Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada

1. Energy and Environment (E2G) Team GERAD Research Center Montreal, QC, Canada Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada International Energy Workshop, June 21st, 2012

2. Context and objectives • Contribution of the transportation sector to final energy consumption and CO2 emissions is more important than the world average. • Geographic considerations are responsible for these trends. • Different options are considered • Measures to reduce transportation demand • Policies to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and/or to promote the deployment of clean vehicles • The aim of this paper is to compare effects of climate and energy policies on the transportation sector, more specifically: • To analyze the impacts of GHG reduction targets on the deployment of clean vehicles; • To assess the consequences of imposing clean vehicle penetration targets on fossil fuel consumption, electricity generation and GHG emissions.

3. The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) • Combine advanced versions of MARKAL and EFOM models • Used by 80 institutions in nearly 70 countries (ETSAP, IEA) • Linear programming bottom-up energy models • Integrated modeling of the entire energy system • GHG emissions from fuel combustion and processes • Prospective analysis on a long term horizon (50-100 yrs) • Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units • Price-elasticities for end-use demands • Partial and dynamic equilibrium on perfect energy markets • Main output: Optimal technology selection • Obj-function: Minimizing the net total cost of the energy system • Environmental constraints (GHG emission limits)

4. TIMES-Canada Regions: 13 provinces and territories Base year: 2007 Horizon: 2050 (energy) Horizon: 2100 (climate) • Time slices • - 4 seasons: Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter • 3 day periods: Day, Night, Peak

5. Primary Energy End-Use Technologies Production / Conversion Technologies Demand for Energy Service Primary Energy Final Energy Useful Energy Fossil Fuel Reserves Conventional & Oil sands Crude oil, Gas, Coal Extraction Oil, Gas, Coal IND Production Furnaces, Boilers Machinery IND (8) - Tons Iron & Steel, Cement Chemicals, Copper Refineries CCS Coke Plants Biomass Potentials Crops: Starch, Oilseeds Greasy residues Lignocellulosic sources Dedicated crops Waste, Biogas, Algae COM (7) - PJ/m2 Heating, Cooling Lighting, Appliances COM Services Furnaces, AC, Fluorescents, Etc. Biomass Plants Solid: pellet, wood Liquid: biofuels Gaseous: biogas DM 2050 Oil prices (3) Elasticities RSD Dwellings Heat Pumps, Lamps Freezers, Ranges RSD (20) - PJ/unit Heating, Cooling Lighting, Appliances International Imports Crude oil, RPP, Biomass Gas, Coal, H2 DM 2100 Growth (2) Elasticities Hydrogen Plants TRA Vehicles Cars, trucks, buses Trains, Ships, Planes -Trucks TRA (16) - Pkm/Tkm Road: short/long dist. Rail, Marine, Air • Domestic Trades • Pipelines • Transmission Uranium & Lithium Reserves AGR Process AGR (1) - PJ CCS Power & Heat Cogeneration Plants Thermal, Nuclear Renewables, Biomass Renewable Potentials Hydro, Wave, Tidal Wind, Solar, Geo Ocean Thermal & Salinity International Exports Crude oil, RPP, Biomass Gas, Coal, H2, LNG LNG Imports LNG Regasification LNG Liquefaction Scenarios Energy policies Climate policies Carbon sequestration EOR, Aquifers, Afforestation GHG Emissions Combustion, Process CAC Emissions

6. Driver growth projections, 2007-2050

7. Final energy consumption, 2007-2050 (PJ)

8. Aviation gas Natural gas Bio-dimetyl Biosdiesel Electricity Methanol H2-liquid H fuel oil Gasoline Jet fuels Ethanol H2-gas Diesel NGLs • TRPSA (M Pkms - Long dist.) TRPSB (M Pkms - Short dist.) Passenger, Small cars • TRPLA (M Pkms - Long dist.)TRPLB (M Pkms - Short dist) Passenger, Large cars Passenger, Light trucks • TRPT (M Pkms) Freight, Light trucks • TRFT (M Tkms) • Freight, Medium trucks • TRFM (M Tkms) • Freight, Heavy trucks • TRFH (M Tkms) Road Passenger, Urban buses • TRPU (M Pkms) Passenger, Intercity buses • TRPI (M Pkms) Passenger, School buses • TRPC (M Pkms) Passenger, Motos • TRPM (M Pkms) Passenger, Off road • TRPO (M Pkms) Passenger, Trains • TTPA (M Pkms) Rail • Freight, Trains • TTFR (M Tkms) Passenger, Airplanes • TAPA (PJ) Air • Freight, Airplanes • TAFR (PJ) Marine All, Ships • TMAL (PJ)

