" Advancing Knowledge for Human Security and Development“

1. Flood Conference – ICLR, May 6-8, 2008, Toronto, Canada Vulnerability Assessment to Floods at the Local Level Dr.-Ing. Jörn Birkmann, Krings, S. and Renaud, F. "Advancing Knowledge for Human Security and Development“ United Nations UniversityInstitute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

2. Content • Definition of Vulnerability • Conceptual Framework • Assessment Process - Questionnaire • Selected Results • Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability • Conclusions Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

3. Vulnerability Definitions “... a human condition or process resulting from physical, social, economic, and environmental factors which determine the likelihood and scale of damage from the impact of a given hazard“ (UNDP, 2004) “... the likelihood of injury, death, loss, disruption of livelihood or other harm in an extreme event, and/or unusual difficulties in recovering from such effects“ (Wisner, 2002) Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

4. Vulnerability to Floods in Germany Coping Capacity Exposure Vulnerability Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

5. The BBC-Framework Source: Bogardi/Birkmann (2004) and Cardona (1999/2001) Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

6. Sub-National Vulnerability Index • 34 demographic variablese.g. age, education, income • Map shows general vulnerability Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu Data: Federal statistical office 2007, BKG 2007

7. Methodology & FocusLocal Level Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

8. Overview Methodology HH Survey • METHOD • - Household Survey • Standardized interview (closed & open questions) • Quantitative assessment • GOAL - generation of new indicators: • Exposure and knowledge • Susceptibility • Coping Capacity • SAMPLE • - 500 HH per city (selection through city) • Consideration of exposure (HQ 100, HQ 500) & • Socio-economic differences Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

9. Case Study Selection in Cologne [jb1] Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

10. Selected ResultsCologne Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

11. Risk Perception: Natural Hazards Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

12. Do you know whether you livein a flood prone area?Did you get or have you gathered information regarding floods? Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

13. Exposure and Flood Information NO, I did not get any information, nor I gathered information about flooding YES, I requested information about floods when I bought/rented house/flat YES, I got information about flooding when I settled in the area I am living in a flood prone area I am not living in flood prone area No answer regarding exposure Exposure Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

14. Coping Capacity Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

15. Susceptibility & Coping Capacity Would you be able to evacuate without external help? Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

16. Where would you go? Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

17. Coping Capacity: Evacuation Capability Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

18. Financial Coping Capacity % of HH with an elementary risk insurance correlation coefficient: 0,529 Income classes: 1) under 500€, 2) 500 to 1000€, 3) 1000 to 1500€, …(…), 13) 6000 € and more Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

19. Vulnerability Hotspots in Cologne • Not the city centre, but the northern and southern parts are highly vulnerable. • Paticularly areas around Rodenkirchen and Weiss – high concentraton of elderly and low flood protection … Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

20. VA Critical Infrastructures Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

21. Definition “Critical infrastructures consist of those physical and information technology facilities, networks, services and assets which, if disrupted or destroyed, would have a serious impact on the health, safety, security or economic well-being of citizens (…). Critical infrastructures extend across many sectors of the economy, including banking and finance, transport and distribution, energy, utilities, health, food supply and communications, as well as key government services.” EC 2004 Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

22. VA Critical Infrastructure: Multi-Layer Society depends on Critical Infrastructures Critical Infrastructure Sector Critical Infrastructure Sector Critical Infrastructure Sector … … … … … Infrastructure Infrastructure Infrastructure Infrastructure Infrastructure … … … … … … … Component Component Component Component Component Illustration: Susanne Krings, UNU-EHS following the German Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK), Source: BBK, Newsletter 372006 Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

23. Cologne Exposure of Critical Infrastructures Example: Electricity supply system Powerplant Transfomer station High voltage power line Rhine HQ 100 HQ 500 Districts Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu Source: UNU-EHS; Data source: BKG (Basis DLM) and Cologne City Administration

24. Network and Interdependencies data source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/ wikipedia/de/e/ed/Stromversorgung.png Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

25. Different Designs of Electricity Systems The first design is highly vulnerable, as failures are likely to affect a large number households. The second design is less vulnerable as in case of a failure the area suffering a blackout is likely to be very small. Source: Verband Schweizerischer Elektrizitätsunternehmen (2008): Netzebenen. http://www.poweron.ch/de/stromnetz/netzebenen_content---1-1224.html (25.2.2008) Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

26. Ongoing Research: Objects & Structure Society depends on Critical Infrastructures Operationalisation and aggregation of data collected on the different levels of citical infrastructures as well as the finalisation of the methodology are currently being worked on at UNU-EHS Critical Infrastructure Sector Critical Infrastructure Sector Critical Infrastructure Sector … … … … … Infrastructure Infrastructure Infrastructure Infrastructure Infrastructure … … … … … … … Component Component Component Component Component Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

27. Conclusion • Vulnerability assessment at the local level can include more easily new methods and additional data collection. • Measuring susceptibility and coping capacity is crucial. • The case study of Cologne shows that people who are saying we live in a flood prone area have been less active in gathering flood information data when they choose their place of living. • Human vulnerability implies other hot-spots than financial vulnerability (city centre versus living areas). • VA of critical infrastructure is a key subject, but data gathering is a challenge. Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

28. More Information: www.ehs.unu.edu Thank You for Your Attention! birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHSbirkmann@ehs.unu.edu