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The Third Wave. Paul Bacon SILS, Waseda University. Three Waves of Democracy. In his book The Third Wave , Samuel Huntington argues that there have been three waves of democratization in modern history. Samuel P. Huntington. Huntington’s Definition of Democracy.
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The Third Wave Paul Bacon SILS, Waseda University
Three Waves of Democracy • In his book The Third Wave, Samuel Huntington argues that there have been three waves of democratization in modern history. Samuel P. Huntington
Huntington’s Definition of Democracy • Huntington offers two definitions of democracy that apply to different periods of time. • Definition 1 • -Applies to 19th Century. • 50% of adult males can vote. • There is an executive that either maintains majority support in an elected parliament, or is chosen in periodic popular elections.
Huntington’s Definition of Democracy • Definition 2 • - Applies to 20th Century. • Virtually all adults can vote. • Leaders are selected through fair, honest and periodic elections.
The First Wave: Why? • Occurred mostly in Northern Europe and white settler countries. The causes are: • Economic Factors: • First countries to experience economic development, industrialization and urbanization. • Emergence of middle class. • Decrease in economic inequality.
The First Wave: Why? • Historical events and intellectual developments: • French Revolution. • American Revolution. • John Locke. • Montesquieu. • John Stuart Mill.
The First Wave: Why? • Religious Factors • Over 75% of the countries that democratized in the first wave had majority Protestant populations. • World War One • Democratic countries defeated two large authoritarian empires, the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires. • This produced snowballing, or a demonstration effect, that encouraged the development of democracy.
The Second Wave: Why? • The second wave is largely related to WW2. • Imposition of Democracy. • Allied powers imposed democracy on certain defeated countries, such as Japan and Germany. • Snowballing (demonstration) effect. • Some countries independently chose to be democratic.
The Second Wave: Why? • Decolonization. • Countries that had a number of colonies (e.g. Britain, France, Holland and Portugal) were severely weakened after WW2. • The United States pressured these countries to give up their colonies. • Many former colonies became independent and democratic.
The Third Wave: Why? • Some 30 countries became democratic. • Legitimacy. • Democratic ideas became widely accepted. • Authoritarian regimes could not solve economic problems as efficiently as democratic countries. • Economic Growth. • Higher standards of living and education contributed to the expansion of the urban middle class.
The Third Wave: Why? • Change in the Catholic church. • The Catholic church, which used to be a supporter of authoritarian regimes, changed its doctrine and practice and supported democracy. • Foreign Policy. • Expansion of the EU. • Promotion of democracy and human rights by the United States. • Fall of the Soviet Union.
The Third Wave: Why? • Snowball (or demonstration effect). • Early third wave transitions received great media attention, which later stimulated transitions in other countries.
Democratic Transition • Democratic transition requires three components. • The end of an authoritarian regime. • The installation of a new democratic regime (through elections). • The consolidation of this democratic regime.
Democratic Transition A/a-d-D A/a-d-D A = stable, long-lasting authoritarian regime. D = stable, long-lasting democratic regime. a = unstable, short-lived authoritarian regime. d = unstable, short-lived democratic regime. Stable Authoritarianism Unstable Democracy Stable Democracy Unstable Authoritarianism Time
Processes of Democratization • Huntington identifies three different types of democratization process. • Democratic transformation. • takes place when powerholders take the lead in bringing about democracy. • Democratic replacement. • takes place when opposition groups take the lead in bringing about democracy. Old authoritarian regime is overthrown. • Democratic transplacement. • takes place when there is joint action by the government and opposition groups to promote democratization.
Prospects for Democratic Consolidation • The following conditions facilitate democratic consolidation. • Previous experience of democracy. • Relatively high GNP per capita. • Favorable external environment. • Democratic transition at an earlier, rather than later, stage in the third wave. • Democratization via transplacement, rather than transformation or replacement. • The following slides discuss each of these conditions more in detail.
1. Previous Democratic Experience • Huntington argues that: • Some experience of democracy is better than none. • Longer experience of democracy is better than shorter experience. • The more recent the democratic experience, the better.
2. Level of Economic Development • The higher level of economic development, the greater the likelihood of stable democracy. • Economically developed countries have: • More industrialized economies. • More modern economies. • More complex societies. • Better educated populations. • These factors all help consolidate democracy.
3. The External Environment • A foreign country can have a positive influence on democratic consolidation, if the relevant foreign government: • is itself democratic. • promotes democracy in other countries. • has close relations with the third wave country in question. • is able to exercise influence in the third wave country in question.
4. The Timing of the Democratic Transition • Early = Indigenous • Earlier democratizations are more likely to be the result of indigenous causes, rather than a snowball effect. • Indigenous = Consolidation • Democratic transitions caused by indigenous factors are more likely to lead to consolidated democracies. • Therefore, Early = Consolidation • The earlier a country democratizes within the third wave, the more likely it is to become a consolidated democracy.
5. Process of Democratic Transition • Huntington identified three processes of democratic transition; transformation, replacement and transplacement. • Huntington argues: • There is more chance of a successful democratic consolidation if elites from the previous non-democratic regime are satisfied. • There is less chance of democratic consolidation if the transition involved violence. • If the above statements are true, it follows that transplacement is most likely to lead to consolidated democracy.
Type of Old Regime Transition Process One party Personal Military Racial Oligarchy Transplacement Poland Czechoslovakia Nicaragua Mongolia (Nepal) Uruguay Bolivia Honduras El Salvador Korea (South Africa) Transformation Hungary Bulgaria (Taiwan) (USSR) (Taiwan) Spain India Chile Turkey Brazil Peru Guatemala Ecuador Nigeria Pakistan Sudan Replacement East Germany Portugal The Philippines Romania Greece Argentina Chart: Transition Process and Democracy
Chart: Freedom Classification by Freedom House (2003) http://www.freedomhouse.org
Further Democratization? • Most currently authoritarian governments do not have any previous democratic experience. • Huntington is not sure whether the third wave will continue or not. • Huntington raises the possibility that some cultures may not be amenable to democracy. He suggests two versions of this “cultural obstacle” argument.
Cultural Obstacles to Democracy? • The two versions of the “cultural obstacle” argument. • Version 1 • Only Western cultures are amenable to democracy. Non-western countries are not. • Version 2 • Not all non-western cultures are amenable to democracy. But there are certain cultures which are resistant to democratic transition, such as Islamic and Confucian culture.
Democracy as Western Culture • There is evidence to suggest that the first argument is true. • Modern democracy originated in the West. • Since the early 19th century, most democratic countries have been western countries. • Outside of the North Atlantic, democratic transition has been most likely in; • Former British colonies. • Countries heavily influenced by the United States. • Former colonies of Spain and Portugal in Latin America.
Democracy as Western Culture • In 1973, at the lowest point in the second reverse wave, there were only 29 democracies. Among them: • 20 were west European or European settler countries or Latin American countries. • 8 were former British colonies. • Japan. • Of the 30 third wave countries, 23 were western countries, or countries where there had been substantial western influence.
End of Lecture. Thank you for your attention.
