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What Do the Numbers Tell Us?

What Do the Numbers Tell Us?

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What Do the Numbers Tell Us?

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  1. What Do the Numbers Tell Us? ULI Terwilliger Center for Housing David Crowe Chief Economist

  2. Comparable Progress To DateCurrent Production Relative to 2000-2002 Levels

  3. What’s taking single-family so long?

  4. Household Formations (000s)

  5. Employment Levels – Subpar increases

  6. High Delinquency Inventory But Varies Foreclosure inventory plus 90-day+ delinquencies month’s supply at annual sales rate Foreclosure inventory plus 90-day+ delinquencies U.S. = 8.4 months

  7. House Prices Have Yet to ReboundMeasures of house prices

  8. Credit Standards Still Very Tight FICO Scores of Closed vs Denied Conventional Purchase Loans

  9. Builders Losing a Sale Because of Appraisal

  10. Housing Permits By Current Performance - MSAs

  11. Policy Uncertainties • Dodd-Frank regulations • QM – what is a mortgage? • QRM – what is a safe mortgage? • Tax reform • Mortgage interest deduction • Marginal tax rates • Debt/deficit reduction • Less government spending.. where? • Reduced tax breaks • GSE future • When, how, what? • Election

  12. Questions?Answers: www.housingeconomics.comeyeonhousing.wordpress.com