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Objective Goodness-of-Fit Measures for Broadband Synthetic Seismograms

This study by Kim B. Olsen and John E. Mayhew presents a novel approach for evaluating the fit between broadband synthetic time histories and strong-motion data using various metrics such as cross-correlation, peak acceleration, velocity, and displacement. The authors propose a comprehensive goodness-of-fit scale ranging from 0 to 100 and discuss the application of different metrics in assessing the quality of synthetic seismograms. They introduce a user-defined weight system to prioritize certain metrics based on their importance in characterizing seismic waveforms. The study showcases the estimation of goodness-of-fit values for the 2008 Mw 5.4 Chino Hills earthquake, demonstrating a map-based comparison of ground motion parameters derived from observed data and synthetic simulations at multiple stations. The proposed methodology offers a robust framework for objectively evaluating the accuracy of synthetic seismic waveforms.

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Objective Goodness-of-Fit Measures for Broadband Synthetic Seismograms

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Need for an Objective Goodness-of-Fit Measure for: • Broadband synthetic time histories versus strong-motion data • Broadband synthetic time histories from different methodologies

  2. Kim B. Olsen and John E. Mayhew: Goodness-of-fit Criteria for Broadband Synthetic Seismograms, with Application to the 2008 Mw 5.4 Chino Hills, Califonia, Earthquake, Seismological Research Letters 80(6): 1002-1007

  3. GOF Approach: Combination of Different Metrics Time-domain Metrics: Cross-Correlation (Waveform Comparison) Peak Acceleration (PGA) Peak Velocity (PGV) Peak Displacement (PGD) Cumulative Energy Spectral Metrics: Smoothed Fourier Amplitude Amplitudes Average Response Spectra (0.1-10s) Spectral Accelerations at NGA Periods Duration at Selected Periods Inelastic/Elastic Ratios (I/E)

  4. The Goodness-of-fit Scale 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Try Again 1 2 3

  5. Visual Confirmation of GOF Values GOFPGV=82 GOFPGV=19 GOFFS=51 GOFFS=11 GOFRS=75 GOFRS=14

  6. Redundancy of Metrics Correlation Matrix (33 stations)

  7. Weights • User supplies a list of weights (wi) • Normalized weights are applied to each metric GOF value (m i) for the overall site and component GOF values

  8. Example of GOF Estimation for Mw 5.4 Chino Hills

  9. New: map-based GOF PGA IE 0.2-0.5s SA-0.2s IE 0.75-2.5s SA-2s IE 2-5s

  10. IE ratios derived from data (gray) and synthetics (black) for the 2008 Chino Hills earthquake. Dots are results from 33 stations, and the solid lines are the corresponding mean values.

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