Graduate labour market – the basics

1. Graduate labour market – the basics Dr Charlie Ball Head of HE Intelligence Graduate Prospects

2. There are a lot of myths around about university and the graduate jobs market

3. “Everyone has a degree nowadays”

4. “Everyone has a degree nowadays” • 39.2% of the adult population (16-64) of the UK had a degree at the end of 2018, up from 38% in 2017. • 44.4% of the UK workforce has a degree or equivalent qualification, up from 43.4% in 2017. • Less than half of students currently aged 14-18 will ever go to university, and it’s unlikely we’ll ever see a situation where half even of a given age group goes to university.

5. “There aren’t any jobs for graduates”

6. “There aren’t any jobs for graduates” • 136,000 UK graduates from 2017 were known to be in professional level jobs six months after graduating (73.9% of graduates) • Annual Population Survey data showed that at the end of 2018, there were 14.8m people working in professional level jobs in the UK • Or 46.1% of the workforce • APS data also shows that the UK added 353,500 new professional level jobs in 2018

7. “If I study <subject> then that is what I will have to do as a career” AND “If I don’t study a vocational subject, I won’t get a job”

8. The Subject Question • The UK has a particularly flexible skilled jobs market • The majority of jobs for graduates do not specify a degree discipline and you can get them with any subject, from fine art to physics • Studying eg engineering, does not mean you have to be an engineer or that you can’t get a job doing anything else (although most engineering graduates do become engineers) • Degrees are designed to teach a wide range of skills as well as subject knowledge and employers understand that

9. “Graduates only work for big business”

10. Graduates only work for big business or on large training schemes • Last year, 30% of graduates went to work for companies with fewer than 250 employees (37% when hospitals are removed), and one in six were with companies with fewer than 50 employees. • SMEs especially important in the telecoms, arts, design, architecture, marketing/PR/advertising, sport/fitness, law, web design • SME graduate employment stronger in London and south of EnglandThe proportion entering SMEs does seem to be falling, though

11. “All the jobs are in London”

12. All the graduate jobs are in London • 14.7% of the UK population lives in London • 19.8% of UK graduates live in London • 22.4% of 2016 graduates started their career in London. Many of those jobs were confined to a relatively small area of London. • Starting salary for graduates in London was £24,991 compared to £22,399 for UK as a whole • Most people – and graduates – never work in London • However the graduate population does seem to be getting increasingly urban

13. And in the future….. From the Financial Times, September 17th 2018

15. 2017 graduates after six months Data comes from HESA Destination of Leavers of Higher Education 2016/17

16. What do graduates do? 329,325 first degrees awarded to UK domiciled graduates last year. Rise of 12,635 on 2016 – up about 4% The majority were working after six months – 74.3% Unemployment was at 5.1% - lowest rate since 1988/89. Another increase in graduates going into Masters study – 2,800 more graduates going into study

17. How were graduates working after six months?

18. Types of work of 2017 graduates after six months

19. Change over time

20. Where did 2017 graduates work? Westminster 6080 Birmingham 4670 Manchester 4420 City of London 4065 Greater London 3840 Leeds 3625 Camden 3490 Glasgow 3370 Surrey 3180 Hertfordshire 3090 Kent 3035 Hampshire 2725 Edinburgh 2530 Tower Hamlets 2470 Essex 2465 Lancashire 2455 Liverpool 2445 Bristol 2390 Belfast 2385 Southwark 2295 Oxfordshire 2145 Sheffield 2145 Cardiff 2115 Cambridgeshire 2045 Islington 1985 Newcastle 1945 Nottingham 1790 West Sussex 1675 Gloucestershire 1610 Leicester 1545

21. Graduate mobility • - 58% of graduates from 2017 went to work in the region they studied in • 69% went to work in the region they were originally domiciled • Only 18% of graduates went to work somewhere they were not already connected to • This pattern is long-standing and mobility may even be falling, although the figures are very similar to last year’s

22. Graduate migration patterns Loyals – domiciled and studied in same region and now work there as well. 45% of 2016/17 graduates Stayers – moved to another region to study and stayed there to work. 13% of 2016/17 graduates Returners – moved to another region to study and then returned home to work. 24% of 2016/17 graduates Incomers – work in a region they were neither domiciled nor studied in. 18% of 2016/17 graduates 43% of all Incomers work in London

