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Review of Guidelines Worksheet Structure – Data Analysis

Review of Guidelines Worksheet Structure – Data Analysis. Definition of a Prison Sentence Has Changed. 1990. 1992. 1994. 1996. 1998. 2000. 2002. Abolition of parole. Prison - more than 6 mos. Jail - 6 mos. or less. Prison* - 1 yr. or more Jail* - 12 mos. or less.

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Review of Guidelines Worksheet Structure – Data Analysis

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  1. Review of Guidelines Worksheet Structure – Data Analysis

  2. Definition of a Prison Sentence Has Changed 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Abolition of parole Prison - more than 6 mos. Jail - 6 mos. or less Prison* - 1 yr. or more Jail* - 12 mos. or less Prison - 1 yr. or more Jail - 12 mos. or less Prison - more than 2 yrs. Jail - 2 yrs. or less Prison - 1 yr. or more Jail - less than 1 yr. Structure of current guidelines * policy of Virginia Department of Corrections

  3. Current Sentencing Guidelines Structure Conviction Section A: Incarceration > 6 months Yes/No Recommendation No Yes Section C: Sentence Length Recommendation - Incarceration > 6 months Section B: Probation or Incarceration up to 6 months Recommendation Probation Incarceration Up to 6 months

  4. Study Objectives • Staff is conducting exploratory analysis to examine: • the impact of the inconsistency between the structure of the guidelines and the definition of a prison sentence, • the differences in jail versus prison sanctioning decisions, • the impact of nonviolent risk assessment recommendations on sentencing decisions, and • the feasibility of simplifying the guidelines while maintaining statistical power of the sentencing models. This leads to a consideration of different worksheet structures.

  5. Exploration of Different Worksheet Structures • Study the possibility of revising worksheets to reflect current definition of a prison inmate: • Section A- In/Out (Incarceration 1 Year or More) • Section B- Prob. or Incarceration up to 12 Months • Section C- Sentence Length (1 Year or More) • Study the possibility of reducing the number of worksheets from 3 to 2: • Section A- Incarceration In/Out • Section B- Sentence Length • Driven by historical sentencing data

  6. Data Analysis • Staff is utilizing FY1999 – FY2003 Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) data • FY2003 is complete • Only truth-in-sentencing cases are included • Analysis is being conducted by guidelines offense group • First group analyzed was Schedule I/II drugs: • Make up 32% of all guidelines cases • Disposition and sentence length vary widely by primary offense

  7. FY1999-2003 Drug Schedule I/II PSI Cases Analyzed *Held out of analysis due to extremely high incarceration rate

  8. Predictive Power of Disposition Models

  9. Extralegal Factors Which Predict Disposition Outcome • Jury trial • Pre-trial status • Male offender • Nonwhite offender • Educational level • Drug abuse apparent • Committed for mental health treatment • Judicial region and circuit

  10. Legal Factors Which Predict Disposition Outcome • Primary offense* • Primary offense additional counts* • Additional offenses* • Knife or firearm in possession at time of offense* • Mandatory firearm conviction for current event* • Prior convictions/adjudications* • Number of prior incarcerations* • Number of prior felony drug convictions* * On current Drug Schedule I/II Section A worksheet

  11. Legal Factors Which Predict Disposition Outcome (cont.) • Number of prior felony person convictions • Number of prior felony property convictions • Number of prior probation/parole revocations • Drug type/amount (1 gm or more of meth, cocaine, heroin) • Possession + 2 or more prior Schedule I/II felonies* • Legal restraint* • Number of prior misdemeanor convictions * On current Drug Schedule I/II Section A worksheet

  12. Exploration of Different Worksheet Structures in Drug Schedule I/II Cases • Is it feasible to reduce the number of worksheets from 3 to 2? • A proposed sentencing model incorporating the legal factors was developed. Cases were scored on the accompanying worksheet and their scores were compared with their observed outcomes. • Analysis showed that simplification of the worksheets can be achieved only at the expense of a loss in the statistical power of the sentencing model. • Predictive accuracy of the proposed model peaked at 64% - lower than that achieved under the current model. • Exploring the possibility of revising the worksheets to reflect the current definition of a prison inmate appears to be a better strategy. • Section A – In/Out (Incarceration 1 year or more) • Section B – Probation or Incarceration up to 12 months • Section C – Sentence Length (1 year or more)

  13. Potential Sentencing Guidelines Structure Conviction Section A: Incarceration 1 Yr or more Yes/No Recommendation No Yes Section B: Probation or Incarceration up to 12 months Recommendation Section C: Sentence Length Recommendation - Incarceration 1 Yr or more Probation Incarceration Up to 12 months

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