1 / 30

Climate Variations and Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Trends and Predictions (2006)

This report by Dr. Philip Mote from the University of Washington discusses the climate impacts on the Pacific Northwest as of October 2006. It highlights the region's increasing vulnerability to climate variation, supported by NOAA's Climate Program. Notable points include a record warm period in May-July 2006, the implications of El Niño, and predictions for continuing warm winters and dry conditions. Key factors influencing the region’s climate involve ocean temperature patterns and the ongoing trends in snowpack and streamflow.

nizana
Télécharger la présentation

Climate Variations and Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Trends and Predictions (2006)

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Climate recap and outlook Philip Mote, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Boise, ID October 17, 2006

  2. The CSES - Climate Impacts Group http://cses.washington.edu/cig/ • Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change • Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program

  3. global warming http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

  4. The pattern is global http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

  5. Current drought

  6. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

  7. Daily Temperatures +1.23ºC +0.89ºC

  8. 2006 snow pack

  9. 2006 snow pack • Warm weather in May started a rapid melt of the PNWs abundant snow pack

  10. Our hot-dry summer • For OR-ID-WA, May-June-July 2006 was warmest on record (back to 1895) • June-July-August was 3rd warmest on record

  11. Current stream flow from the USGS

  12. Oct 9 estimated soil moisture percentiles • Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor

  13. Last year’s outlook • The ENSO outlook: La Nada (“normal”) • PNW climate outlook: odds favoring a “warm” winter and spring

  14. IRI ENSO Forecast Summary • Forecasts from October 2005 called for Nino34 ranging from -0.2 to +0.6, with an average of ~+0.2 http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html#figure

  15. Oct 12, 2005 NOAA NCEP ENSO forecasts http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.html

  16. Nov-Mar 2006 SST anomalies: a mild La Niña for the Pacific

  17. Last year’s forecast (from Oct 20) DJF temp 2005-06 FMA temp 2006

  18. Last year’s precipitation forecasts for 2005-2006: issued Oct 20 2005

  19. The tropical ocean is warm http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/l

  20. El Niño is simmering • Tropical ocean temperatures have been warmer than average since mid-May, and have already crossed the “El Niño” threshold

  21. The latest ENSO forecasts See http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO European Center Forecast summaries NOAA NCEP

  22. Average El Niño winter precip: 1916-2003 • Dry for most of Idaho From http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/maps

  23. Pacific Ocean Outlook Summary • Current forecasts rate weak-to-moderate El Niño as most likely situation for 2006/07 • PDO: A simple forecast with skill relies on “PDO persistence + ENSO influence” (see Newman et al. (2003), J. Climate) • Expect weak warm phase PDO conditions for 2006/7 • PDO = +0.3 to +0.8 st devs for Nino34 = +0.5 to +1.5 • A Note on Last year…

  24. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov OND precip JFM precip

  25. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov OND temperature JFM temperature

  26. Another factor in seasonal forecasts Idaho December-January-February temperatures

  27. The Bottom line • a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons • because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above-average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely • El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of-season snow pack See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

More Related