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Climate Recap and Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Impacts of El Niño and PDO

This presentation by Dr. Nate Mantua from the University of Washington reviews climate variations and projections for the Pacific Northwest as of October 2006. It highlights the region's warmest temperatures on record in 2006, the significant snowpack melt, and expectations of a weak to moderate El Niño for the upcoming seasons. Analysis of precipitation data and temperature forecasts underscores the need for the Pacific Northwest to strengthen its resilience to climate change, supported by NOAA and the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program.

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Climate Recap and Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Impacts of El Niño and PDO

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  1. Climate recap and outlook Nate Mantua, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Kelso, WA October 3, 2006

  2. The CSES - Climate Impacts Group http://cses.washington.edu/cig/ • Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change • Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program

  3. global temperatures continue to run high http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

  4. The pattern is global http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

  5. Current drought

  6. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

  7. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

  8. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

  9. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

  10. Daily Temperatures +0.90ºC +0.81ºC

  11. 2006 snow pack • Warm weather in May started a rapid melt of the PNWs abundant snow pack

  12. Our hot-dry summer • For OR-ID-WA, May-June-July 2006 was warmest on record (back to 1895) • June-July-August was 3rd warmest on record

  13. 28-day mean stream flow from the USGS

  14. Oct 1st estimated soil moisture percentiles • Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor

  15. Last year’s outlook • The ENSO outlook: La Nada (“normal”) • PNW climate outlook: odds favoring a “warm” winter and spring

  16. IRI ENSO Forecast Summary • Forecasts from October 2005 called for Nino34 ranging from -0.2 to +0.6, with an average of ~+0.2 http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html#figure

  17. Oct 12, 2005 NOAA NCEP ENSO forecasts http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.html

  18. Nov-Mar 2006 SST anomalies: a mild La Niña for the Pacific

  19. Last year’s forecast (from Oct 20) DJF temp 2005-06 FMA temp 2006

  20. Last year’s precipitation forecasts for 2005-2006: issued Oct 20 2005

  21. The forecast Forecasts … ? Cartoon obtained from: http://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/c/crystal_ball.asp

  22. Global Ocean Surface Temperatures: July 2-September 30 2006

  23. The tropical ocean is warm http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/l

  24. El Niño is simmering • Tropical ocean temperatures have been warmer than average since mid-May, and have already crossed the “El Niño” threshold

  25. The latest ENSO forecasts See http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO European Center Forecast summaries NOAA NCEP

  26. Average El Niño winter precip: 1916-2003 • Dry on the western, wetter slopes, slightly wet or near average for the “rainshadow” areas From http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/maps

  27. Pacific Ocean Outlook Summary • Current forecasts rate weak-to-moderate El Niño as most likely situation for 2006/07 • PDO: A simple forecast with skill relies on “PDO persistence + ENSO influence” (see Newman et al. (2003), J. Climate) • Expect weak warm phase PDO conditions for 2006/7 • PDO = +0.3 to +0.8 st devs for Nino34 = +0.5 to +1.5 • A Note on Last year…

  28. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov OND precip JFM precip

  29. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov OND temperature JFM temperature

  30. The Bottom line • a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons • because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above-average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely • El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of-season snow pack See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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