for crystallisedviews, notconsensus Trends and Future of Sustainable Development

  4. mATERIAL • 34 participants: 32 interviews, 24 questionnairesfromround 2 • Qualitativecontentanalysis of interviews • Eachrespondentprovided a probable and a prefarable image of future: 48 numericaldescriptions of future (years 2020, 2030, 2050) • Questionnairedivided into themes, separateclusteranalyses for eachtheme (pass. transport, freight, policies, vehicles, otherdrivers) Trends and Future of Sustainable Development

  5. 5 Clusters for theme ”policies” Trends and Future of Sustainable Development

  6. Trends and Future of Sustainable Development

  7. Example – pass. Transport 2050 Trends and Future of Sustainable Development

  8. Example – pass. Transport 2050 Trends and Future of Sustainable Development

  9. Freight transport 2050 Trends and Future of Sustainable Development

  10. Freight transport 2050 Trends and Future of Sustainable Development

  11. CO2emissionsfrompass.cars Trends and Future of Sustainable Development

  12. Percentage of biofuels Trends and Future of Sustainable Development

  13. Summarisingresults • Fewbelieve in reachingenv. targets • Bothtechnological and social changesconsiderednecessary to reachsustainability • Cartrips to countryside consideredparticularlydifficult to move to public transport • Restriction of movementnotenvisioned • Freight to declineornot, butmove to rails Trends and Future of Sustainable Development

  14. Thank you! vilja.varho@utu.fi, petri.tapio@utu.fi http://ffrc.utu.fi/ www.fidea.fi Trends and Future of Sustainable Development

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