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Inland Northwest 2009-10 Climate Recap and 2010-11 Seasonal Outlook

Inland Northwest 2009-10 Climate Recap and 2010-11 Seasonal Outlook. Dr. John Abatzoglou Department of Geography University of Idaho 10 th Annual Climate and Water Meeting: 2011 Water Year Idaho Department of Water Resources, Boise, ID. 2009 Global Recap. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/.

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Inland Northwest 2009-10 Climate Recap and 2010-11 Seasonal Outlook

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  1. Inland Northwest2009-10 Climate Recap and 2010-11 Seasonal Outlook Dr. John Abatzoglou Department of Geography University of Idaho 10th Annual Climate and Water Meeting: 2011 Water Year Idaho Department of Water Resources, Boise, ID

  2. 2009 Global Recap http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

  3. 2010 to date Jan-Sep 2010: Tied with 1998 for warmest on record http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/

  4. CPC Seasonal Outlook: Oct 2009 DJF MAM

  5. Western US Winter 2009-10 Recap Oct-Mar Precip (% of Normal) 1 April SWE (% of Norma) Westmap, WRCC NOAA

  6. Well Behaved El Nino

  7. Well Behaved El Nino 700 mb Vector Wind Anomalies 1 Jan – 20 Mar 1983, 1998, 2010 Proxy for anomalies in winds, temperature (via advection) and precipitation in the mountainous West 1983 2010 1998

  8. The Great EL-to-La Flip of 2010 Historically about a third of El Nino events are followed by a La Nina The great flip of 2010 rivals that of 1973

  9. The Great EL-to-La Flip of 2010

  10. The Great EL-to-La Flip of 2010 Oct-Mar Precip (% of Normal) Apr-Jul Precip (% of Normal) Westmap, WRCC NOAA

  11. Idaho Recap

  12. Idaho Recap Notable Climate Oddities of 2009-2010 (1) Balmy Jan-Mar (4-6F above normal) (2) The 75 day-long April (3) A “Cool” Summer (4) WY 2009-2010 Near Normal T&P

  13. NOV DEC JAN FEB

  14. MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE

  15. SNOTEL http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotel/snoareas.html

  16. 2010-2011 Seasonal Outlook Basis for Outlook • Long-lived boundary conditions (climate-memory) • Long-term trends • Soil moisture (summer) / snow cover (winter-spring) • Ocean Temperatures • Statistical Tools • Low-frequency Climate Variability (e.g., ENSO) • Climate Models • CFS: Climate Forecast System

  17. Global SST Departures (oC) Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 2.0°C below-average east of the dateline in the tropical Pacific http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/

  18. Recent Evolution of ENSO ConditionsSST Departures (oC) La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño Neutral La Niña

  19. ENSO Forecast Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 19 October 2010). Observations in the NINO3.4 region indicate La Nina. Atmospheric response (SOI), surface winds are in concert and reinforcing SST Strong La Nina conditions, possibly strongest since 1955-56 Atmospheric manifestation of El Nino typically begin in Nov.

  20. CFS: Monthly Outlook: Nov-Apr

  21. CPC: Winter Outlook DJF

  22. Implications for Idaho

  23. Rain Gauge Calisthenics

  24. La Nina’s Footprint in IdahoApril SWE (% Departure from Normal) Composite (top 10 La Nina’s)

  25. MEI vs. April 1 SWE Northern Idaho Central Idaho La Niña El Niño neutral

  26. Climate Risks 2010-2011 • Increased Risk of Wet/Cool Late Winter and Cool Spring • Freezing Level 100-200m lower during La Nina Events • La Nina signal strong through February - we’ve been tricked before…

  27. Summary • 1) La Nina generally associated with above normal precipitation across the state, impacts accentuated over the northern portion of the state • Strongest in late winter due to the enhancement of the polar jet and direction of storm track over the northern tier of the US • Increase in frequency of measurable precip days during La Nina and likelihood of heavier events, net 5-20% increase observed during past La Nina’s • 2) La Nina generally associated with cooler than normal condition • Particularly late winter-spring conditions • Lower snow levels means more precipitation retained as snow • 3) A strong La-Nina is likely to result in “real” winter for Idaho snowpack and favorable water supply outlook for 2011

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