CIPD 12 March 2009

1. CIPD 12 March 2009 David Hutcheson MBCI Glen Abbot Ltd.

2. Background: What is a Pandemic?

3. The definition and importance • Epidemic • Serious outbreak in a single community population • Pandemic • Epidemic which spreads around the world affecting hundreds and thousands of people • Pandemic Flu is currently the number one risk on the UK Risk Register.

4. Spanish flu 1918-19 20-50 million deaths worldwide (>WW1) 200,000 in UK Asian flu 1957-58 1 mill+ deaths worldwide Hong Kong flu 1968 1 mill+ deaths worldwide Normal inter-pandemic period 39-42yrs Now 41 yrs since last pandemic…… “Sudden … unpredictable … inevitable” WHO

5. How Does it Spread?

7. Some Figures • Pandemics last 1-2 years • Come in waves • Few months in between • Successive waves may be more severe • Each wave lasts about 15 weeks • Absence rates differ between areas (flu pockets)

8. Clinical Infection Rate • The Clinical Infection Rate (CIR) is the ‘hit rate’ % of the population affected. • This follows a standard pattern.

9. WHO Alert Phases

10. United Kingdom Alert Levels • When the international situation reaches WHO Phase 6 there will be 4 alert levels in the UK: • UK alert level 1 No cases in the UK • UK alert level 2 Virus isolated in the UK • UK alert level 3 Outbreak (s) in the UK • UK alert level 4 Widespread activity across the UK

11. The Myths! • 50% of your staff will be off • We are going to catch Avian Flu • Tamiflu will save us • The annual flu jab will stop it • Doctors will prescribe antibiotics • All those migrating birds are the problem • Don’t eat chicken! • It’s all a hype and won’t happen

12. So…a pandemic is the main threat to the UK Why are HR Departments so disinterested??

13. There must be a reason! • 95% of Corporate Comms departments agreed to be involved first time • 60% of Operations Departments agreed first time • Even 40% of Finance Departments agreed! BUT……….. • Only 15% of HR departments agreed to be involved first time

14. You are the most critical! • Pandemics will be an HR problem • People will be ill, not systems • You will be needed immediately as people ask questions • You CANNOT make it up on the spot! • This is when you will prove you are worth having! • But you don’t want to play……..

15. So prove me wrong!

16. Aberdeen Medical Ltd • You are a manufacturing company who produce three medical products • Sutures (time critical) • Sterilised bone wax • Sterilised heart stents (high profit) • 1000 employees • 300 in each of the Production departments (see above) • 70% of Production staff are women • 60% of the women have children • 100 in management and other back office tasks

17. The Problem..... • Your company has no Pandemic Plan • The WHO have just declared that they are moving to Level 4 • You have a borrowing limit of £9M • You are currently at £8.6M • Your Board meets in 30 minutes • You need to have a plan for them

18. Planning Assumptions • The number of staff off will follow the normal pandemic model • Each member of staff will be off for 8-14 days • You have a contract which means you will be sued if you fail to deliver your heart stents • Sutures are dissolvable and will degrade within 7 days if not packaged

19. Target • 10 minutes to discuss what questions staff will ask and what answers you should give • 10 minutes for responses • 10 minutes feedback and discussion

20. We Have the Solution!

21. Thank you! • David Hutcheson MBCI • Glen Abbot Ltd • David.hutcheson@glenabbot.co.uk • 01738 580580