Fast Track to Realisation of High Speed Rail System in India A Multi-criteria Approach

1. Fast Track to Realisation of High Speed Rail System in IndiaA Multi-criteria Approach PravinPradhan, Senior Executive Director Standards Electrical, Ganesh, Director Standards Electrical

2. Why there is no High Speed Rail (HSR) in India ? What are ill effects of delay in decision making ? What are the drivers for HSR in India? What have other countries done for HSR ? What is the Fast Track for HSR in India ?

3. Discussion on… • Introduction • Present Scenario of High Speed Trains • Infrastructure Requirement of HSR • Magnitude of Costs of HSR • High Speed Rail as a System • Energy Security • Operating and Maintenance Cost of HSR • Carbon Footprint of High Speed Rail System • Conclusion

4. Introduction … • Transport system shall be “Harbinger Of Growth” of the growth of the economy in place of its “Derived Demand” . • Transport being an effective catalyst for economy has led to Transport Oriented Development (TOD) and so future Growth Centers. • SEZs have not brought desirable results – why ? • Fragile Energy Security of our country is the major drivers for energy efficient mode of public transport

5. Introduction … • Integrated Transport Policy 2001 of Planning Commission of India • public funding for freight corridor • public private partnership (PPP) mode of funding has been considered for the High Speed Passenger Traffic corridor . • No PPP : because of the high infrastructure cost and longer gestation period. • Operation & maintenance (O&M) cost of passenger traffic is cross-subsidised from freight traffic –an impediment for attracting PPP.

6. Introduction … • UIC Findings: • Worldwide Revenue generation from fares can’t recover the capital cost leaving few exceptions. • Only O&M cost can be self funding. • Proper planning and optimum use of trains & infrastructures : ensures the O&M costs of high speed trains less than that of existing trains running at 110-130 KMPH • Fragile Energy Security and Most Energy Crisis Scenario 2031-32

7. Introduction … • Transport Oriented Development (TOD) : Holistic view of HSR system -complimentary with other modes of transport can look for fortune in the bottom of pyramid. • Integrated Transport Policy of 2012 compares the economic and social costs of movement of per passenger per km -supports passenger traffic movement by HSR • Comparable O&M cost - a driver for aggressive fare structure –attracts road transport users with above 500 Km lead to shift to HSR and compels planners to invest public funds. • Public funding is the only Option -financially viable and the most logical. • If infrastructures is built with public funds , at later stage we can attract private funds for owning and O & M of more trains followed by building of infrastructure and O&M of high speed trains.

8. Present Scenario of High Speed Rails in India

9. HSR on Existing Infrastucture • Indian Railways is prepared for running trains at speed 160 kmphon existing infrastructure (NDLS-Mumbai and NDL-HWH) and with existing rolling stocks. • Can we classify train running at 160 kmph as High Speed Trains as per UIC standards ? Does it meet our requirements ? • For 200 kmphtrain running on existing track , majority of infrastructures are yet to be realised. These are : • Preparedness of track ,bridges, OHE • barricading of tracks • cab signalling ,etc.

10. HSR on Existing Infrastucture • Problems of Running Mixed Speed Traffic: • Differential speeds ranging from 75 kmph to 160 kmph (or 200 kmph) requires precedence , so frequent braking and acceleration. • NDLS-Mumbai and NDL-HWH routes have utilisation even above 100%. Capacity utilisation on 62% of total BG sectional links is above 80%. • Running high speed trains and freight trains on the same track will increase maintenance requirements of infrastructure , which adversely effect the section capacity and increase O & M costs. • It is an energy inefficient propositions ,also.

11. Infrastructure Requirement for HSR

12. Infrastructure Requirements

13. Diverse Requirements • Infrastructure requirements for High speed trains and heavy haul freight trains are diverse. • Not recommended to have mixed operation and high speed trains require dedicated infrastructure. • Operating trains at high speed requires: • Special trains. : require “train sets” instead of conventional trains (locomotive and cars), because of the power-to-weight ratio and various other technical reasons, such as aerodynamic conditions, reliability and safety. • Special dedicated lines :Conventional lines, even with major upgrades, are unable to operate at more than 200-220km/h. The layout parameters, transverse sections, track quality, OHE and power supply, and special environmental conditions must be able to sustain high operational speeds. • Special signalling system: In-cab signalling is absolutely necessary for high speed operation as Line side signals are no longer useable at more than 200km/h because they may not always be observed in time.

14. Costs of High Speed Rails

15. Costs of High Speed Rails • Cost of a new HSR corridor depend on a large number of parameters , such as • topography through which the corridor passes , • length of elevated tracks , tunnels , OHE, Signalling Arrangement • development of connections between stations and city centres, • type of rolling stocks ,etc. • Consequently, detailed studies on traffic forecasting, costs and benefits which examine all the positive and negative impacts of a project —including calculating the costs of doing nothing— are needed. • Average costs in Europe • Construction of 1 km of new high speed line €12-30M • Maintenance of 1 km of new high speed line €70,000 per year • Cost of a high speed train (350 places) €20-25M • Maintenance of a high speed train €1M per year (2€/km - 500,000km / train & year)

16. Costs of High Speed Rails • As per International Standards, the approximate cost of constructing a HSR corridor ( based on year 2008 ):

17. Costs of High Speed Rails • Cost of Not Taking Decision • Social and environmental costs, -appear to be intangible in nature, but have much higher costs, are neither being considered nor quantified. • These costs favour HSR on electric traction, when compared with road, air and diesel traction . Hence, HSR shall be considered as a system and a change in perception is required for deciding investment pattern.