9. Bio-dimetyl Natural gas Etectricity Biodiesel Methanol H2-liquid Gasoline Ethanol H2-gas Diesel NGLs Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Gasoline,CAFE Std. • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Gasoline, CAFE 3.5 MPG. • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Gasoline, CAFE 7.0 MPG. Fossil fuels • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Diesel, CAFE Std. • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Diesel, CAFE 3.5 MPG. • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Diesel, CAFE 7.0 MPG. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Natural gas liquids, Std. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Natural gas, Std. • Passenger, Small cars, HEV, Gasoline Hybrid, Std. • TRPSA • TRPSB Passenger, Small cars, HEV, Diesel Hybrid, Std. • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Ethanol, Std. Biofuels • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Ethanol 10%. • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Ethanol 18%. • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Biodiesel, Std. • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Methanol, Std. • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Bio Dimethyleter, Std. Hydrogen • Passenger, Small cars, Fuel Cell, H2 Gas. • Passenger, Small cars, Fuel Cell, H2 Liquid. • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, H2 Gas. • Passenger, Small cars, ICE, H2 Liquid.

10. Electricity Gasoline Diesel • Passenger, Small cars, BEV70, Lead Acid • Passenger, Small cars, BEV70, Li-Ion Electric • Passenger, Small cars, BEV70, NiMH • Passenger, Small cars, BEV150, Li-Ion Electricityfrom the grid • Passenger, Small cars, BEV200, Li-Ion • Passenger, Small cars, BEV300, Li-Ion TELCBAT1, Battery (Storage) Plug-in hybrid Gasoline • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, NiMH • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, Li-Ion • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, NiMH • TRPSA • TRPSB • Charging station, Residential, Level 1.2 • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, Li-Ion • Charging station, Residential, Level 1.6 • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV100, Li-Ion • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV200, Li-Ion • Charging station, Residential, Level 6.5 Plug-in hybrid Diesel • Charging station, Commercial, Level 6.5 • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, NiMH • Charging station, Commercial, Level 30 • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, Li-Ion • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, NiMH • Charging station, Commercial, Level 60 • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, Li-Ion • Charging station, Public, Level 6.5 • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV100, Li-Ion • Charging station, Public, Level 30 • Passenger, Small cars, PHEV200, Li-Ion • Charging station, Public, Level 60

11. Level and availability of charging stations Level 1 Level 3 – fast charger Level 2 Level 1.1 1.2 KW 50 min/kWh Level 1.2 1.6 KW 40 min/kWh Level 3.1 30 KW 2.5 min/kWh Level 3.2 60 KW 1 min/kWh Level 2 6.5 KW 10 min/kWh

12. Example: small passenger cars • Small BEV – 150 (Lithium-Ion) • Capital costs • 2012: 36,558 $ • 2050: 12,328 $ • Batterycapacity: • 2012: 25 kWh • 2050: 13 kWh • Example: Mitsubishi i-Miev Range: 150 km • Battery: 16 kWh • Capital cost: 33,000$

13. Example: small passenger cars (18)

14. Scenarios • BAU: End-use demands projected to the 2020 horizon using socio-economic drivers of the National Energy Board and then extended to 2050 using a regression approach. • CLIM: GHG reduction commitments that have been taken by provincial governments (with the federal target for the territories. • EVP: Electric vehicles penetration targets for road transportation

15. End-use demand projections, 2007-2050

16. Final energy consumption, 2007-2050 (PJ)

17. GHG emissions, 2007-2050 (Mt CO2-eq)

18. Penetration of vehicles in the climate policy case, 2007-2050

19. Penetration of passenger vehicles in all cases, 2007-2050

20. Penetration of passenger vehicles in the climate policy case, 2007-2050

21. Charging stations and batteries, 2050

22. Investment in new capacity, 2050 (GW)

23. Evolution of costs ($/ kWh) and efficiency (2008=100) for lithium-ion batteries

24. Evolution of costs ($/ kWh) for a small all-electric car with a 150 km capacity

25. Final energy consumption in the transportation sector, 2007-2050 (PJ)

26. Conclusion • Results show that a climate policy would be required to significantly reduce global GHG emissions. • In this context, the use of biofuels can be seen as a transition phase before plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles become competitive (from 2030). • The transportation sector contributes significantly to the GHG reduction effort imposed by the climate policy. • On the long term, alternative vehicles are also part of an optimal solution from an energy security point of view to meet a large part of the additional demand for passenger and freight transportation while limiting petroleum product imports.

27. Thank you from the E2G team Project leaders • Jean-Philippe Waaub • Olivier Bahn • Richard Loulou Project Coordination • Kathleen Vaillancourt Research consultants • AmitKanudia (KanORS-EMR) • Maryse Labriet (ENERIS) Postdoc fellow Camille Fertel (GCPDRF) PhD student Yuri Alcocer Master students Erik Frenette HichemGarbouj Mathilde Marcy Yosra Neji Noushin Reisi Research project funded by the NSERC of Canada Research project funded by the MDEIE of Quebec (link with REACCESS 7th FP-EU) Partners: Resources Natural Canada, Environment Canada, Hydro-Quebec GCPDRF: Government of Canada Post-Doctoral Research Fellowships