1. An Outcome Mapping Learning Community Webinar Ricardo Wilson-Grau in Rio de Janeiro 15 December 2010

2. The fish soup development story Inspired by Monika Jetzin, Global Water Partnership, Hungary

3. Inputs or resources • Parents get together fish, fresh vegetables, water, barley, spices, pot, source of heat • Activities • Mother or father carefully prepare and cook all the ingredients • Output • Children taste the most nourishing fish soup in the world Parents control • Outcome • Children consider the soup delicious and eat fish soup once a week for the rest of their lives • Impact • Children are healthy adults Parents influence Parents contribute a bit

4. The difference between simple and complex fish soups • Example adapted from Getting to Maybe, How the World Is Changed?, Frances Westley, Brenda Zimmerman, Michael Q. Patton, Random House Canada, 2006. • Inspired by the IDRC EcoHealth and Complexity study group, with special thanks to Andrés Sánchez. ?

5. A simple situation The relations of cause and effect are known. The parents follow the great grandmother’s recipe for fish soup. The quantity and nature of the ingredients are spelled out, as well as the order in how they should be combined. The parents do not need expertise although of course experience in cooking helps. If they follow the recipe they will produce basically the same soup week after week.

6. If only life were so simple! In the real world, the results can be much less certain. • The great grandmother’s recipe is lost. • Her recommended fish is not available in the market every week of the year. • The family’s buying power varies from year to year. • Children are different and change as they grow: • One becomes a vegetarian. • Another goes on a diet. • A third is simply rebellious. • Outside factors and actors influence the children – school, TV, friends and so forth

7. In such a complex situation • The relationships of cause and effect are unknown until the outcomes emerges. • To produce a nutritious soup that their children will eat once a week for the rest of their lives, the recipe is less important than the parents’ relationships with each son and daughter, and theirs with their social environment. • More than cooking experience, parent’s must rely on their sensitivity to their children’s needs and their own creativity in the kitchen. • And they must accept uncertainty about the results.

8. When the organisation and its reality are substantially complex

9. Conventional thinking… Vision and Mission IMPACT OUTCOMES OUTPUTS ACTIVITIES INPUTS Plan Time Ricardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.net Inspired by Jeff Conklin, cognexus.org

10. … clashes with relationships of cause and effect that are unknown Vision and Mission IMPACT OUTCOMES OUTPUTS ACTIVITIES INPUTS Plan Time Ricardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.net Inspired by Jeff Conklin, cognexus.org

11. Vision and Mission … clashes with relationships of cause and effect that are unknown OUTPUT OUTPUT OUTPUT ACTIVITY OUTPUT ACTIVITY OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME INPUTS ACTIVITY Plan OUTPUT Time INPUTS ACTIVITY Ricardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.net INPUTS INPUTS

12. Implications for Outcome Mapping

13. Simple situations

14. Simple situations

15. Simple situations

16. Simple situations Complex situations

17. Simple situations Complex situations

18. Simple situations Complex situations

19. Simple situations Complex situations

20. Simple situations Complex situations

21. Do you have questions or comments? Thank you!