23. Graduate migration groups

24. Scotland

25. Outcomes from 2016/17

26. Types of work in Scotland

27. Main professional level occupations in Scotland Nurses 1710 Primary and nursery teaching 620 Medical practitioners 610 Chartered and certified accountants 295 Programmers and software developers 275 Marketing associate professionals 200 Secondary teaching 195 Finance analysts and advisers 180 Welfare and housing 175 Social workers 170 Sports coaches, instructors 155 Civil engineers 145 Mechanical engineers 145 General and niche business profs 140 Dental practitioners 130 Pharmacists 130 HR and recruitment 120 General and niche engineering 115 Business sales executives 115 Retail managers 105 Youth and community workers 100

28. Where were the professional level jobs? Glasgow 2375 Edinburgh 1800 Aberdeen 685 Dundee 480 North Lanarkshire 460 Fife 415 South Lanarkshire 375 Renfrewshire 310 Highland 295 West Lothian 240 Perth and Kinross 215 Falkirk 215 Aberdeenshire 200 East Ayrshire 200 Stirling 195 Dumfries and Galloway 175 South Ayrshire 160 Inverclyde 105 Angus 95 Moray 95 North Ayrshire 95 West Dunbartonshire 90 Scottish Borders 85 East Dunbartonshire 85 East Lothian 75 Midlothian 70 East Renfrewshire 65 Argyll and Bute 55 Clackmannanshire 40 Western Isles 35 Shetland Islands 20 Orkney Islands 20

29. Professional employment in Scotland – industries

30. Professional employment in Scotland – major industries Hospital activities 2335 Primary education 580 Other human health activities 395 Government 380 Accounting, audit, tax 325 Engineering and consultancy 255 Social work 230 Computer programming 205 Banking 185 Other education n.e.c. 180 Tertiary education 175 General secondary education 140 Dental practice activities 120 Trusts, funds and other financial vehicles 110 Information technology consultancy activities 105 Support activities for petroleum and natural gas mining 100

31. Professional employment locally – employer size

32. Professional employment in Scotland – how did graduates find their job?

33. Subjects

34. 2016/17 graduates from Scottish institutions

35. Sciences

36. Engineering and building

37. Social sciences

38. Arts and humanities

39. Business and finance

40. Regional

41. Where were the professional level jobs (council level)? Glasgow 2375 Edinburgh 1800 Aberdeen 685 Dundee 480 North Lanarkshire 460 Fife 415 South Lanarkshire 375 Renfrewshire 310 Highland 295 West Lothian 240 Perth and Kinross 215 Falkirk 215 Aberdeenshire 200 East Ayrshire 200 Stirling 195 Dumfries and Galloway 175 South Ayrshire 160 Inverclyde 105 Angus 95 Moray 95 North Ayrshire 95 West Dunbartonshire 90 Scottish Borders 85 East Dunbartonshire 85 East Lothian 75 Midlothian 70 East Renfrewshire 65 Argyll and Bute 55 Clackmannanshire 40 Western Isles 35 Shetland Islands 20 Orkney Islands 20

42. Professional employment in key Scottish council regions

43. A regional approach

44. 10 regions Plus Glasgow (2905) and Edinburgh (1885)

45. 10 regions • Pros • – provides a regional framework that maps to existing data • Allows differentiation between experiences of different institutions in context • Much more nuanced view of the Scottish labour market, particularly outside major cities • Allows modelling of graduate flows • Nearly all institutions can be represented • Cons • Cumbersome to analyse as does not map directly to existing structure • One region (South) has little HE provision, is small, fits poorly with others • One region (Ayrshire and Clyde Valley) has been created by merging two smaller regions to ensure UWS is properly examined • Fife and Lothian has HE (St Andrews) but institution v atypical

46. What do graduates do regionally?

47. What do graduates do regionally?

48. Graduate migration patterns Loyals – domiciled and studied in same region and now work there as well. 27% of 2016/17 graduates in Scotland Stayers – moved to another region to study and stayed there to work. 24% of 2016/17 graduates Returners – moved to another region to study and then returned home to work. 28% of 2016/17 graduates Incomers – work in a region they were neither domiciled nor studied in. 22% of 2016/17 graduates 50% of all Incomers work in Glasgow or Edinburgh

49. Graduate migration patterns

50. Occupational shortages