Hydro- socio- meteoro- logy: Essential elements for flash flood mitigation and research

1. Hydro- socio- meteoro- logy: Essential elements for flash flood mitigation and research Dr. Eve Gruntfest International Flash Flood Laboratory 11th Annual Lovell Distinguished Lecture October 19, 2009 San Marcos, TX

2. Social scientist in world of engineers and physical scientists • Geography professor at University of Colorado Colorado Springs for 27 years • Research on flash floods and warning systems Background - applied geographer International Flash Flood Laboratory

3. The Big Thompson Flood in Colorado 140 died July 31, 1976 • Who lived? • Who died? • Studied the behaviors that night • Career – “socio/hydro/ meteoro - logist” International Flash Flood Laboratory

4. Today's presentation – Four part mosaic International Flash Flood Laboratory Integrates academic, professional and governmental efforts to reduce the impacts of flash floods Jack Lee age 6-8 1st place 2009 International Flash Flood Laboratory

5. Four parts • Examples of hydro-socio-meteor-ology at work • Emphasis on social science and recent flash floods • Programs and People in Action: WAS * IS, SSWIM, Isabelle Ruin • Institutional collaborators from outside / inside Texas • Results from recent flash flood research: Warning Project, YouTube study • Necessity of hybrid approach • Looking ahead to our workshop and our work International Flash Flood Laboratory

6. water

7. Why WAS * IS? As an “add on social scientist” always a few people would say after a talk --- • “I want to do work that integrates meteorology and societal impacts BUT… • I don’t know how, and… • I don’t know anyone else who • does this kind of work” WAS*IS vision To change the weather enterprise by comprehensively and sustainably integrating social science into meteorological and hydrological research and practice International Flash Flood Laboratory

8. WAS*IS mission – building hydro-socio-metero logy capacity • Build an interdisciplinary community of practitioners, researchers and stakeholders — from the grassroots up — dedicated to the integration of meteorology and hydrology and social science • Provide opportunities to learn and examine ideas, methods, and examples related to integrated weather-society work- including flash floods • Tools – qualitative methods, surveys, interviews • Concepts – speaking the same language, problem definition • Topics – intros to social sciences, vulnerability and resilience, roles of technology, communication and use of weather information International Flash Flood Laboratory International Flash Flood Laboratory

9. Social Science Woven Into Meteorology (SSWIM) The National Weather Center – Norman, OK Funded by University of Oklahoma and NOAA www.sswim.org Collaborate with International Flash Flood Laboratory International Flash Flood Laboratory

10. SSWIM’sthree goals To weave social science into the activities of the National Weather Center and elsewhere – not an “add –on” 2. To earn a reputation as a center of social science research and practice in weather and climate work 3. To revolutionize the research to operations equation – so it’s no longer top-down and all partners play equal roles – decision-makers, forecasters, product designers and researchers International Flash Flood Laboratory

11. SSWIM’s objectives are innovative research and capacity building • … by increasing the appreciation of the value of qualitative as well as quantitative approaches including archival, ethnographic, and participatory methods • … through partnerships with public, private, and academic sectors, including students, practitioners, and policymakers across the spectrum of stakeholders International Flash Flood Laboratory

12. Social scientists use methods that are rigorous quantitative and qualitative ways to collect data and are appropriate to the discipline, research questions and study populations • Interviews – protocols & questionnaires • Structured • Semi-structured • Open interviews - i.e. stories • Surveys – systematically administered to a defined sample • Direct observations – researcher is embedded with group • Participatory activities – researcher participates with group • Focus groups – guided activities in group • Text analysis – breakdown of verbal or written texts • Others… International Flash Flood Laboratory

13. International Flash Flood Laboratory collaborators Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement Grenoble, France HYMeX Hydrologic cycle in Mediterranean Experiment High impact weather events and relation to climate change impacts in the Mediterranean region European and US project International Flash Flood Laboratory

14. International Flash Flood Laboratory collaborators - Director Konstantine P. Georgakakos KGeorgakakos@hrc-lab.org University of California San Diego Hydrologic Research Center working with the World Meteorological Organization http://www.hrc-lab.org/index.php Real-Time Data for Central America Flash Flood Threat Index International Flash Flood Laboratory

