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Role of Gas in the Energy Mix

Role of Gas in the Energy Mix. Dr Philippe A. Tanguy Total. Global energy demand . GDP. Energy demand. Average growth per year. 1.1%. Billion. Mboe/d. Trillion $ 2010. 10. 200 . 350. 0.9%. 1.8%. 3.7% . 1.3%. 8. 150 . 250. 1.7%. 6. 3.4% . 2.5%. 100 . 1.1%. 150.

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Role of Gas in the Energy Mix

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  1. Role of Gas in the Energy Mix Dr Philippe A. TanguyTotal

  2. Global energy demand GDP Energy demand Average growth per year 1.1% Billion Mboe/d Trillion $ 2010 10 200 350 0.9% 1.8% 3.7% 1.3% 8 150 250 1.7% 6 3.4% 2.5% 100 1.1% 150 5.1% 4 1.6% 50 5.0% 0.9% 2 0.2% 2.1% 50 2.2% 0.4% 0.2% 1990 2010 2030(e) 1990 2010 2030(e) 1990 2010 2030(e) Sources: Total, UN, IMF - last update February 2012 Population

  3. EVOLUTION OF ENERGY MIX Total estimations Gas to become the second largest energy source by 2030

  4. Very significant resources Oil resources Natural gas resources ~3000 bboe ~3000 bboe(16.000 Tcf) 100 yr Non conventional resources Extra-heavy oils New discoveries and enhanced oil recovery Known resources 145 yr 70 yr 80 yr 50 yr 55 yrs production at present rates 33 yrs production at present rates Already producted Total estimations • Conventional gas mainly in Russia, Iran and Qatar • Shale gas development in the US • Transport and liquefaction constraints to development of isolated gas resources • Conventional oil mainly in the Middle East • Extra-heavy oil mainly in Canada and Venezuela

  5. energy CONSUMPTION TRENDS Sources: IEA

  6. 2010-2020 EVOLUTION OF Gas MARKET Total estimations

  7. 2010-2020 EUROPEAN Gas Demand Total estimations Domestic supply Pipeline imports Existing LNG contracts

  8. Very large non conventional gas resources POTENTIAL Billions boe Non conventionalgasresources Europe Latin America CEI Africa Middle East NorthAmerica Asia Potential constraints : geological structures, production costs, environment, logistics Sources: Total, IEA, CERA

  9. Unconventional Gas A REAL RESOURCE IN THE FUTURE EUROPEAN ENERGY LANDSCAPE? Dr Philippe A. TanguyTotal

  10. RESOURCE TYPOLOGY Sources: IFPEN

  11. COAL BED METHANE CBM production (Shell Document)

  12. SHALE GAS PRODUCTION 1,000+ m horizontal Water fracs with sand 5-20 fracs per well 10-20 km3 water/well 30-70% water flowback Sources: MIT

  13. IMPACT MANAGEMENT Sources: MIT

  14. IMPLEMENTING BEST PRACTICES IEA 2011

  15. SHALE GAS RESOURCE WORLDWIDE Sources: MIT

  16. PRODUCTION OF GAS IN 2035 Sources: IEA

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