18. High Speed Rail as a System

19. HSR-a Very Complex System HSR comprises of the state of the art of many different elements: • Railway System : Railway Infrastructure ( civil engineering structures , tracks, OHE, Signaling system) , Rolling Stock ( appropriate technology, comfort), Train O & M , Railway Stations. • Decision Railway stations/terminals is to be based on – its locations, distance from city centers and its connectivity ,public transport interchange , cost & availability of the land ,issues with land acquisition ,growth of economy , ridership of various other modes of transport ,real state investment, etc.

20. HSR-a Very Complex System • Finance includes financial support from local bodies , state or central government , projected ridership, projected benefits to non-riders, such as congestion relief on other modes of transportation, cost of technology , quantification of benefits of sustainable development, etc., cost of maintaining status-quo ,i.e. not taking decision in favour of HSR. • Environmental Lobbies opposing land acquisition and deforestation shall be brought in favour of HSR by educating the public about the Carbon Footprint of various modes of transport . HSR as the cleanest mode of transport shall be accepted by everybody .

21. High Speed System for India Take off depend how all the composite elements are considered and adapted. Factors to the considered in Indian context : • TOD shall be part of regional planning & development • Integration with existing modes of transport for improving accessibility and ridership, • Inter-operatability on existing lines to connect city centers or population hubs, • Integrated Transport Policy deciding region specific breakeven distances and optimal traffic flow for various potential/available modes of transport , • geographical spread of the population and demographic changes , • progressively high import bill of crude oil , • excessive pressure on the economic centers • oversaturated trunk routes of Indian railways, • Energy Security Therefore, instead of considering High Speed Rail in isolation, it shall be considered as system ,i.e. instead of comparing of advantages & disadvantages of various modes of transport , a transport system shall be considered for maximising the benefits .

22. Energy Security Progressively Growing More Fragile

23. Problems • Energy Security - a growing concern because India’s energy needs are growing with rising income levels and growing population. • India is one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. Between 2006 and 2010, India’s GDP has a CAGR of 8.2%, while global GDP has a CAGR of 4.5%. • Between 2006 and 2010, India’s primary energy consumption increased at a CAGR of 8.3%, from 381.4 MTOE to 524.2 MTOE. • Coal , oil and natural gas accounts for 52.9%, 29.6% and 10.6%, respectively, of the primary energy consumption. • Oil has been the most critical of all primary sources of energy sources as over the past few years , our dependence on imported oil has increased because of progressively increased gap between demand and stagnant domestic production , which has threatened nation’s Energy Security and affected Economic & Political sovereignty .

24. Dependence on Imported Crude

25. External Factors • Disruption in crude oil supplies - a cause for concern for India. • Middle East and North Africa, which supplies 60% of India’s oil requirements, have witnessed high degree of geopolitical volatility in recent times. • Triggered a drop in crude oil production resulting in increased crude oil prices driving up inflation in India . • According to Goldman Sachs, the increase in oil price by US$10 per barrel could potentially slow India’s GDP growth by 0.4%. • In addition, the increase in oil prices results in fluctuations in foreign exchange reserves. • Recent depreciation of the rupee raised the cost of crude oil imports for India, which in turn has led to increase inflationary pressure on the economy. • Further , rising oil import raises our trade deficit. Notably, the import of crude oil and oil products rose from US$50.3 billion in FY06 to US$115.9 billion in FY11. Widening trade deficit may result in the paucity of foreign exchange reserves for the country to deploy in other critical infrastructure and social projects.

26. GoI Policy on Oil Asset Acquisition • Acquisition of oil assets abroad is emerging as a competition, especially from China, in its quest to secure oil resources. • Aggressive acquisitions of oil assets by China Investment Corp., which has a corpus of around US$375 billion is a matter of concern. • Chinese companies are supported by diplomatic initiatives of Chinese Government-they offer to invest in social infrastructure projects and the provision of soft loans to oil rich countries . • GoI is also encouraging Indian companies to expand their overseas operations. • India’s overseas investments in oil and gas lag behind that of Chinese companies.

27. GoI Policy on Oil Asset Acquisition • While Indian companies view overseas projects as a commercial activity and mostly acquire assets based on returns, Chinese national oil companies are often ready to overpay for assets economics. • Indian companies currently follow a strategy to purchase additional assets in relatively safe countries. In contrast, Chinese companies are not averse to invest in unstable regions. • From January 2010 to September 2011, Indian companies acquired US$8 billion while Chinese companies acquired assets worth nearly US$47 billion. About to lose control of our economy to country like China, which have been always threat to our sovereignty.