15. International Flash Flood Laboratory collaborators • SHAVE Project – (Severe Hail Verification Experiment) National Severe Storms Laboratory – bringing in social science – social and physical verification • National Weather Service Integrated Warning Team gatherings – Kansas City, Omaha 2009 • Meteorologists • News Media • Hydrologists • Emergency Managers • Social Scientists International Flash Flood Laboratory

16. International Flash Flood Laboratory collaborators International Hydrometeorology Analysis and Forecasting Course 7-27 June 2008 Boulder, CO 21 days *****2 hours social science***** National Weather Service (international activities office) World Meteorological Organization NOAA FLASH FLOOD WORKSHOP 2006 March 13-17 San José, Costa Rica http://www.nws.noaa.gov/iao/iao_FFW.php Presentations on line International Flash Flood Laboratory

17. US flash flood challengesPost-wildfire flash floods – CaliforniaCollaborations between local governments, US Geological Survey, National Weather Service Debris flow warnings F. Orr LA Times 9/16 R.Gauthier LA Times R. Gauthier 9/14 International Flash Flood Laboratory

18. Warnings – Do these maps help? International Flash Flood Laboratory

19. Mapped low water crossings in Austin, TXwww.ci.austin.tx.us/disasterready/lowwater.htm (are these making a difference?) International Flash Flood Laboratory

20. Extreme Atlanta flooding September 24-26, 2009 >15 inches of rain in some places, problems with extreme rainfall, creeks cresting feet above historical record highs 10 deathsCalls to action - were they severe enough? Do they matter? International Flash Flood Laboratory

21. How do we address nuisance events vs catastrophic events? Height of the 1997 Fort Collins, CO flash flood International Flash Flood Laboratory

22. WAS* ISer example - Daniel Nietfeld – National Weather Service Scientific Operations officer - Omaha Redefining job to include social and physical sciences Change questions asked • Who will be impacted? • Are people awake/sleeping/ driving/coaching? • What has happened up to this point? • Have there already been fatalities? • What are the TV stations saying? • Have earlier storms been “missed”? Always brings stakeholders to meetings & attends THEIR meetings – school superintendents, highway patrol, hospital administrators International Flash Flood Laboratory

23. Extreme speed of watershed responses Extremely short lead-time for warnings WAS * IS er Dr. Isabelle Ruin– New time/space analysis hydro-socio-meteoro-logy International Flash Flood Laboratory

24. Key research questions and tasks • What social and natural factors account for spatio-temporal distribution and severity of storm dynamics, catchment size and land use? • Determine more effective ways to collect incident data during flash floods • Understand human risk perception and human behavior before, during, and after flash flood events • Create and use innovative models to further understand the hydro-meteorological circumstances behind flash floods • Determine forms of communication most effective in informing people about the imminent danger of flash floods • Integrate the physical and social sciences using GIS International Flash Flood Laboratory

25. A Case Study of the March 2008 Flash Floods in Southwestern Missouri Daniel Pollak and Isabelle Ruin Summer 2009 Source of Photo: http://press.weather.com/content/ss220-erin-midwest_flood-mike_rescue.jpg

26. Data and methods for Missouri study • Data Used • Rainfall • Stage IV Radar-derived • Hydrology • Catchments and Streams • Stream Gauges • Flood Impacts • NWS Flood Reports • Media • Low Water Crossings • Auxiliary Spatial Data • Political boundaries • Cities, Urban areas, • Elevation • Roads • Spatial and Temporal Analysis • Geographic Information Systems (GIS)  A computer-based system for management, mapping, analysis, and visualization of geo-referenced data • Integration of physical and social data from diverse sources • Qualitative Analysis • Expert Interviews • Statistical Analysis • How much rain International Flash Flood Laboratory

27. Database development Flood report data in Missouri • Quality of flood reports are inconsistent; variety of sources • Many of the floods reports had missing data • Many reports were thus deemed vague. • Many of the locations on the map were not defined correctly • Points had to be manually corrected “Locations” of all 135 flood reports

28. New collaboration • Mapping and observing driver • behavior at low water crossings in • Missouri • Cameras • Car counting Losing job = known risk Driving through flood = unknown risk Warnings are received and believed – but people think they HAVE to GO International Flash Flood Laboratory

