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Post-Processing at DWD Sebastian Trepte (FEZE)

COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009. Post-Processing at DWD Sebastian Trepte (FEZE). COSMO-EU, COSMO-DE, GME, IFS (ECMWF). Grid-based forecasts COSMO, GME - derived products (thunderstorm ind., weather-related elements, vorticity,

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Post-Processing at DWD Sebastian Trepte (FEZE)

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  1. COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009 Post-Processing at DWD Sebastian Trepte (FEZE) COSMO-EU, COSMO-DE, GME, IFS (ECMWF) • Grid-based forecasts COSMO, GME • - derived products (thunderstorm ind., weather-related elements, vorticity, • advection of temperature, …) • - cross-sections through model domain • - meteograms at selected grid points • - prognostic temps at selected grid points

  2. COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009 • Grid-based or rural district based probability forecasts • - COSMO-DE interpretation (smoothing/calibration: Neighbourhood method) • - SRNWP-PEPS (Ensemble of 23 European regional models incl. COSMO-EU) • - BlitzMOS (GME, Germany) • - WarnMOS (GME and IFS, Germany) • Object-related forecasts • - CellMOS (GME, Germany)

  3. COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009 Location forecasts • DMO → stations (COSMO-EU, GME) • - transformation into time series • “optimized” DMO (site-specific properties altitude, mountain, coast, sea, …) • OOG (Objective Optimized Guidance) • - model combination and weighting (MOS, COSMO-EU, -DE, GME, IFS) • - corrections for model deficiencies: nowcasting systems, current observations

  4. COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009 Location forecasts (cont.) • AutoSWIS (Road Weather Information System) • - forecasts of weather and road surface conditions (MOS, COSMO-EU, GME) • energy balance model (observations at stations and automatic systems • at the roads) • Aviation-related products • - MOS-AUTOTAF (GME, Germany+) • - Toptherm • intensity of thermal lift (COSMO-EU vertical profiles, temperature, • wind, humidity, radiation and precipitation) • - ADWICE • Advanced diagnostic and warning system for aircraft • icing environments (COSMO-EU, observations, radar)

  5. Model forecasts (long-term time series) Observations at stations (long-term time series) Multiple Linear Regression (minimize RMSE) MOS coefficients current model forecasts current observations Operational forecast MOS forecast Standard Model Output Statistics (MOS) at DWD Development

  6. MOS approaches at DWD • Station data (Standard MOS) • GME-MOS • IFS-MOS • MOSMIX (mixing of IFS- and GME-MOS) • AUTOTAF (forecasts for airports based on GME-MOS) • Station data to rural districts • WarnMOS (weather warning guidance based on GME and IFS) • At grid points • BlitzMOS (lightnings and thunderstorms) • At moving systems • CellMOS (thunderstorm detecting and tracking) • Kind of MOS forecasts: • Deterministic • Probabilistic • Derived elements (e.g. weather conditions)

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