28. Share of Transport in Oil Consumption • Second largest commercial energy consumer is transport sector . • Within the road transport sector, the consumption of subsidized diesel by private vehicles has increased substantially; a trend that is further exacerbated by the price difference between petrol and diesel. • Prices of diesel are controlled primarily to keep a check on the cascading inflationary impact of higher freight and transportation charges on the prices of essential commodities. • Although this is a channel through which diesel prices affect the poor, the exact causal relationship between diesel price and inflation is yet to be quantified conclusively.

29. Per-Capita Energy consumption (PEC) and Energy intensity in India Decrease in energy intensity consistently from 1985-86 represents inappropriate use of energy or increase on non-productive share of energy . This trend has to be controlled with immediate effect in order to prevent worsening scenario of Energy Security.

30. Subsidy by GoI • During FY 08-11 , the cumulative subsidy borne by oil companies , GoI and upstream companies was ` 2,943 billion. • Liquid fuel consumption in the transport sector accounted for 35% (approx. ` 1030 billion) of our total petroleum products consumption. • This is tax payer’s money , half of it which could have been used to create approx. 500 km of High Speed Lines @ Euro 15 million per Km. ( UIC Report.)

31. Vicious Cycle • Existing Foreign exchange rate of the currencies is in favour of a few developed countries , which makes dollar many times costlier in comparison with rupee . • Higher GDP drives higher demand of diesel – progressively increased dependence on imported fuel. • Creates further pressure on economy , by exporting our natural resources in order to achieve a reasonable Balance of Trade. • These all leads to the exploitation of our country.

32. Vicious Cycle • Existing Foreign exchange rate of the currencies is in favour of a few developed countries , which makes dollar many times costlier in comparison with rupee . • Creates further pressure on economy , by exporting our natural resources in order to achieve a reasonable Balance of Trade. • These all leads to the exploitation of our country. • Energy security can be increased by reducing the need for imported energy by substituting it with other forms of energy. Though this does not reduce the need for total energy, it reduces import dependence. • If the domestic substitutes increase dependence on one particular fuel, however, it can increase domestic supply risk. Conversely, if substitutes diversify the domestic energy mix, they can also reduce supply risk particularly if the substitutes are local renewable. Some important options include: • Electrification of railways can replace diesel trains.With crude oil at US$70 a barrel, electric traction can be economically attractive on routes with lower traffic density than before. • Such electrification can lead to the substitution of imported diesel with domestic coal. • Use of Rapid Mass Transit System for Cities and HSR for Intercity Transport

33. Measures for Energy Security Key method for improving energy security in the transport sector is to reduce the overall demand for energy by the sector. Three key ways : • Strategic decision to reduce dependence on imported oil by shifting to Electrical Mobility, i.e. HSR , Rapid Mass Transit System, Electric Buses, Electric Traction, etc. • Improving the energy efficiency of individual transport modes. • Modal shift away from transport modes with high energy consumption per passenger kilometer or per tonnekilometre. • Reduction in the demand for transport.

34. Operating and Maintenance Cost of HSR

35. General Perception- Wrong ? • There is very high operating and maintenance ( O & M) cost of high speed trains. • Normally , we consider the specific energy consumption per seat or per tons. Energy cost is just one of the factors in O&M costs. • Department of Research, Training and Cientific Cooperation of UIC has a Study and Research group for economics and transport operation , which has carried out an detailed study on “Relationship between rail service operating direct costs and speed” . • This study reveals the fact that O&M cost of high speed is cheaper than train running at low speed 110-130 Kmph .

36. Cost Components for HSR O & M

37. Cost Components for HSR O & M

38. Cost Components for HSR O & M

39. Relationship among various Cost Components

40. Direct Operating Costs and Maximum and Average Speed

41. Direct Operating Costs and Lead

42. Direct Operating Costs and Turnaround Time

43. Carbon Footprint of High Speed Rail System

44. Economy :External Costs

45. Energy Efficiency & Emission

46. Land Use

47. Conclusion

48. Conclusion • Holistic and Futuristic Nation Oriented Approach is required for planning of infrastructure in our country giving due weightage to important stake holders and actors. • High Sensitivity of GDP growth to oil price , which is out of control. • Most Energy Crisis Scenario by 2031-32 ,if we are not able to make our transport system 50% more efficient and winning back traffic to Railways. • Visionary like Dr A P J A Kalam has been advocating for Energy Security and Energy Independence since 2005. • Proper Demand Side Management and Energy Efficiency measures such as High Speed Rails and Commutor Trains on Electric Traction and more and more Electrification can save us from Energy Crisis Scenario of 2031-32 by reducing the requirement of oil import by 26%.

49. Conclusion • HSR system is to be considered in totality , investment on these projects is financially lucrative. • Planning of development of a region shall be Transport Oriented Development which strikes a balance among various available and future modes of transport. • Such integrated transport system for the region decides the optimum lead for various modes of transport, which will not only makes the fare affordable for the mass , but make it a sustainable development. • Public Funding is must to start with . O & M can be outsourced with optimum utilisation of assets and aggressive planning. • Only then PPP will follow. • Reduction in dependence on imported oil will save precious foreign exchange , which can be used for more productive work.

50. Questions …..?