29. Learn from post-event investigations DELUGE Organize systematic and standardized data collection Disasters Evolving Lessons Using Global Experience • Focus on post-event field studies for floods to maximize interactions between social scientists, hydrologists and meteorologists • New guidelines on post-event investigations for use by integrated teams of physical scientists, social scientists, and practitioners FIELD Hydro-socio-meteoro-logists needed • Build a common culture and common research questions • Foster international and interdisciplinary collaborations International Flash Flood Laboratory

30. International Flash Flood Laboratory

31. 2007 was Texas’ deadliest year Roy Sedwick Certified floodplain manager, Lower Colorado River Authority Sr. Floodplain Coordinator HYDRO-SOCIO-METERO-LOGIST • Flood and High-Flow deaths • 80% occurred in daylight • 90% swimming, boating, or • walking in high flows People underestimate the power of moving water & overestimate the ability to survive • Flash flood deaths • 80% in the dark • 90% under flash flood • watch/warning People underestimate how fast a flash flood develops and overestimate ability to recognize in time to react International Flash Flood Laboratory

32. 2007 flood-related drownings by type of event, Texas (from Sedwick) International Flash Flood Laboratory

33. Statistics – thanks to hard work (no easy database) -- 41% female, 59% male Age range: 2 – 85 years International Flash Flood Laboratory

34. Flood-related drownings by circumstances Texas (2007) (Sedwick) International Flash Flood Laboratory

35. Circumstances of vehicle – related drownings by time of incident most people don't die – w h y? don't focus only on the dead International Flash Flood Laboratory

36. Texas flood activities - Specific tasks • Add flood safety information to Texas Driver’s Handbook and add flood safety questions on exam • Add flood safety to driver’s education school programs and defensive driving • Require flood safety training for school bus drivers • Work with Texas Department of Transportation to activate digital highway signs on all interstate highways • Develop Turn Around Don’t Drown public service announcements and video • ASSESS baseline awareness and EVALUATE effectiveness of public awareness campaigns – target particular populations – include in budget ! International Flash Flood Laboratory

37. From CoCoRahs 10/14/09 cocorahs.blogspot.com growing real-time grass roots national rainfall network International Flash Flood Laboratory

38. Challenge – Holding car companies accountable of confronting ads from car companies Ad says: Warning: use the cup holders at your own risk How to convince people they are better Wet than Dead? International Flash Flood Laboratory

39. Before our Warning Project funded by the National Science Foundation the last major research on warnings was done in the 1970s What about cell phones, Internet, private and public sources of information? How are diverse urban populations interpreting warnings? International Flash Flood Laboratory

40. Our 2003-2008 National Science Foundation project aimed to • Evaluate impacts of • Demographic change • New and different sources of information • Test conventional wisdom about • False alarms/ close calls International Flash Flood Laboratory

41. What we know about warnings – Public response components • Hear/receive • Understand • Believe • Personalize • Decide to act • Respond The warning process is complex International Flash Flood Laboratory

42. Warning project methodology Mail survey 6000 surveys sent to residents in or near the floodplain 1017 surveys returned • Survey Development • 1 year • Input from officials and hazards researchers • Survey format • Likert scale and true/false • Demographic questions • Experience with flash floods and trauma • Surveys in English & Spanish to selected respondents • Survey is available – for follow up studies International Flash Flood Laboratory

43. Where do people get their weather information? • What is the best way for officials to warn you about a flash flood? International Flash Flood Laboratory

44. All sources of weather information used n=935 International Flash Flood Laboratory

45. The best way for officials to warn you about a flash flood? N=1020 International Flash Flood Laboratory

46. I take flash flood warnings seriously 92% 8% n=1017 International Flash Flood Laboratory

47. I would drive through an intersection with six inches of water running across it 63% say they would NOT DRIVE through it Is this good or bad news? International Flash Flood Laboratory

48. Realizing it’s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls N= 1047 International Flash Flood Laboratory

49. Officials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash flooding N = 1031 International Flash Flood Laboratory

50. Warning project findings • Weather information requirements of each user community are highly specialized -- there is no ONE PUBLIC • Different languages, capabilities, economic status • The weather research community has not focused on the individual needs of specific user communities • There is no ideal lead time • RECOGNITION THAT • STUDIES OF BEHAVIOR • MAY TELL US MORE THAN • RESEARCH ON PERCEPTIONS International Flash Flood Laboratory